From The Institute For The Study of War:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
April 20, 6pm ET
Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
Key Takeaways
- Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine secured minor gains in the last 24 hours, taking parts of the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna.
- Ukrainian forces reported the presence of small numbers of Syrian or Libyan mercenaries fighting in Popasna (eastern Ukraine), likely individual recruits fighting under the umbrella of the Wagner Group rather than larger units.
- Russian forces made incremental advances in Mariupol and continued to set conditions to declare victory in the city by –at the latest – May 9.
- Russian forces made minor advances around Izyum but have not secured any major breakthroughs.
Russian forces may be preparing to conscript Ukrainian citizens amid continuing recruitment challenges. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 20 that Russian occupation forces are planning to hold pseudo-referendums in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts to declare a forced mobilization and “throw ‘mobilized’ Ukrainians to the hottest parts of the front.”[1] If confirmed, this effort is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will provoke an uptick in protests and partisan actions against Russian forces in these regions. The GUR additionally reported that Russia’s FSB is conducting a purge of the political leadership of the LNR in retaliation for its failure to achieve military objectives since February 24.[2]
Go here to read the rest. The news item that the Russians are planning to conscript Ukrainians to aid in the conquest of their country, if true, tells us two things: 1. The Russians have no answer for their troop shortage in the War; and, 2. The decision makers at the top of Russia are becoming increasingly irrational about this War.
The UK Times reported today that part of the now rather obvious attempted encirclement by Russian forces of Ukrainian military roughly southwards from Izium towards the general Slovyansk area was halted, in part by detonating a bridge over the Severniy Donetsk river: but once again rashness no such slowness in a single column, that they’re essentially trapped now, again, on a narrow roadway “awaiting orders.” (Undoubtedly, no orders will permit their retreat.. once again leaving them sitting ducks to the ever-ingenious Ukrainian attack schemes.)
“Warthog Defense” Is another YouTube military analyst, perhaps amateur, but who has a great deal of information on the massive losses the Russians have sustained, which seem to predict failure in any further attempts. Warthog says Russians have lost at least 618 open source documented tanks, and over 900 armored personnel carriers (the death trap “BMT’s”). Of the variously described over 100 to 125 battle tactical groups (“BTG’s”) with which Russia started the war, only 76 are now operating at full strength in the present attack on the Donbass. The Russian military acknowledges now nearly 30,000 killed or so seriously wounded as to be permanently out of action—-and most of those were the 200 or so actual combat fighting troops in each tactical group. The reconstructed 76 BTG’s therefore have soldiers repurposed from other assignments. Hard to imagine they’re going to be better fighters.
Putin announcing today to “seal off” the Azovstal steel plant and the Ukrainian fighters and remaining civilians in the bowels of that plant, and telling his commanders not to risk any more soldiers trying to liquidate that group, supports the inference that the casualty toll inflicted by that Ukrainian military group on the Russians has been unbelievably catastrophic. We will only find out in a couple years.
Lastly, proving once again that whatever the official Russian military news service says is complete bunk, now obvious pictures have surfaced showing the cruiser Moskva shortly before its sinking, and that it was clearly hit by Ukrainian subsonic cruise missiles. “Grim Reapers” is a YouTube site that wargames various military strategic attacks with immensely detailed ordnance information on warships of the world. In “How Well-Defended was the Moskva Cruiser,” The author programs different defensive actions of the Moskva, and some interesting anomalies show up. Regardless of their computer gaming, they point out that the cruiser’s defense against a cruise missile depended on really only two actual available countermeasures: 1) The “Osa” (“Wasp”, NATO code name “Gecko”) missile, a roughly 9m -long air-to-air missile in two hatches on either side of the cruiser. In theory, the Osa weaponry should have engaged the cruise missiles between 5 miles-20 miles away from the ship: and it’s possible the Ukrainians actually fired off four or even six Neptune missiles (“Neptunes” are usually carried in a pod of four on a USPU-360 mobile truck launcher). 2) Backing up the Osa system are “AK 630” 30mm Gatling guns, 6 to the ship, 4 able to engage to a side, which have a rate of fire = 4000 rounds/min and a range of 5000 meters: But even the subsonic Neptune missiles have a speed of 930 km/hr: which would mean, even though these Gatling guns are radar- and AI-guided, they only have roughly 20 seconds at 250 m/s to hit and down the incoming cruise missiles. A tall order. Especially if there were 4 or more fired.
Lastly US Navy radar operator say it is very common during conditions of high waves and wind, which occurred that night (when was supposed to be 30 kn, swells were supposed to be 20 feet) that radar returns are degraded and accuracy is significantly reduced even for high tech systems like for these two. This assumes that the Russian crew was alert, and was able to get swift authorization to fire from the captain, which appears to be a continuing problem on Russian ships. Eventually we will find out what the story was. In a few more years.
One of the sun. Remember about a week ago the Russian military news service released video of the 1000 or so Ukrainian fighter supposedly surrendering in Mariupol? Their uniforms weren’t dirty or torn, none of them had huge beards, none of them looked gaunt and exhausted from 55 days of fighting?
Pretty much clear now that that was all another Russian news fake story.