Same no leaners map for Real Clear Politics in 2020:
The electoral count prediction for 2020 overstated the Biden total by 13 and understated the Trump total by 13. Not too shabby. In 2016 the no leaners map was way off:
The electoral vote was off by 40 with Trump winning 306 electoral votes, and Clinton getting 232. (Two faithless electors would defect from Trump and five from Clinton.)
RCP actually thought Florida was going to go blue in 2020? What were they smoking at the time?
No clue. The wild card is fraud. We’ve reached a point in our history where Latin American countries are going to have to send observers here, because their elections are comparatively clean and efficiently run. As for the polls, they’re all massaged convenience samples.
Looks *almost* Walter Mondale-ish!
RCP actually thought Florida was going to go blue in 2020? What were they smoking at the time?
They base it purely on polls. Of course in 2012 both Ohio and Florida went blue, courtesy of the hapless Romney campaign.
Don wrote: “Two faithless electors would defect from Trump and five from Clinton.”
How many electors in the Electoral College are or will be infected with Trump derangement syndrome? In this day and age, people no longer behave in accordance with principle, but rather in accordance with what they feel is right. I can imagine enough electors casting votes opposite their state’s popular vote because in their minds, to elect Trump is a catastrophe that necessitates the “higher” principle of “saving democracy” from that “Nazi.”
Electors are not chosen at random. They are usually chosen to be completely reliable, and also people the state party wants to honor. Just don’t choose anyone too closely related to the Bush administration and you should be fine.