From The Institute For The Study of War:
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
April 2, 5:00 pm ET
Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely require some time to redeploy and integrate reinforcements from other axes. Ukrainian forces repelled likely large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas on April 2 and inflicted heavy casualties. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol and will likely capture the city in the coming days. Russian units around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine continued to successfully withdraw into Belarus and Russia, and heavy mining in previously Russian-occupied areas is forcing Ukrainian forces to conduct slow clearing operations.
However, the Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine for redeployment to eastern Ukraine are heavily damaged. Russian forces likely require an extensive operational pause to refit existing units in Donbas, refit and redeploy reinforcements from other axes, and integrate these forces—pulled from several military districts that have not yet operated on a single axis—into a cohesive fighting force. We have observed no indicators of Russian plans to carry out such a pause, and Russian forces will likely fail to break through Ukrainian defenses if they continue to steadily funnel already damaged units into fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
- Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
- Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
- Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
- Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
- Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 2 that out of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) it assesses have participated in operations in Ukraine, 16 BTGs have been “completely destroyed” and 34 more are currently combat ineffective and recovering.[1] ISW cannot independently confirm these numbers, but Russian forces will be unlikely to be able to resume major operations if two-thirds of the BTGs committed to fighting to date have been rendered temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated on April 2 that Belarusian forces are increasing the pace of ongoing training, but that Ukraine does not observe any indicators of preparations for a Belarusian offensive.[2] Belarusian social media users observed Belarusian air defenses redeploying towards Luninets and Slutsk (in central Belarus) on April 2, but no Belarusian forces were observed moving near the Ukrainian border.[3] ISW assesses Belarusian President Lukashenko will continue to resist Russian efforts to involve Belarus in the war in Ukraine.
Go here to read the rest. The Ukrainians have been retaking towns occupied by the Russians. They are reporting evidence that the Russians have been summarily executing Ukrainian civilians. I can easily believe this is true. At the best of times the Russians historically have not been mild in their treatment of enemy civilian populations; at their worst the Russians engage in mass murder and mass rape. This war is about to turn a lot uglier as the Ukrainians seek revenge.
An open-source news site on YouTube revealed yesterday just how the Ukrainian armed forces degraded that 40-mile convoy stuck in a traffic jam on the highway to Kiev: Ukrainian special forces, in a small battle group of about 60, attacked at night on four-wheel ATVs, coming at the convoy through the forests and fields on either side of the line of vehicles and armor. Using light automatic weapons and anti-tank weapons (though apparently not Javelins in this action), they deliberately took out three or four tanks and armored vehicles at the head of the column, knowing this would completely block the rest of the column.
Then they retreated into the dark and moved down the column and attacked again at another point, creating another traffic jam of burning vehicles. They repeated this on successive nights, stopping the column.
Apparently the Russians also did not have tank-wrecker removal vehicles anywhere near the front of the column (What were they thinking?), and so if there was a tank or fighting vehicle/BMT that caught fire or had its turret blown off— A fairly common site seeing a recent photographic evidence —-it couldn’t be pushed out of the way by other tanks. It was a perfect shooting gallery.
Also, on social media back in Russia, apparently the first funerals were beingheld for service personnel whose bodies had been recovered and brought back (A lot of bodies clearly have been simply left in the field or in burned-out hulks, according to Ukrainian photos). Although muted, there clearly are a lot of questions about the initial wave of dead: The questioning is going to get louder because of what certainly is going to be a very large number of MIA.
Finally, there is the story of the elite Russian 331st Parachutist Regiment (Forbes). This was a BTG that was to have been a spearhead in the taking of Kiev. In the roughly 200-300 man BTG (the full regiment is about 2000 including support and ancillary personnel) at least 50 were killed; going by Gen. Jack Keane’s reckoning of 2 wounded and out-of-action for every 1 killed, the casualty total is well over the 30% loss “combat ineffective” standard. It’s highly regarded leader, Col. Sergei Sukharev, was also reported by Russian sources as also killed. The 331st was involved in a mass execution of Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered in 2014 at Iloivaisk, approximately 400 men. This time Ukrainians were particularly determined to exact revenge on this brigade.