I do not think I will ever trust polls again. Defying almost all the polls, Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore yesterday to win the special election to fill the Alabama Senate seat. Jones, a liberal pro-abort, will hold the seat until 2020 when he will be up for re-election. Jones won by a 14,000 vote margin, far too large I think to be overturned in a recount, unless fraud on a massive scale occurred. I did find it very interesting, and suspicious, last night that the votes from the two Democrat strongholds of Montgomery and Birmingham were quite late in being reported. It reminded me of many an election night in Illinois in close state wide races, when, for some mysterious reason, the Chicago vote was very slow being reported. Having said that, I do not expect that the election results will change.
The much ballyhooed write in effort yielded slightly over one percent of the vote total and was not a significant factor, unless one assumes that these voters would have voted for Moore, rather than stayed home or voted for Jones, which I do not. The outcome hinged on the simple fact that a lot of Republicans stayed home and a few voted for Jones. To add perspective to this, in November 2016 Trump clobbered Clinton with a 28 point margin and a total vote margin of 1.3 million to around 729k for Clinton. Jones got fewer votes than Clinton did and Moore got about half of the votes that Trump did. A huge number of Republicans were MIA.
Doubtless there will be attempts to hang this defeat around the neck of Trump, which is absurd. This was all about Moore. Absent the scandals he would have prevailed, probably with about the same 4 point margin of victory that he enjoyed in his last state wide race in 2012.
Almost all of the polls completely missed what was coming, and in close races the polls seem to be currently about as predictive as tossing a coin, or looking at chicken entrails.