State of the Race
- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
Could someone give us a quick bottom line on the electoral college prospective range for Trump based on the above analysis?
I don’t think Baris has given a national prediction. Barnes believes that Trump takes all his 2016 electoral votes plus Minnesota and New Hampshire with a decent shot at Nevada. I would keep an eye on New Mexico. Hillary got 48, Trump 41 and the Libertarian 9. With Trump having stronger strength among Hispanics this time, with Biden’s comments against he old industry and withe the Libertarian probably coming in two – three, I think Trump has an outside chance of taking the state.
Short summary of Key Points:
Biden is leading within margin of error in the rust belt states
Just been ruled that ballots received in MN after election day must be counted separately and can be disqualified.
This basically seals the deal for President Trump’s MN victory.
If Trump flips Minnesota, then he’s won.
(Mostly because I can’t see how he flips Minnesota and still loses.)
Rudolph, On Twitter, MN Dems are now telling people to NOT mail their ballots but to drop them off or vote in person.
Good, good. This means that they were planning to hide their mail in fraud with “legitimate” late votes, and now that those late votes probably won’t be counted they need their voters to actually vote on time.
But the overlap between rabid leftist and people terrified of COVID-19 is nearly 100% in MN. These are people who wear their masks in their cars, only get curbside pickup for groceries, and generally feel anxious just leaving their houses. You can’t turn that around in just four days, especially since the media doesn’t have time to get a jump on this before the weekend.
Like I said, this seals the deal for MN.
As I’ve mentioned on another thread, Biden has the same chance of taking Texas or Georgia as Trump has of taking Virginia — slim to none. I believe Trump will take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona. If so, then he only needs one of the remaining Big Ten battleground states — PA, MI, WI or MN; or both NV and NH. Each of these states is very close, and he could fall just short in all of them, but (like Barnes) I would not bet on that. The key to PA and NV is to win by enough to overcome the Dem cheating. Unlike most close states WI will likely be called Tuesday evening. Not the end of the world for Trump if he falls short, but a win probably puts him over the top — even if it won’t be called for a few days.
Evidently there’s some concern about Georgia (see here).
It’s worth noting that Paul Mirengoff is part of the doom and gloom wing of the Republican Party under Trump.
Ernst,
If Trump loses Georgia, he will lose reelection. Period.
While the latter might well happen, the former will not. The best pollsters do not consider Georgia to really be in play. The media company and college pollsters are amateurs.
That’s more or less what I think, but Paul Mirengoff, “knows somebody who knows sum-tin’,” so to speak, so I thought it was worth throwing out there. And like I said, MIrengoff is a doom ‘n gloomer.
I think the real tell about the state of the race is that Biden is in Minnesota and Trump is not in Georgia.
P.S Ernst,
You are right about MN. It is very close and Trump could win. If he does, then he probably has been reelected. A number of weird things would have to happen for Trump to win MN but not reach 270.
More good news from Minnesota: Patriotic Minnesotans ignored Keith Ellison’s unconstitutional efforts to keep the Trump rally to 250 or fewer people, and there were more “ugly dope”Trump supporters at the Joe Biden rally at the state fairgrounds than there were Biden supporters.
I don’t know if it will be enough to overcome the margin of fraud, but between the court ruling today, and the fact that Trump isn’t going to just roll over and take it, like Norm Coleman did when the Democrats stole the election for Al Gore, I feel pretty good about Minnesota.
Not good enough to move home though.
Interesting summary here from UncoverDC.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/10/30/eye-on-politics-trends-before-election-day/