From The Institute For The Study of War:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan
July 11, 7:10 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to grant Russian forces access to Belarusian airspace to demonstrate at least nominal support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking direct military involvement of Belarusian Armed Forces in operations in Ukraine. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Gromov previously reported on July 7 that the Belarusian government transferred use of the Pribytki airfield in Gomel Oblast to Russia.[1] Independent Belarusian monitoring organization The Hajun Project similarly reported on July 11 that a Russian Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft flew into Belarusian airspace for the first time since April 4.[2] The Hajun Project noted that the Belarusian government introduced new airspace restrictions along the border with Ukraine where the AWACS aircraft patrolled between July 10 and 11.[3] Taken together, these data points likely indicate that Lukashenko is attempting to provide support to Putin’s war in Ukraine short of direct Belarusian military intervention in an effort to respond to the pressure Putin is likely putting on him. As ISW has previously assessed, the likelihood of direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low due to the effect that might have on the stability and even survival of Lukashenko’s regime.[4]
Key Takeaways
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to allow Russia access to Belarusian airspace to indicate support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking the consequences of direct Belarusian military involvement in Ukraine.
- Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk and west of Donetsk City.
- Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and Bakhmut.
- Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis.
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The video mentions that the Ukrainians are talking about building a million man military. Is that feasible? With a population of 41 million it should be During World War II the US, out of a population of 125 million, raised a military force of 16 million. The impact on the domestic economy will be rough, but in a war for national survival, you do what you have to do.
Side note: When all of this is over, and it will be one way or another, one of the casualties will be Belarus. It will be shunned by most of the civilized world and it will find its ties to Russia more closely resemble a noose.
A Military History Visualized video on YouTube had a long, wide ranging interview about WWII titled “D.M. Giangreco on the Invasion of Japan, Lend Lease & much more.” The interview covered manpower issues during the war. There were limitations that governed how manpower was deployed by America. The word grim was used. The interview has a list of timestamps so you can jump around to various topics. The interview pointed out the importance of logistics, but observed that it is not a very popular topic. That YouTube channel also has some videos about tanks and the Ukraine war that include maintenance and logistics issues.
Putin’s blustering about “Russia has barely begun its campaign,” a few days ago, was rather obvious Russian misdirection: the presently evident long pause after Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, not withstanding their limited tactical success there, confirm observations by Western military experts and Ukrainian reports that their BTG’s were badly mauled and are far under strength.
Additionally Russia has lost its 59th and 60th high level field officers, deputy field commander Lt. Col. Alexander Smirnov of the 11th Airborne Assault Guards, and Lt.Col. Sergei Moskvichev, a paratroop commander of the 83rd Airborne Brigade killed in Luhansk oblast. Like the other documented high level officers’ deaths, the Kremlin has a hard time denying these losses because their public funerals were posted on social media back in Russia.
More than a few blogs and observers suggest the Ukrainian command is massing forces now to push forward from Mykolaiv and retake Kherson in the south and secure Black Sea coastal access in the south.
Two points evident here: Russia continues to lose highly valuable experienced field commanders; And at least in the case of Smirnov, Ukrainian artillery is showing greater precision and exacting a heavy toll, because he was hit at a command post well behind the lines in Luhansk July 1st.
Other persistent speculation swirls around the Ukrainians kicking off their summer counterattack with a massive missile- and air-strike at the key Kerch Strait Rail-and-Vehicle Bridge, connecting Russia with the Crimean Peninsula. Any serious Ukrainian attack on the south must cut off Russian supply lines over this bridge: if successful, expect the Russians to howl like a scalded cat.
The basic problem in gearing up for Operation Downfall was a too generous policy of letting European Theater vets out of the military following the surrender of Germany. The US military had a long tail to tooth ratio and a lot of combat units were being decimated by early outs with extra points being given by combat troops. This news was of course ill received by our troops in the Pacific who expected to be fighting their war until well into 1946.