Never trade an imaginary catastrophe for a real one.
True
- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
This is not a recession. It is a depression.
Economic Suicide Was Not The Solution.
This virus is man-made. Intentionaly spread .The reason for it,is to bring down the economy all over the world ,specialy America and then establish One World Gov. witch is the Anti-Christ
Ihave never posted any message on that subject,Why you claim that I have already say that?
The stock market gave away all its gains of the last three years, then it bounced back. Why wouldn’t we see employment bounce back? Not completely, sure. Some businesses have failed and won’t be able to rehire. Some products aren’t going to sell, mostly ones that involve large groups of people. And we’re going to be suffering from the disruption of supply lines, particularly from overseas. But still, the factories and the stores are going to reopen, and we’re going to need cleaning crews and waiters and everything else. Other than a second wave of the virus, can someone tell me why we won’t see 8-digits new hires in the next two months?
Probably the program thought that you were posting your comment twice.
Pinky,
I’m praying that you are right.
But, I’m preparing for the worst. This AM FOX business had on a restaurant man who said 80% of restaurants may not reopen.
On April 1, one-third of homeowners didn’t pay the mortgage loan principal and interest or escrow for taxes and insurance; one-third of renters didn’t pay the rent (Will landlords be able to pay their loan payments and taxes?); NYC transit receipts are down 95%, but expenses are same; state and local income tax receipts will be crushed and the expenses will be same (N.B. states, counties, municipalities can’t print money); etc. If it doesn’t very soon turn around, many banks will incur loan losses some sufficient to cause a credit crisis, if not, force insolvency. I could go on and on.
An ounce of preparation [prevention is a long ways away.] is worth a pound of cure. “They” had better be prepared for a second wave in the late Fall.
I’ve seen people respond to this by saying that since 22 million were forecast to die, 22 million job losses is more than acceptable since they would have been lost anyway through death.
This line of reasoning requires that we continue to use the earliest models which have since been discredited. But that is what many people are going to do.
Right now this line of reasoning seems popular, but I don’t think that it’s swaying anyone who has actually lost a job. It’s easy for people to convince themselves that what we are doing is necessary to prevent an unseen but disastrous future if they are just staying home and watching movies. But if suddenly they lose all their income and the vast majority of local businesses close, I think that their tune will change.
Pinky,
Just as I wouldn’t necessarily believe a medical expert saying millions may die of covid-19, I wouldn’t necessarily believe a business expert that says 80% of restaurants may not reopen.
Beware hysteria on both sides of the discussion.
It is scary. I’m hoping that a lot of the mortgage non-payments were simply because they could.
Restarting an engine (more like a million smaller engines) takes fuel, and for the economy, that means money. I’m seeing crazy backups at the drive-thrus, and Amazon delivery vehicles all over. The “coronabucks” are hitting right now. State and local government can’t print money, but they “know a guy” who can. But yeah, money flow will be important.
On that note: if anyone can afford to do so, remember that charities need our attention. Food pantries, parishes that can’t pass the basket. I’d guess crisis pregnancy centers, because expectant mothers may be nervous about their financial futures.
Pinky:
My brother the chef told us 80% of restaurants don’t make it long term anyway. You can’t blame the virus for that long-standing pattern.
“if anyone can afford to do so, remember that charities need our attention.”
Although I’m concerned about my job situation if this continues (like almost everyone), I am prayerfully increasing my usual charitable donations nonetheless.
Restaurants do fail all the time, and if the economy is good and people have investment capital, new ones open. In a bad economy, people either don’t have the money or they don’t take risks. If people are expecting a second wave shutdown, or if the banks are hurting, we won’t see startups.
I keep wondering when the governors are going to lead by example and stop taking a paycheck. Maryland implemented a $5,000 penalty for not heeding the governor’s directives. Hard to pay any penalty when you’re not working. but i guess it’s a good number when you’re not collecting it via sales tax & such.
There is a Italian restaurant with a drive through near me that is totally thriving right now, they can’t make the food fast enough. A formerly packed brewery restaurant that is probably toast unless you can drive through for a pint(?)
Will people stay in cities? Higher taxes, crime, now illness, don’t forget Islamic terror.. Why stay in the city- when you’ve learned to work remote?
Why pay ten’s of thousands for college when you can take a class remote?
In the end businesses will change and people will too.
(And it’s stupid to throw government money at it, thinking “that” will fix the problem.)
A co-worker’s husband was furloughed over the weekend he was one of the chefs at the Hyatt in downtown Cincinnat. He had to lay off all of his part time staff four weeks ago. Now all of the full timers are gone too.
I like Eliane Tremblay’s comment even though unproven and, some might say, extreme.
“This virus is man-made. Intentionaly spread .The reason for it,is to bring down the economy all over the world ,specialy America and then establish One World Gov. witch is the Anti-Christ.”
The alacrity with which haruspices of all stripes are cranking out their (often contradictory) prognostications leads me to suggest the next hot investment will be entrails. Even without the Chinese-owned processing plants closing, there’s gonna be a shortage any day now.