“Henny Penny, more commonly known in the United States as Chicken Little and sometimes as Chicken Licken, is a European folk tale with a moral in the form of a cumulative tale about a chicken who believes that the world is coming to an end. The phrase “The sky is falling!” features prominently in the story, and has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent.”—Wikipedia.Org
I’ve been amazed (and disturbed) by the unscientific, irrational response to the spread of covid-19, the new corona virus. This response has been taken by Democrat politicians and the media, by those who accuse conservatives of denigrating science, but who themselves seem to be ignorant of the most basic precepts of epidemiology and logic.
Fortunately I don’t have to take a cudgel against those scientific ignoramuses on my own. Clarice Feldman has written a fine article on this in the American Thinker: “When All Else Fails, Try Reason.” Feldman cites an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine that says this virus “Could turn out no worse than a ‘severe seasonal influenza’ in terms of mortality.”
I’ll take another quote from that article:
“Citing an analysis of the available data from the outbreak in China, the authors note that there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the fatality rate is 2% at most, and could be “considerably less than 1%.”
“Those who have died have been elderly or were already suffering from another illness–as with ordinary flu. [emphasis added] The underlying data suggest that the symptoms vary, and fewer than one in six of the cases reported were “severe.”
“The authors note that coronavirus looks to be much less severe than other recent outbreaks of respiratory illnesses:
“[T]he overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
“The vast majority of patients recover, and among those who are hospitalized, the median stay thus far is 12 days.
“Coronavirus, they note, does spread easily, and the average infected person has infected two other people. That means the U.S. should expect the illness to gain a “foothold.” But they note travel restrictions on China (imposed by President Trump over the objections of some critics) ‘may have helped slow the spread of the virus.’ ”
I want to emphasize one of the points made in this quote. Deaths from this virus (and from the flu) strike mainly those already in ill health or the aged. I have read that the one death so far in this country is of someone who was not in good health. I myself am about to approach the tenth decade, and I’m less worried about covid-19 than I am about getting distracted while I’m driving (one of my daughters refuses to let me drive her kids to a movie.)
At any rate, prayers are in order, more than hysteria.
/applaud
Especially since, as best we can tell, it attacks the lungs– no wonder China and Iran are getting hit hard, while we’ve just got folks at nursing homes getting hit hard.
I refuse to panic just because the News Media wants me to panic.
While I’m only 65, I’ve already seen several New Media Panics over disease (and other things) which turned out to NOT BE DISASTERS.
Sorry MSN, I don’t listen to Chicken Littles.
Thanks, Dr. K, for the injection of sanity. There’s also a good piece at the Spectator that leads “The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria.” http://www.spectator.co.uk
Black swan event, except it’s probably a dark rubber ducky.
My thoughts are on a plopping down some savings on a good mutual fund. Lol.
D*MN your logic and reason! Never let a crisis go to waste. Not even a fake crisis. ORANGE MAN BAD, Bob, Orange Man bad.
This is absolutely a buying opportunity, David.
And you’ve only lost money if you’ve sold.
Bad news sells. Someone is making big bucks off of this. And if it helps to hurt Trump, so much the better as far as the Democrats are concerned.
Something strange is going on in Washington (state). I just read that 4 new deaths were reported. Is the Democratic administration putting its finger in the pie to pull out a plum?
Later bulletin (reading the full article): additional deaths were as with the first 2, in a nursing home. If you’re sick and old, worry (or pray). Otherwise, ….
Bob: US domestic politics aside where stupidity is, as you imply, rampant, do I understand you correctly to assess that the novel coronavirus will be likely nothing more than severe seasonal flu in the US? Does that conclusion apply to China? South Korea? Iran? I hope you are right (I am old and picked up three bouts of pneumonia in the past so I am a likely candidate to get kicked in the teeth – and recently returned to the US to help my sick sister; I am currently sitting but a few miles from UC Davis here in Northern California. Ironic.). I always marvel at your posts but I sense your prediction is a bit unusual prediction as I don’t think we have anywhere near enough info to make such an assertion, especially trustworthy info from China. What is the opposite of screaming “The Sky is Falling!”? Is it the posture of sticking one’s head in the sand? Perhaps there is a prudent, practical approach between those poles which looks at South Korea, Italy, and now France for early signs of possible trends? One thing is sure, that if you don’t test, you can’t know (thanks CDC, especially for sending out faulty test kits). In contrast, Singapore implemented stringent testing protocols, enforced quarantines, and got its situation into a manageable state. Granted their scale is different from the US, but early identification is key. Unfortunately, even that is extremely difficult with a disease with a potential long asymptomatic stage of between 14 and 27 days. Washington State now estimates the virus has been circulating there for six weeks. Yes, you are right that the “estimates” are that 80% of people get cold or flu symptoms and recover (we think) but 15% get severely ill and 5% end up in the Intensive Care Unit – again, all estimates. And a 2% case fatality rate CFR for this new virus is 20 times greater than the flu (.1% CFR). I say we don’t know enough to dismiss this as nothing more than maybe a bad flu season; some reports suggest (I’m being non-specific because it is difficult to get reliable data) that this goes exponential when it takes hold in a country and becomes a huge challenge for the health care system. Maybe vigilant caution and prudent planning is a better posture than blase dismissal that this is nothing too bad and is but a political or financial hoax (as some commentators think). I join you in praying and hoping this passes us all by…
Bob S, thanks for your comment and insightful analysis. All I’m doing is repeating some of what’s being reported. It is the case that so far this isn’t as bad as SARS (swine flu), but we had advance warning then. What’s puzzling is that it seems to ignore very young children, as near as I can figure from available statistics. It is clear that those already handicapped healthwise are in more danger. Virus epidemics are strange and not well understood. The Spanish flu epidemic in 1919/20 was much more severe than (my good lady reports tales she heard of coffins lined up along 5th Ave in Pittsburgh) and hit mainly young adults. I’m just listening to Alex Azar, HHS Secy, the number of cases outside China are not yet large enough to warrant calling covid-19 a pandemic. I’m fortunate to live in a semi-rural area. Were I living in east or west coast metropolitan areas I’d be much more concerned. However, the assumption of relatively low mortality is, I believe, warranted on the basis of statistics published so far.
Bob S, here’s one other point that deserves to be emphasized: the six deaths have been in only one state, Washington, and are, I believe localized in one nursing home facility.
To his credit, Dr. Drew Pinsky has been all over this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY
See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNQB-Q67DpE.
This doctor has been aggregating news for over a month as this unfolded and then building upon / revising his rough conclusions every day. I’ve been reading multiple other sites for 2-3 hours each day for the same period (once I get back to my temporary lodgings after caring for my sister); this is my primary go to site. He applies logic and his medical experience to decipher for laypersons what is going on. He reminds me of you, Bob, as a good teacher. His is to the point and evidence-based (as best he can given the mixed bag of evidence we have to deal with). I am a history major but he keeps challenging us to think different. He keeps stressing that the public in general thinks linear but this seems to go exponential once it gains traction in an area. That sort of growth is not something we are used to seeing. Also, here is a great documentary on the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic (see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c). That event a hundred years ago is admittedly different from what we are undergoing but according to Dr Steven Hatfill, a noted US viriologist who I met at a conference several years ago, this is the best model to use to wrap our minds around the possibility of how this might spread. Different virus but similar transmission methods. God bless us all…
Greg: Clip was from a while back. Dr Faucci just said today this is now a pandemic. Doctors in NYC say they will have thousands of cases in the next two weeks. This is not a matter of comparing the flu vs novel coronavirus; I think that is an apples to oranges comparison. This is genetically different (according to Washington State analysis done last week), much more contagious, with a suspected higher case fatality rate and higher hospitalization rate, no baseline vaccine available to use (like the flu), and no “herd immunity” like we have a little bit of regarding the flu. This catches fire then explodes. The South China Post (for what it is worth) says this virus seems to be between 100-1000 times more “sticky” than SARS in that it is much more likely to latch on to cells. I can’t verify that and don’t know – but that data point hovers out there and must be considered. Thankfully, it does seem to skip over children under 15 (they don’t know why yet) while spanking mainly (but not exclusively) older folks with compromising pre-conditions. Fortunately, most do ride it out (80-85%) but many (15-20%) get very sick and the fatality rate is 20 times greater than the flu. Our knowledge of this grows daily; tracking it is like riding a bucking horse. Here is Sacramento they just reported two more health care works tested positive. They’ll likely get through it (I pray) but now they are off the front lines in isolation; two less pros to deal with a growing medical situation. I wish ground truth was easier to see…my belly button, backed up by my 35 years of US and International emergency response planning, says we’re in for bad times. Praying for the TAC family…
Greg: Sorry. The clip was from today but the numbers were lagging behind (which is to be expected). Plus, although Dr Drew is right to say the media often doesn’t know what it is talking about, it is a good thing that people are finally starting to look at what is coming. Finding good info in a murky environment is hard…