33

Roy Moore Loses

I do not think I will ever trust polls again.  Defying almost all the polls, Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore yesterday to win the special election to fill the Alabama Senate seat.  Jones, a liberal pro-abort, will hold the seat until 2020 when he will be up for re-election.  Jones won by a 14,000 vote margin, far too large I think to be overturned in a recount, unless fraud on a massive scale occurred.  I did find it very interesting, and suspicious, last night that the votes from the two Democrat strongholds of Montgomery and Birmingham were quite late in being reported.  It reminded me of many an election night in Illinois in close state wide races, when, for some mysterious reason, the Chicago vote was very slow being reported.  Having said that, I do not expect that the election results will change.

The much ballyhooed write in effort yielded slightly over one percent of the vote total and was not a significant factor, unless one assumes that these voters would have voted for Moore, rather than stayed home or voted for Jones, which I do not.  The outcome hinged on the simple fact that a lot of Republicans stayed home and a few voted for Jones.  To add perspective to this, in November 2016 Trump clobbered Clinton with a 28 point margin and a total vote margin of 1.3 million to around 729k for Clinton.  Jones got fewer votes than Clinton did and Moore got about half of the votes that Trump did.  A huge number of Republicans were MIA.

Doubtless there will be attempts to hang this defeat around the neck of Trump, which is absurd.  This was all about Moore.  Absent the scandals he would have prevailed, probably with about the same 4 point margin of victory that he enjoyed in his last state wide race in 2012.

Almost all of the polls completely missed what was coming, and in close races the polls seem to be currently about as predictive as tossing a coin, or looking at chicken entrails.

12

Moore v. Jones: A Pre-Mortem

Well, the Roy Moore v. Doug Jones race will be mercifully over tomorrow, and all current polls show Moore ahead.  Nothing is ever certain in politics, but it looks like Moore is headed to victory.  A few observations:

 

  1.  Alabama is a very red state.  In the divided state of our politics today, it is almost as hard for a Democrat to win a state-wide race in Alabama as it is for a Republican to win a state-wide race in California.
  2. If the scandal card is played, do it close to the election.  Moore had enough time to recover from the scandal allegations, and he did.
  3. The national news media is really, really hated by conservatives.  Moore has received somewhat worse coverage from the media than a reincarnated Hitler would, and that fact probably redounds to his advantage in Alabama.
  4. Gloria Allred.  If you are trying to win an election in a red state, having Gloria Allred do one of her dog and pony press conferences is death on ice for the candidate she supports.
  5. Beware of evidence too good to be true.  The whole scandal began to unravel with the yearbook.  Evidence too good to be true, is usually too good to be true.
  6. The impotence of the Never Trumpers.  Organized Never Trumpers have waged a proxy fight against Roy Moore as part of their ongoing war against Trump, which is beyond peculiar since Moore was not Trump’s first pick.  At any rate it demonstrates that the Never Trumpers are a group of chiefs without Indians.
  7. God bless Al Franken and John Conyers.  The antics of Democrats in Congress took the heat, and some of the media, off Roy Moore.  The Democrats think they have turned the corner on this.  I wouldn’t bet on it.  Republicans when they behave like pigs around women are hypocrites.  Democrats when they do so could fairly state, if they were honest, that they were merely emulating some of the most respected members of their party, including Bill Clinton, John F. Kennedy andTed Kennedy.  More to come on both sides of the aisle, but I bet much more to come from the Democrats, who haven’t held up fidelity in marriage as an ideal since Truman.
  8. The Republican establishment is really, really hated by the base of the party.  Roy Moore has been a huge kidney stone for decades for the Alabama GOP and this fact has greatly aided his political career.
  9. Your money is no good here.  Since the scandal card was played against Roy Moore, Doug Jones has been awash in cash.  He is outspending Moore seven to one and he completely dominates the airwaves,  The primary effect of all this spending  seems only to have served to make Roy Moore’s voters more eager to vote.
  10. Abortion.  Alabama is a very pro-life state and Jones is in favor of abortion until the umbilical cord is cut.  The abortion issue is the prime reason why Moore’s voters stayed with him immediately after the scandal broke.
  11. Where dah white women?  Note to Democrats.  When you are attempting to play the race card to drive up the black vote, many blacks find it highly offensive when you produce a brain dead flyer that paints a black man eager to be a sexual predator.

Update:  Two final polls out today.  The Emerson College poll shows Moore with a nine point lead and a Fox News poll which shows Jones with a 10 point lead.  Some pollster is going to be wiping egg off their faces after tomorrow.

9

Sad Clown Departs?

 

 

 

Al Franken, Minnesota’s unfunny prank on the nation, may well depart from the Senate today.  Franken first slinked into the Senate courtesy of a stolen election in 2008.  His tenure in the Senate has been marked by a fervent devotion to the Democrat left, interspersed with occasional clueless buffoonish asides.  To be fair, and it is hard for me with the loathsome Franken, in office he has not been much more buffoonish than the usual Senator.  I would like to say that 22 of his fellow Democrat Senators, realizing that the presence of Franken in the Senate adds a bit to the bad clown act that the contemporary Senate so often evokes, have called for his resignation in some small form of reparation, but alas that is not the case.  The reason is because Franken likes to grope the hind ends of women, and prior to being in the Senate often acted like a buffoonish, groping clown around women.

As to his churlish behavior with women prior to being elected to the Senate, that was no secret for those with eyes to see and ears to hear.  As to his behavior after the election, the women involved were so damaged by his handiwork that they said not a peep, until we entered our current Salem Witch Hunt hysteria in which alleged male gropers are to be swiftly cast out into the outer darkness to wail and gnash their teeth.  Thus Franken is persona non grata now to the same people who had hitherto lauded him as an ornament to the Senate, and who have usually spent their political careers supporting and defending Bill Clinton, who did far worse than grasp the occasional part of a woman’s posterior, and his Enabler-in-Chief Hillary.  Thus this has absolutely zero to do with morality, and everything to do with politics.

If I were Franken I would announce that I was going to resign, but not before August of 2018.  I would also then announce my candidacy for the Senate in the special election that would be held in November of next year, and that the people of Minnesota could then judge if they would want me in the Senate.  I would then advise that I was currently writing a list, and checking it twice, detailing the misdeeds of every member of the Senate and the House with the opposite sex that I was personally  aware of, and would be releasing it as a Christmas present for the nation.  I guarantee that when he released the list Franken would draw a far larger audience than he ever did at SNL.

 

Update:

 

In a sad speech Franken says he will resign in a few weeks:

 

6

2012 Election – The Senate (Part Three)

We’re in the home stretch now as we look at the final set of Senate races. Each of these contests are either complete tossups or utter blowouts.

Pennsylvania – Republican: Tom Smith. Democrat: Bob Casey (Incumbent).

This race had flown under the radar as it appeared that Casey was cruising to re-election. Smith started gaining momentum at a time when nearly every other Republican was losing it, and he has now narrowed the gap. Even when Casey was well ahead he was failing to poll at the magical 50% number. Casey’s problem is representative of the shift in the Pennsylvania Democratic party. While his father was a true social conservative, and therefore a good fit for the state, the younger Casey pays only lip service to abortion and other issues. I think that Casey will survive, but only barely, and for just one more term. Prediction: Democrat hold.

Rhode Island – Republican: Barry Hinckley. Democrat: Sheldon Whitehouse (Incumbent).

A Republican polling firm has this race in single digits. Until I see other polls showing it that close, it still looks to be a pretty safe seat for Whitehouse. Prediction: Democrat hold.

Tennessee – Republican: Bob Corker (Incumbent). Democrat: Mark Clayton.

Corker was just about the only Republican to win a close election in 2006. He won’t have to sweat this time. Prediction: Republican hold.

Texas (open R) – Republican: Ted Cruz. Democrat: Paul Sadler.

Democrats in Texas must feel like Republicans in New York and California. One would think in a state as big as Texas, as Republican-dominated as it is, Democrats would be able to field a semi-competitive candidate. As it is, the real election occurred over the summer when Cruz upset the state’s Lieutenant Governor in a primary runoff. The only question about this contest is how big Cruz’s margin of victory will be. Prediction: Republican hold.

Utah – Republican: Orrin Hatch (Incumbent). Democrat: Scott Howell.

For once Orrin Hatch had to battle for re-election, but it wasn’t the general election that he had to worry about. Hatch was able to avoid the fate of his former colleague, Bob Bennett, and successfully fended off a tea party challenge for the nomination. Hatch had a little more conservative credibility than Bennett, obtaining the support of figures like Mark Levin. Having won re-nomination, Hatch will cruise in the general. Prediction: Republican hold.

Vermont – Republican: John MacGover. Independent: Bernie Sanders (Incumbent).

If there is a silver lining for Republicans, it is that this will continue to be technically a non-Democrat seat. Yeah, I’m stretching. Prediction: Independent hold.

Virginia (open D) – Republican: George Allen. Democrat: Tim Kaine.

In a year of tossups, this might be the tossiest-up of them all. Allen is running to regain the seat that he macaca’d himself out of six years ago. Allen has done better than he did during the last campaign, when he spent the better part of the Fall running negative ads against Jim Webb in a desperate effort to deflect attention away from his macaca moment. The 2006 election was one where partisans on both sides wished both candidates would just go away. Now, in an election pitting two former, relatively popular governors, once again it seems there is surprisingly little enthusiasm. At times it appears that both candidates are kind of going through the motions to win a seat neither really desperately wants, but feel compelled to run for out of some sense of party loyalty. It is truly a strange dynamic, and the voters have expressed their own confusion by failing to break for either candidate. It’s almost impossible to pick a winner, but I’ll go with Allen to win back the seat. No matter who wins, I sense that this will be an open-seat contest again in 2018. Prediction: Republican pickup.

Washington – Republican: Michael Baumgartner. Democrat: Maria Cantwell (Incumbent).

Another seat that the Republicans had some hopes for at the beginning of the year, but this was never a race. Prediction: Democrat hold.

West Virginia – Republican: John Raese. Democrat: Joe Manchin (Democrat).

Manchin has done a masterful job of persuading Mountaineers that he’s a rogue independent while siding with his party when it really matters. Prediction: Democrat hold.

Wisconsin (open D) – Republican: Tommy Thompson. Democrat: Tammy Baldwin.

This race has followed a path unlike most of the others. When former governor Tommy Thompson won the nomination this seemed like a prime Republican pickup opportunity, and Thompson did hold a double digit lead over the summer. Baldwin received a nice post-convention bounce, and she and Thompson have swapped leads it seems with every other poll. Thompson may have seemed like the safe choice for many Republicans in the state, but this is a case where the other candidate’s relative youth may be too much to overcome. Prediction: Democrat hold.

Wyoming – Republican: John Barrasso (Incumbent). Democrat: Tim Chestnut.

I don’t anticipate we’ll be up late waiting to hear a winner announced here. Prediction: Republican hold.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I have the Republicans picking up Florida, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Virginia, while losing Maine. That would be a net gain of five seats for the GOP, giving them a 52-48 majority (assuming the independents caucus with Democrats). I’m starting to rethink my Florida and Missouri calls, though I can see Ohio, Pennsylvania, and especially Wisconsin breaking in their favor (though Massachusetts can also swing the other way). Whatever the case may be, my most fearless prediction is this: we will know the identity of the next president much earlier in the evening on election night than we will which party will control the Senate.

9

2012 Election – The Senate (Part 2)

Minnesota – Republican: Kurt Bills. Democrat: Amy Klobuchar (Incumbent).

Minnesota feels like the mirror image of Arizona. It’s a state that a lot of people keep expecting to turn more purple, but it just never does. While Romney could eek out a victory here if the presidential election turns into a blowout, Klobuchar is quite safe. Prediction: Democrat hold.

Mississippi – Republican: Roger Wicker (Incumbent). Democrat: Albert N. Gore.

Yes, Gore is indeed a distant relative of the former Vice President. And he has about as much of a chance of winning here as the other Gore would. Prediction: Republican hold.

Missouri – Republican: Todd Akin. Democrat: Claire McCaskill (Incumbent).

Originally thought to be one of the Republican’s surest pickup opportunities, Akin had to go and open his mouth. Despite pleas to drop out of the race, Akin stubbornly stayed in and seemingly doomed the GOP here. Of course he had a secret weapon ready to deploy: his opponent. The fact is, McCaskill is a deeply unpopular Senator who is far too left-wing for her state. Throw in some corruption, and suddenly Mr. Legitimate Rape has a shot. With the polls narrowing, Republicans will have no choice but to throw some money Akin’s way. Looks like he’ll have the last laugh. Prediction: Republican pickup.

Montana – Republican: Danny Rehberg. Democrat: John Tester (Incumbent).

Tester defeated incumbent Conrad Burns by less than 3,000 votes in 2006, and it looks like this is turning out to be another nail-biter. With Montana and North Dakota having close Senate elections, we might be up late on election night wondering who has control of the Senate long after the presidential race has been decided.  Rehberg is the at-large Representative for Montana, so he is as familiar face with the electorate as Tester. Considering that this is a more favorable year for Republicans than 2006, I think Rehberg will win a squeaker. Prediction: Republican pickup.

Nebraska (open D) – Republican: Deb Fischer. Democrat: Bob Kerrey.

This race was decided the day Ben Nelson decided to accept the “Cornhusker Kickback” in exchange for voting for Obamacare. The Democrats had to pluck Bob Kerrey out of retirement in New York in order to even pretend that they had a chance, but this is the one GOP layup for the evening. Prediction: Republican pickup.

Nevada – Republican: Dean Heller (Incumbent). Democrat: Shelley Berkley.

The polls have been narrow throughout, but Heller has maintained a consistent edge in the range of 2-5 percent. Most worrisome for Heller is that he has only cracked 50% in one poll, which is always a danger sign for incumbents. Once again the momentum of the presidential race might determine the ultimate outcome, but it looks like Heller should be able to hang on. Prediction: Republican hold.

New Jersey – Republican: Joe Kyrillos. Democrat: Bob Menendez (Incumbent).

Every now and then New Jersey tantalizes Republicans. Once a fairly strong suburban stronghold for the GOP, it has become a solid blue state since the Clinton years. Though Republicans have done well on the gubernatorial level, and though they do actually have an even split with Democrats in the House caucus, the GOP just has never been able to breakthrough in the Senate. That will not be changing this year. Prediction: Democrat hold.

New Mexico (open D) – Republican: Heather Wilson. Democrat: Martin Heinrich.

New Mexico has been the one semi-swing state that hasn’t turned towards the Republicans this cycle. President Obama seems safe here, and Heinrich has opened up a comfortable double-digit lead. Prediction: Democrat hold.

New York – Republican: Wendy Long. Democrat: Kirsten Gillenbrand (Incumbent).

Believe it or not, but when I was a kid growing up in New York the Republican party in the state wasn’t a joke. Prediction: Democrat hold.

North Dakota (open D) – Republican: Rick Berg. Democrat: Heidi Heitkamp.

For the second cycle in a row, a Democrat retirement has opened up an opportunity for the Republicans to pickup a Senate seat in North Dakota. Unlike last time, this will not be a cakewalk for the Republican candidate. Congressman Rick Berg is running against Attorney General Heitkamp. The polling here has been sparse, so it’s difficult to know how the race stacks up. Even though Romney will win here fairly comfortably, and even though the state trends pretty heavily towards the GOP, this is far from a lock for Berg. I predict he will pull it out, but this is going to be very close. Prediction: Republican pickup.

Ohio – Republican: Josh Mandel. Democrat: Sherrod Brown (Incumbent).

Mandel had this race close, but then Brown started to pull ahead after the Democratic convention. The race has tightened up again, but Brown has a decent-sized lead. Once again, though, Brown fails to poll above 50%. Since Ohio could be viewed as the Democrats’ firewall for both the presidency and the Senate, I do not envy anyone living in the state. My advice – turn off the television. At any rate, though Brown is far to the left of the majority of the state, he is a tough guy to beat. I think Brown will hold on, but this race could easily shift towards Mandel in the closing moments. Prediction: Democrat hold.

9

2012 Election: The Senate

Perhaps it’s just me, but it seems that even the Senate races are getting less attention than usual this year. I live in proximity to one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country, and it’s gotten relatively little attention. It’s all the more amazing considering that almost half of the races are fairly competitive, and the gap between the parties is small. Currently, Republicans hold 47 seats while Democrats have 53 (including two independents that caucus with them). If Mitt Romney is elected, Republicans will need to pickup a net of three seats in order to win effective control of the Senate. Considering recent Senatorial history, Republicans would do well to win a few extra seats.

Since Democrats have to defend two-thirds of the seats up for election this cycle, it would seem that Republicans should have a good chance of winning back control of the Senate. Unfortunately a couple of key retirements and several inopportune gaffes have made the Republican road to Senate control all the more difficult.

All that said, I will briefly analyze each of the Senate races. With 33 seats up for grabs, I will be splitting up these posts in batches of 11 each, working my way through them alphabetically. So let’s get to it. Continue Reading