From The Institute For The Study of War:
Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 17, 7:00 pm ET
Mariupol defenders trapped in the Azovstal Steel Plant likely surrendered after Ukrainian officials negotiated evacuation measures with the Kremlin. Russian forces began evacuating wounded Ukrainian forces to Russian-occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16 after the Russian Defense Ministry proposed the agreement earlier in the day. Ukrainian officials said that they will seek to return the Mariupol defenders to Ukraine in a prisoner exchange and continue to undertake appropriate measures to rescue all Ukrainian servicemen from Azovstal.
The Kremlin might have agreed to the conditional surrender of the Azovstal defenders to accelerate Russia’s ability to declare Mariupol fully under its control. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian Defense Ministry’s Department of Information and Mass Communications is hastily preparing a press tour of foreign journalists through occupied territories of Ukraine between May 18 and May 21.[1] The Kremlin also could have agreed to such a deal to secure a victory in order to deflect criticism on social media of the failed Russian Siverskyi Donets River crossings and the overall slow pace of the invasion.
The Kremlin might refuse to exchange the Mariupol defenders. Some Russian State Duma members are petitioning to pass laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges for individuals accused of “Nazism.”[2] Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that the Mariupol defenders must be charged with war crimes and cannot be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.[3] The Kremlin may ignore the Russian State Duma’s concerns or use them to sabotage negotiations with Ukraine.
The surrender agreement generated some outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social media, rather than the celebration of the full capitulation of Mariupol that the Kremlin likely expected—possibly undermining Russian information operations. Some Russian Telegram channels ridiculed the Russian Defense Ministry for negotiating with Ukrainian “terrorists” and “Nazis.”[4] Some bloggers criticized the Donetsk People’s Republic for organizing the evacuation proceedings and blamed negotiating authorities for creating conditions for Ukrainian martyrdom.[5] Several Russian bloggers also called for the imprisonment or murder of surrendered Ukrainian servicemen.[6] Russian audiences are likely dissatisfied with the surrender agreement because they expected Russian forces to destroy Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal. The Kremlin has created large amounts of propaganda that portrayed successful Russian assaults on Azovstal without clearly setting conditions for surrender negotiations. Some Russians may find it difficult to reconcile the triumphant messaging with the abrupt negotiations leading to a negotiated surrender.
Russian forces have intensified artillery fire on Ukrainian border settlements in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts over the past few weeks. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported that Russian forces shelled the border between Sumy Oblast and Russia over 70 times on May 17.[7] Sumy Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that Russian saboteurs unsuccessfully attempted to break through the Ukrainian border on May 17.[8]
Key Takeaways
- The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.
- The announcement of the likely conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian information space and demands in the Russian Duma for laws prohibiting exchanging the surrendered defenders of Azovstal.
- Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian blogger Denys Davidov reported late 5/17 that Russian forces attempted an early morning surprise attack through the nearby forests on Sumy, with reconnaissance specialists and sabotage advance teams, but were detected by Ukrainian forward observers, and the Russian teams were devastated with the new guided artillery units. The attack was broken up and apparently cancelled—for now. Knowing the Russians learn nothing, they will probably double-down on dumb and attack the same way again.
Davidov also says that Ukrainian forces that have secured Kharkhiv are wheeling south now from their previous drive to the Russian border, and he suspects these units will soon launch a counteroffensive on the Russian forces whose supply lines and columns are now exposed by their overextended deployment while attempting to capture Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
Gen. Jack Keane (USA, retired) also spoke on Fox yesterday, surmising that soon the Ukrainians will launch a massive counteroffensive and attempt to roll up the entire depleted and weakened Russian army.
Broadcast on Russia-1 Russian state-sponsored TV today, retired Russian Army Col. Mikhail Khodoranev, now an analyst, corrected the news host who has been parroting the pro-Russia-Putin propaganda line, correcting her that the Ukrainian army is not demoralized and far from defeated, and has in fact been quite successful, and that “the situation of Russia’s world-isolation is not normal.”
This could mean some cracks in the pro-Putin official talk.
Or Col. Khodoranev will soon be “disappeared.”