From The Institute For the Study of War:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
April 6, 5pm ET
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances. Russian forces completed their withdrawal from Sumy Oblast, and Russian forces previously withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine continued to redeploy to Belgorod, Russia, for further deployment to Izyum or Donbas. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia plans to deploy elements from the Kyiv axis to Izyum, but these units will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time.
Russian forces may be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults. Ukrainian officials and pro-Russian Telegram channels both reported additional Russian equipment arriving in Donbas from an unspecified location in preparation for a renewed offensive. Russian forces continued assaults in Mariupol, and we cannot confirm concrete control of terrain changes in the city. Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis but did not make any major territorial gains.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces with heavy air and artillery support continued assaults on Ukrainian positions in Mariupol in the past 24 hours.
- Russian and proxy forces in eastern Ukraine are likely attempting to consolidate forces and material for an offensive in the coming days.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations from Izyum towards Slovyansk but did not make any major territorial gains.
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks towards Kherson from both the north and west.
- Russian forces completely vacated Sumy Oblast.
- Russian General Officers are reportedly instructing commanders to severely restrict internet access among Russian personnel in an attempt to combat low morale.
- The US and NATO should take a strong stance on any Russian threat to use its military forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to combat growing morale problems among Russian troops. Ukraine’s GUR reported that Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to low morale.[1] The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates.
Go here to read the rest. Hard to fight a war with troops with poor morale, especially against an enemy fighting for their homes. In such a war the home team never has to wonder why they are fighting:
Of the Ukraine’s 60 largest cities, they nicked 12 back in 2014. So far in this campaign, they’ve managed to occupy Kherson and are waging war in Mariupol. If that map is accurate, they’re undertaking sieges in just five of the Ukraine’s 24 oblasts. Cannot help but recall that Russia’s productive capacity exceeds the Ukraine’s by a factor of 7.5.
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances. Russian forces completed their withdrawal from Sumy Oblast, and Russian forces previously withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine continued to redeploy to Belgorod, Russia, for further deployment to Izyum or Donbas. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia plans to deploy elements from the Kyiv axis to Izyum, but these units will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time.
Russian forces may be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults.
Hasty refitting of mauled units almost guarantees failure unless they have crushing numerical superiority. Which he won’t have with what is on hand.
From what I have been reading, the May 9 WWII victory anniversary is Putin’s internal deadline for “success.” In the absence of a conventional breakthrough, I fear he will up the ante in a horrific fashion.
I have no idea why it quoted that section above what I quote marked. Apologies.
I think Tito Edwards likes to put little gremlins in the code just to mess with everyone’s head.
Corrected Dale’s comment. Sometimes with comments WordPress has an evil mind of its own.
Many thanks!