Lousy Deal: A Fisk

Trump is a deal maker, first, last and always.  He just made a lousy deal:

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Israel is not mentioned and for good reason.  I have no doubt they will refuse to be part of an agreement which makes Lebanon a sanctuary for Lebanon.  Fighting ends in a war because goals have been reached or both parties are exhausted.  The US has not achieved any of its war goals.

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Laughable.  Iran has been the main supporter of terrorism against the US and that will not change.

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

Sixty days more to make a lousy deal even worse from the perspective of the US.

• Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

You should end a blockade only when you achieve your goals in a war not before.

• Upon the signing of this MOU, Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US is caving to Iran getting a toll for the use of international waters in the Strait of Hormuz.  Beyond belief.

• The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of the final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

Farcial.  The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a dime and I don’t think Congress will appropriate one red cent.  If Trump wants to waste his own fortune on this money pit, be my guest.  Trump is a sucker for pie in the sky spending to solve international polices.  He attempted this in Gaza and fell flat on his face.  This will fare no better.

• The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Giving up sanctions against the mad mullahs and getting nothing in return.

• The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Obama Deal Redux.

• Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Not the status quo for the US.

• The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard gets its resources from the sale of oil.  Funding the enemy.

• The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

And I thought the Obama deal was bad for giving a fraction of the seized assets to Iran.

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

At this rate we will be lucky if the mad mullahs don’t get a seat in the cabinet.

• After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
• The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

Why is Trump doing this?  He is spooked by the approaching midterms and wants to lower the price of oil.  He is also listening to idiots like Vice President Vance who have gone complete paleocon when it comes to implementing foreign policy.  Note that Secretary of State Rubio is staying well away from this disaster.  I think this deal will inevitably break down and the war will resume, at least I certainly hope so.  Worst move that Trump has made as President.