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Ukraine War Analysis-May 24, 2022

 

From The Institute For The Study of War:

 

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Mason Clark

May 24, 7:00 pm ET

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements—enabling them to make incremental measured gains. Russian forces are likely attempting to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts: the broader Severodonetsk area (including Rubizhne and Lysychansk), Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote (just northeast of Popasna), and around Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka. Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces only controlled approximately 10 percent of Luhansk Oblast as of May 15 (compared to 30 percent prior to the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022).[1] Russian forces have secured more terrain in the past week than efforts earlier in May. However, they have done so by reducing the scope of their objectives—largely abandoning operations around Izyum and concentrating on key frontline towns: Russian performance remains poor.

Russian forces will additionally likely face protracted urban combat if they successfully encircle Severodonetsk (as well as in other large towns like Bakhmut), which Russian forces have struggled with throughout the war. Russian forces are committing a significant number of their troops, artillery, and aircraft to defeat Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Oblast and are likely pulling necessary resources from the Izyum axis, defensive positions around Kharkiv City, Donetsk City, and the Zaporizhia area. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai has previously compared Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast to the previous defenders of Mariupol, which aimed to wear out Russian forces and prevent further offensive operations.[2] The UK Defense Ministry also noted that a Russian victory over Severodonetsk will only worsen Russian logistical issues and extend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs).[3] Russian forces are making greater advances in the past week than throughout the rest of May—but these advances remain slow, confined to smaller objectives than the Kremlin intended, and face continued Ukrainian defenses; they do not constitute a major breakthrough.

Senior Kremlin officials are increasingly openly admitting that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated and are grasping for explanations to justify the slow pace. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian operations in Ukraine are progressing slowly because Russian forces want to afford civilians the opportunity to evacuate, though Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian civilians throughout the war and repeatedly denied Ukrainian attempts to negotiate humanitarian evacuation corridors.[4] Shoigu’s statement is notably his first admission that Russian forces are behind schedule and is the first official statement on the pace of the war since Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the operation was “dragging” on May 4.[5] Russian milbloggers are criticizing Shoigu’s claimed consideration for civilians and claimed that Soviet troops would not have cared if “Nazi” civilians evacuated, part of the growing Russian nationalist reaction that the Kremlin is not doing enough to win the war in Ukraine.[6] Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin stated that the ultimate goal of the Russian offensive is to ensure “Nazism” is “100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even uglier form.”[7] Naryshkin and Shoigu’s statements indicate that Russian officials are likely setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine in order to justify slower and more measured advances than initially anticipated.

Forcefully mobilized servicemen from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics continued to protest the Russian and proxy military command. Servicemen of the 3rd Infantry Battalion of the 105th Infantry Regiment from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recorded a video appeal to DNR Head Denis Pushilin wherein they claimed they were mobilized on February 23 and that they have been forced to actively participate in hostilities despite their lack of military experience. The battalion stated that they served on the frontlines in Mariupol and have been redeployed to the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) with only 60% of their original personnel and are now dealing with severe morale issues and physical exhaustion. The battalion notably claimed that the servicemen did not go through routine medical inspection prior to service and that many are suffering from chronic illnesses that should have rendered them ineligible for service. The video appeal is consistent with numerous reports from Ukrainian and Western sources that proxy forces are largely forcibly mobilized, poorly trained, and suffering from declining morale, but is notable due to the willingness of the DNR servicemen to publicly express their discontent.[8]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle large Ukrainian formations in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements and focus on Severodonetsk.
  • This change in the Russian approach is enabling gradual advances—but at the cost of abandoning several intended lines of advance and abandoning the Kremlin’s intended deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a controlled withdrawal southwest of Popasna near Bakhmut to protect Ukrainian supply lines against Russian offensives in the southeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol in a likely effort to strengthen judicial control of the city and support false Kremlin narratives of Ukrainian crimes.
  • Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
  • Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis.
  • Several DNR servicemen openly released a video appeal to DNR leader Denis Pushilin stating they have been forced into combat operations without proper support, indicating increasing demoralization among Russian and proxy forces.

Go here to read the rest.  The Russians are attempting to restart their offensive but they only have the strength to do so in limited areas.  The best season for mobile operations on the steppe is summer, so things should start getting interesting in June.

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Donald Link
Wednesday, May 25, AD 2022 7:09am

Not widely reported, except in business news forums, is the adverse effect of the war on the Russian people. Shortages, especially in items with imported components, are becoming noticeable. Western companies supplying consumer products and services are leaving the country. Despite the best efforts of Russian media to cover up these disruptions, it is becoming very apparent to the citizenry that all is not going well.

Steve Phoenix
Steve Phoenix
Wednesday, May 25, AD 2022 7:19am

I think the commentator in the short video clip is retired RAF Vice -Marshal Sean Bell, And he issues a sobering analysis of the difficult fighting around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. There is no doubt that the Russians are trying to close a pincer movement, especially around the f
Severodonetsk. However, Ukrainian forces continue to exact a heavy toll, according to blogger Denys Davidov, again breaking up a Russian bridge crossing west of Severodonetsk two days ago, Russian forces again never learning from their disastrous failure about a week ago,but trying to cross the river again…with no attention to attrition. Obviously commanded from oblivious higher-ups out of the combat zone.

It appears Ukrainians want to fight a slow costly recruiting option in these two cities and waste as much Russian fighting forces as they can, until they receive sufficient western updated artillery. Davidov and other sources say the M777 155mm Excalibur-supplied munitions will outrange the Russian artillery (M777 with Excalibur 25 mi/40 km, Russian 155mm— despite their official claims, 18 mi/25km) and the range advantage to the Ukrainians for the first time—-when it finally gets to the theater of battle. (It would’ve been nice if that artillery, at least a section of it, had been immediately dispatched early on in the conflict, but you can’t expect swift action from the indecisive Harvard badminton-and-debating team running the White House.)

Another nugget in the ISW summary above is the admission that a Donbass forced-levy volunteer group that actually fought in Mariupol, now being redeployed near the Severodonetsk offensive, was actually reduced to 60% force-size— And many of those men are either injured or not combat-fit. This is what Gen. Jack Keane (USA ret.) has been saying, that the US considers combat ineffective any battle group reduced by 20 to 30%: apparently the Russians like to make sure there is no tread left on their tires, and they still re-deploy a group that is frankly exhausted and openly opposing their combat action. We are sure that will end well. This also confirms what we thought, that Russian forces and Mariupol were severely chewed up.

For those who think the grinding “slow-and-steady” Russian method will win out, Ukrainian bloggers claim now that they have more than 1 million men in uniform and being trained up for full battle duty. Besides being highly motivated, compared to the Russians, the Ukrainians have shown, like the German military in World War II, they are now more experienced and “five times as dangerous” (what was said of the German Wehrmacht in retreat) in dug-in and retreat positions as in offensive actions. Now that it looks likely that the Russians have lost over 20,000 troops killed and probably double that wounded/out of action, the 190,000 original count of Russian military in the Ukraine Feb. 24th is likely bled down and though we know replaced by conscription, likely replaced by secondary military in most cases (excepting some serious first-line fighting forces from the Russian Far East armies comprised largely of Siberian, and surviving Russian Marines of those who took Mariupol). It looks like it will be a slow costly delaying action by the Ukrainians until they are ready to launch their counterattacks.

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