As usual, TAC will have an open thread for election night. In regard to the presidential contest, most of the polls show a nearly tied race in the popular vote with Trump enjoying a narrow lead in most of the battleground states. My hypothesis is that the polls are once again underestimating Trump’s strength because of an inability of most them to accurately gauge Trump’s support. In 2016 nationally Trump’s strength was understated by two points and some of the state polls were way off in regard to Trump. In 2020 Trump’s strength was underestimated by 2.7 points. Possibly deja vu all over again from 2016 and 2020. We shall all find out soon enough.
Things to watch for tonight: If Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, along with the other states he is certain to take, he will need just one blue state to win. There will be likely a titanic contest in the upper Midwest tonight over Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is called the Keystone State and might well be the key to this election. If Trump flips one of these states, then he can start calling himself Mr. President again. New Hampshire and Maine 2 could be absolutely critical if the contest is close and Trump does not flip one of the states in the Upper Midwest or the Keystone State. In such a scenario, they set him up to win if he takes Nevada or New Mexico. Virginia might be a surprise state for Trump which would eliminate the chance of Harris to win.
In regard to the Senate, the Republicans are almost certain to take it. In the House I believe the Republicans will retain it. The size of their majority in both Houses is heavily dependent upon how Trump does.
It promises to be an exciting election night if not an edifying one! Early voting and voting by mail might delay final results in many states for days, once again, unless it turns into an election night landslide for Trump which is possible. If very close states are crucial to the final result, legal challenges could drag on well into December, if not January. Sound familiar? What a potential mess again.
God save the right and the United States of America.
As always, put your comments in the comboxes. I will be busy this day in the law mines, and thus my comments probably won’t occur until the polls begin to close in the first states.
5:03 PM CST- I am hearing that Georgia and North Carolina look very good for Trump and Wisconsin looks very bad for Harris. Exit polls looking good for Trump, but since I view them as rubbish, that is my first and last mention of them.
6:04 PM CST-Kentucky, South Carolina and Indiana called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. No surprises.
7:00 PM CST-Florida called for Trump. He is winning by almost twelve points. In 2020 he beat Biden by slightly over three points in the Sunshine State. Tennessee and Missouri called for Trump.
7:05 PM CST- Mayland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island called for Harris. No surprise.
7:50 PM CST-Texas called for Trump and Virginia and New Hampshire called for Harris. Illinois called for Harris, and sadly that is no surprise.
8:00 PM CST-Ohio called for Trump. Where we are at: Assuming that Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina, and then wins Arizona, he needs to win one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota to be elected President.
8:25 PM CST: North Carolina called for Trump.
9:30 PM CST: Trump takes the lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Long way to go in both states. Georgia has been called for Trump.
9:32 PM CST: Trump is winning Iowa by eleven points. So much for the Selzer poll showing Harris with a three point lead.
11:20 PM CST: Getting close to calling Pennsylvania for Trump.
12:50 AM CST: Move over Grover Cleveland! Fox calls Pennsylvania for Trump, and with that he has been elected the 47th President of These United States. This is perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history, and accomplished by a man who came to politics late in life. Lawfare and assassination could not stop him, and to add to his remarkable accomplishment he has recreated the Republican Party as a Populist Party, with broad cross racial appeal. Much analysis to come in the days, weeks and months to come. Ladies, it is time:
The team of darkness is already broadcasting that the results of the election will not be known for many days to come. Talk about paranoia.
The team of darkness is already broadcasting that the results of the election will not be known for many days to come. Talk about paranoia.
The commonly used word is projection. Whatever they accuse us of, they’re actually doing it. This has been true for years but never more so than after 2016.
The small rural parish I attend in central Illinois (St Mary in Delavan) announced on Sunday that they would be open for adoration of the Blessed Sacrament all day today, I believe from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m., covering the hours when polls are open in Illinois.The pastor (who is very pro-life) described it as an opportunity to come in and bring all your petitions, anxieties and burdens, whether election related or not, to Jesus and “get away from all the noise”. I will be in Springfield all day but there is a parish with 24 hour adoration nearby so I think I will go there and do the same. Already voted early for Trump so nothing else left to do but pray, I suppose.
LKL.
-your right
Prediction? Republicans will not carry Virginia in the races for senator or president. There’s lots of red here, but we’re not a purple state anymore. With Virginia going blue, I think other battleground states will go blue, too. In fact, this election probably puts an end to the notion that there are any purple states left.
What’s after that? More of the same. If the two major political parties in this country learn anything all from the results of this election, it will probably be the wrong lesson (i.e., “keep doing the same thing only twice as much”).
Also, I know there are a lot of hopes and fears riding on the presidential race but in states that don’t have a gubernatorial race on the ballot this year, I wouldn’t expect much change. If you live in a hard blue state, your governor will probably double down on leftist policies regardless of who wins (if Trump wins they will do so as a form of “resistance”, if Kamala wins they will see it as confirmation they are doing the right thing); if you live in a hard red state, they will probably double down on conservative policies regardless of who wins, for the same reasons as above but in reverse.
I think a Trump victory will unleash another torrent or broad civil unrest, the news churn of cataclysm, “mostly peaceful” rioting, charges of racist border policies, etc. A Harris victory will, if decisive or not frought with 5am ballot shenanigans, will cause the media to declare “democracy saved” and quietly put the screws to those who hold Catholic values. Things like arrests for silent prayer, a la the UK, will become the norm. If there are shenanigans, then there will be the hue and cry from the right, but the result will stand and then what I said for a Harris victory will pay out.
Holy Mass at noon, and I’ll vote here in Virginia immediately after.God bless all here, and may God bless our poor USA!
If Spambot3049 is right then we capitalize on the transformation of zombie to human. Nothing converts a zombie like govt. control. While they are being told what happiness is; forced Public transportation, forced 600 sq. ft. apartment accommodations, bread and cheese and govt. Sponsored religion, they will look to you for help.
You will help.(?)
Possibly. (?)
In home OCIA instruction and
Underground Baptism, Confirmation ect.
Underground Mass.
The Holy Rosary
I think civil unrest will occur in places that have a high Antifa/BLM presence and had cities destroyed b4.
My guess
Meanwhile, the results are in from Dixville Notch, NH, which votes at midnight to be the first in the nation. There were 3 votes for Trump and 3 for Harris among the 6 voters. In 2020 the vote was 5-0 for Biden and in 2016 it was 4-2 for Hillary. In the 2024 GOP primary they all voted for Nikki Haley.
Thanks for the update, Elaine, about Dickville Notch. One thing we can say about that place: it consistently disappoints.
Seriously, though, let’s not start mourning, everyone, before anything has even been decided. For good or ill, it’s not 2016 anymore. No, it’s a whole new mess, but at least, maybe, this time Trump–if he wins–will not appoint vipers to his cabinet or deceive himself that his bitterest enemies can somehow be made to play nice.
I’m going to offer Mass today that God’s will be done and that all those aligned with KH & Co. are utterly defeated. If you don’t ask, you don’t get.
I was out for a walk this morning and an owl attacked my head. I was simply minding my own business, praying Matins and suddenly felt talons scratching at my scalp.
Then I remembered it was Election Day and that this was probably the most positive thing that could happen today.
If the Dixville Notch vote means anything at all it would indicate at least some movement toward Trump in New Hampshire, one of the states that has been discussed as a possibility for him to pick up.
My gut says that the GOP is hungrier for Senate seats in key states, and that could bring out enough reluctant Trump voters. At a minimum, the Democrats have been stretched thin by having so many open seats to defend, and that could lead to a couple of fumbles.
For states that don’t start counting the early votes, it’s a big lift to get final or even close-to-final numbers by midnight. And it’ll be hard to make a final call until PA reports, if it’s anywhere near close. I’ve gotten into the habit of not watching the news Tuesday PM. The first reports on any news story are often wrong, and I think moreso if you’re looking for impressions based on key races (or races that you think will be key). I’ve avoided a lot of whiplash injuries the past 8 years. So tonight, gaming.
Jason,
Oh my goodness! Shades of The Staircase! Thankfully you survived the owl attack and didn’t (improbably) fall down a few stairs and bleed out like that poor woman supposedly did (according to one theory).
Elaine,
Dixville Notch, not Dickville–I see my mistake now; I wasn’t trying to impugn the good people of that hamlet. I think you’re right though about the movement toward the right (or whatever). Even Guam only went for the D’s at +3% this time, instead of +13%. That’s something, I suppose.
I voted. I prayed. I will continue to pray. Deus vult. Christus vincit, Christus regnat, Christus imperat.
Commenters at Instapundit report that the Florida abortion amendment is going down to defeat with “only” 57% of the vote (60% needed to pass)
You beauty! He is smashing her. Praying it stays that way. 🙏
Although it’s no surprise that Illinois went for Kamala, with 72% of the vote in she’s winning by 54.0% to Trump’s 44.6% — a margin of only 9.4%. Given that Biden won IL by 17% in 2020 and Hillary also won by 17% in 2016, that is a very significant shift away from the Dems.
Here’s a live link to results of the abortion referenda:
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/05/abortion-election-2024-results-state-amendments
This site (very liberal Axios) has Florida’s amendment marked as defeated and Colorado, New York and Maryland’s amendments marked as passed (though those were all very blue pro-abortion states already). South Dakota’s measure has a 64-35 “no” vote but only 22% of the vote is in. Missouri, Montana and Nebraska are all running about 54-55% “yes” but if they have a supermajority threshold for passage those would all count as defeats.
I don’t expect Trump to take Minnesota, but it’s worth noting that Kamala lost both the college cities of Moorhead and Mankato. Biden took both areas by around 4-5 points. We’ll see if the arrowhead region stays blue. If not, it means that literally the entire state is against Kamala except Rochester and the Twin Cities, but there’s enough population (and fraud) in those areas to decide the state.
I was just posting that as an observation, and only after I made the comment did I remember that Kamala picked Walz to shore up Wisconsin and maybe get Iowa. But he didn’t even shore up Minnesota.
So far, Trump leads in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and his biggest lead is in Pennsylvania…to be specific, at 12:35AM. Things can change.
McCormick narrowly leads Casey.
The Senate has flipped. Everyone knew the GOP would win WV. OH has elected Bernie Moreno. I think Tester is done in Montana.
Some places are calling Pennsylvania, and absent some major shenanigans, it’s going Trump.
Add 3 from Alaska and that’s 270. Of course Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada are all still very much in play on top of that.
Not quite as fun as 2016 was, but still a good note to go to bed on.
PA just called for Trump by multiple outlets. Waiting for Trump to speak. Meanwhile, Kamala has sent everyone home at her HQ and will not be speaking tonight.
Pennsylvania has been called for Trump by Newsmax. Together with Alaska, that puts Trump at 270.
Trump had to do better than 2020 in Eastern Pennsylvania, especially the suburban Philadelphia counties. He did just that.
Harris will not speak until later today and her gathering was told to go home.
Not to rain on our victory parade but it appears that 8 of the 10 abortion referendums passed. Florida and South Dakota defeated theirs. CO, NY and MD were no surprise but I’m really disappointed to see Missouri and Nebraska, erstwhile strongly pro-life states, pass theirs.
These referenda on abortion are bad news. This is why we should not have laws or amendments subject to an election…a direct democracy is not a good thing.
The pro life movement has to change peoples’ hearts and minds.
I prayed he would win but I prayed for that in 2020 too. Maybe God wanted everyone see how bad te Dems would be.
Fox seems to be calling it for Trump.
Fox did call it for Trump.
The Democrat Party will have to excise the legacies of Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama. They and their views have been put to pasture by the voters. As Mr. McClarey put it there are no permanent political victories….but parties can shoot themselves in the foot and ensure their own defeat.
As for the Lincoln Project…Rick Wilson and company have failed and are finished.
Trump has transformed the GOP. It is now clearly the party of the blue collar worker, the entrepreneur, the “little guy” and the country club set such as the Bushes and Cheneys are out.
Go for it, Trumpy. Well done.
Can’t wait to see Dem’s heads explode. 😆
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The Wall must be built.
The pro life “convicts” must be pardoned.
The Green New Deal must be repealed.
The Keystone Pipeline must be built.
The Justice Department needs gutted and so does the Pentagon.
If J.D. Vance was not VP, I would have appointed him to be the ambassador to the Vatican. You think Pope Frank has a sourpuss look now? Wait ’till he meets J.D.
Obumblercare and Motor Voter need scrapped.
I think that Justices Thomas and Alito are going to inform Trump to look for replacements.
Yesterday’s first reading;
Reading 1 PHIL 2:5-11
Brothers and sisters:
Have among yourselves the same attitude
that is also yours in Christ Jesus,
Who, though he was in the form of God,
did not regard equality with God
something to be grasped.
Rather, he emptied himself,
taking the form of a slave,
coming in human likeness;
and, found human in appearance,
he humbled himself,
becoming obedient to death,
even death on a cross.
Because of this, God greatly exalted him
and bestowed on him the name
that is above every name,
that at the name of Jesus
every knee should bend,
of those in heaven and on earth and under the earth,
and every tongue confess that
Jesus Christ is Lord,
to the glory of God the Father.
I can’t help but think of Harris telling the young men at her rally that they were at the wrong rally.
They shouted; Jesus Christ is Lord.
Her response wasn’t a bending of her knee.
Something for her to ponder as she fades away.
St. Mother Theresa of Calcutta…pray for the United States of America, One Nation, under God….
Her words still ring true…
The 1st female president was aborted.
Long live the Republic.
The States have a very long way to go to end abortion, but with God it’s possible.
“Too big to rig” actually worked.
Color me stunned. I did not see this coming.
Now, let’s make better use of this four-year reprieve than we did of the last one.