The usual Open Thread rules apply. Be concise, be charitable and, above all, be amusing.
Open Thread
- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
Trump must win the National vote. If you’re in a Blue state, still vote and vote Trump.
Donald- is this your projection map?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the results for Kansas (where I am) after this cycle turns from Safe Red to Likely or even Leans Red for 2028.
Yeah, that is my projection map currently.
My gut tells me not to trust the projections for Michigan and Wisconsin. I also think it’s a bad idea for Trump supporters to be doing victory laps before the election is over.
No victory laps here, just looking at the data in from early voting, mail in voting, the polls and how both campaigns are behaving.
This map seems probable to me, too. Polling companies still tend to weight Democrats by +2 to +5, from what I understand. So, any Trump advantage in the aggregate of polls is worth noting, as is the General Election aggregate (Trump +.9).
Also, “our enemies are stupid and evil; I don’t want to underestimate either category.” (Can’t remember who said that: Tucker Carlson?)
If this map makes any potential Trump voter stay home, *bury the map!!*
Sure Diocletian is probably just another Decius, but Gallienus is a pagan too! I’m sorry, but I’m not voting for Emperor this go-round. I’ve got my principles!
There’s been talk that a Trump popular vote victory equals an Electoral College landslide. Does his campaigning in blue states (MSG,etc) change that calculation? It seems like that might eat into the Harris main in those states with no benefit toward actually winning the election…?
Trump is expanding the map mostly, which is going to blue states he might be able to take: Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia. His trips to non-winnable states like California and New York is to help Republicans hold on to Congressional seats.
@CAG –> nothing wrong in being principled; there is always the Constitution Party and the Solidarity Party. But I don’t think Trump is a Gallienus or a Decius or a Diocletianus. However, given any opportunity to the Presidency, Kamala Harris would try to equal the Diocletian persecution of Christians.
@Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus — I wish!
The ONLY allowed candidates in my state are Trump, Harris, RFK Jr., Oliver (Libertarian), and Christopher Garrity (about whom I can find basically no information except for the fact he is from New Hampshire, which he seems to think is enough).
I find this map, which just came out, a little more convincing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COqgEBpWxnE
The main differences are that it gives Michigan to Harris and takes Pennsylvania as too close to call. The result is Trump winning a nail-biter, which seems more likely to me than a landslide.
Oh, and wasn’t Colorado wanting to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote, even if that person did not receive the most votes in Colorado? If Trump wins the popular vote, he should bring that up.
The lawn sign game definitely puts Minnesota in the toss-up category. There are cities that I have driven through in previous years and seen maybe one or two republican signs which are now solidly 50:50 Trump:Harris. In farms and small towns it’s over 90% Trump but Minnesota has always been like that.
But I am not optimistic about the state flipping since it has such a long history of vote fraud. The Twin Cities are still basically run by a gangster syndicate of DFL and partner organizations. The fraud is at all levels; I can’t recall any other state where jurors have been blatantly offered a large sack of cash. (And if we know about it happening, there must be several instances where it didn’t happen.) But vote fraud is down to a science. Remember, Franken got into congress due to a trunk load of votes which had mysteriously been forgotten about until they were needed to overcome the margin for Coleman in the recount. Just the number of felons who voted illegally in that election was enough to throw the election (it was so blatant that dems in Minnesota will take the position of “but akstchually those felons were probably making fraudulent votes for republicans!”) That’s without taking into account the other means of fraud.
Recently it was discovered that absentee ballots for this election were left unattended in the back of a vehicle with its back door wide open. The instant media response was “this is unacceptable because that might make people believe conspiracy theories that ballots aren’t always properly secured. IT NEVER HAS HAPPENED EVEN ONCE OTHER THAN THIS TIME WHEN WE WERE CAUGHT AND HAD TO ADMIT IT. This election will be more secure than any other!” Not really inspiring confidence in the procedure.
Satisfactory summary.
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Vectors of Societal Destruction – and the Growing Pushback Against Them – Chicago Boyz
“… given any opportunity to the Presidency, Kamala Harris would try to equal the Diocletian persecution of Christians.”
@LQC: Yeah, that’s what I was going for … It seems to me the choice between the pagan who wants to leave Christians be and the pagan who wants to feed us to the lions should motivate a Christian to vote and do so in their own best interest.
I keep pointing out to people who tell me they’re “sitting this one out” that the Biden/Harris administration put people on domestic terror watchlists for buying bibles.
I don’t think Harris is exactly a Diocletian. From what I understand, Diocletian was at least a true believer in paganism. No, I think she’s more like Nero, persecuting Christians not because we offend pagan gods but because we offend — or at least inconvenience — her own “divine” self.
Outis, I think you are correct.