33

Roy Moore Loses

I do not think I will ever trust polls again.  Defying almost all the polls, Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore yesterday to win the special election to fill the Alabama Senate seat.  Jones, a liberal pro-abort, will hold the seat until 2020 when he will be up for re-election.  Jones won by a 14,000 vote margin, far too large I think to be overturned in a recount, unless fraud on a massive scale occurred.  I did find it very interesting, and suspicious, last night that the votes from the two Democrat strongholds of Montgomery and Birmingham were quite late in being reported.  It reminded me of many an election night in Illinois in close state wide races, when, for some mysterious reason, the Chicago vote was very slow being reported.  Having said that, I do not expect that the election results will change.

The much ballyhooed write in effort yielded slightly over one percent of the vote total and was not a significant factor, unless one assumes that these voters would have voted for Moore, rather than stayed home or voted for Jones, which I do not.  The outcome hinged on the simple fact that a lot of Republicans stayed home and a few voted for Jones.  To add perspective to this, in November 2016 Trump clobbered Clinton with a 28 point margin and a total vote margin of 1.3 million to around 729k for Clinton.  Jones got fewer votes than Clinton did and Moore got about half of the votes that Trump did.  A huge number of Republicans were MIA.

Doubtless there will be attempts to hang this defeat around the neck of Trump, which is absurd.  This was all about Moore.  Absent the scandals he would have prevailed, probably with about the same 4 point margin of victory that he enjoyed in his last state wide race in 2012.

Almost all of the polls completely missed what was coming, and in close races the polls seem to be currently about as predictive as tossing a coin, or looking at chicken entrails.

12

Moore v. Jones: A Pre-Mortem

Well, the Roy Moore v. Doug Jones race will be mercifully over tomorrow, and all current polls show Moore ahead.  Nothing is ever certain in politics, but it looks like Moore is headed to victory.  A few observations:

 

  1.  Alabama is a very red state.  In the divided state of our politics today, it is almost as hard for a Democrat to win a state-wide race in Alabama as it is for a Republican to win a state-wide race in California.
  2. If the scandal card is played, do it close to the election.  Moore had enough time to recover from the scandal allegations, and he did.
  3. The national news media is really, really hated by conservatives.  Moore has received somewhat worse coverage from the media than a reincarnated Hitler would, and that fact probably redounds to his advantage in Alabama.
  4. Gloria Allred.  If you are trying to win an election in a red state, having Gloria Allred do one of her dog and pony press conferences is death on ice for the candidate she supports.
  5. Beware of evidence too good to be true.  The whole scandal began to unravel with the yearbook.  Evidence too good to be true, is usually too good to be true.
  6. The impotence of the Never Trumpers.  Organized Never Trumpers have waged a proxy fight against Roy Moore as part of their ongoing war against Trump, which is beyond peculiar since Moore was not Trump’s first pick.  At any rate it demonstrates that the Never Trumpers are a group of chiefs without Indians.
  7. God bless Al Franken and John Conyers.  The antics of Democrats in Congress took the heat, and some of the media, off Roy Moore.  The Democrats think they have turned the corner on this.  I wouldn’t bet on it.  Republicans when they behave like pigs around women are hypocrites.  Democrats when they do so could fairly state, if they were honest, that they were merely emulating some of the most respected members of their party, including Bill Clinton, John F. Kennedy andTed Kennedy.  More to come on both sides of the aisle, but I bet much more to come from the Democrats, who haven’t held up fidelity in marriage as an ideal since Truman.
  8. The Republican establishment is really, really hated by the base of the party.  Roy Moore has been a huge kidney stone for decades for the Alabama GOP and this fact has greatly aided his political career.
  9. Your money is no good here.  Since the scandal card was played against Roy Moore, Doug Jones has been awash in cash.  He is outspending Moore seven to one and he completely dominates the airwaves,  The primary effect of all this spending  seems only to have served to make Roy Moore’s voters more eager to vote.
  10. Abortion.  Alabama is a very pro-life state and Jones is in favor of abortion until the umbilical cord is cut.  The abortion issue is the prime reason why Moore’s voters stayed with him immediately after the scandal broke.
  11. Where dah white women?  Note to Democrats.  When you are attempting to play the race card to drive up the black vote, many blacks find it highly offensive when you produce a brain dead flyer that paints a black man eager to be a sexual predator.

Update:  Two final polls out today.  The Emerson College poll shows Moore with a nine point lead and a Fox News poll which shows Jones with a 10 point lead.  Some pollster is going to be wiping egg off their faces after tomorrow.

8

Moore and Kennedy

Yeah, yeah I know, Tu quoque, and I don’t care a red cent.  Kennedy was regaled as the Lion of the Senate.  At his death he received a virtual canonization mass:

 

 

My favorite sendoff for Kennedy, to highlight the difference in treatment of Moore and Kennedy, came with this piece of bilge written by Melissa Lasky at Huffington Post:

 

Mary Jo wasn’t a right-wing talking point or a negative campaign slogan. She was a dedicated civil rights activist and political talent with a bright future — granted, whenever someone dies young, people sermonize about how he had a “bright future” ahead of him — but she actually did. She wasn’t afraid to defy convention (28 and unmarried, oh the horror!) or create her own career path based on her talents. She lived in Georgetown (where I grew up) and loved the Red Sox (we’ll forgive her for that). Then she got in a car driven by a 36-year-old senator with an alcohol problem and a cauldron full of demons, and wound up a controversial footnote in a dynasty.

We don’t know how much Kennedy was affected by her death, or what she’d have thought about arguably being a catalyst for the most successful Senate career in history. What we don’t know, as always, could fill a Metrodome.

Still, ignorance doesn’t preclude a right to wonder. So it doesn’t automatically make someone (aka, me) a Limbaugh-loving, aerial-wolf-hunting NRA troll for asking what Mary Jo Kopechne would have had to say about Ted’s death, and what she’d have thought of the life and career that are being (rightfully) heralded.

Who knows — maybe she’d feel it was worth it.

When liberals attempt to assert the moral high ground in regard to Moore, please always recall that for most of them such maneuvers are merely tactical in nature.

19

The Case of Judge Roy Moore and the Divorcee

 

 

Some interesting facts came out yesterday in regard to Moore and his accuser of sexual assault Beverly Young Nelson.  Apparently Judge Moore, when he was a local trial judge, presided over Ms. Nelson’s divorce case in 1999, a factoid that Ms. Nelson did not mention in her tearjerker appearance with Gloria “no ambulance should go unchased” Allred.  Based on my experience of 35 years in the law mines that, alone, is enough to torpedo her accusation.  First, because if it were true her attorney would immediately have filed a motion for substitution of judge.  Second, because it gives her a motive to lie.  Judges rarely make friends when presiding over a divorce case, and they often make lifelong enemies from one of the participants who believe they got the raw end of the stick.  This was a simple fact to find out, and it says all you need to know about the lynch mob media that none of them bothered to even do a cursory investigation of Beverly Young Nelson.

Moore’s attorney, in the above video, also notes that Judge Moore’s signature on the divorce dismissal, had DA stamped after it, the initials of his then administrative assistant.  Here is his signature in that case:

 

 

Moore’s attorney also called for the year book to be placed in neutral hands to be examined by experts in handwriting and ink.  Here is the spluttering reaction of  Gloria “no ambulance should go unchased” Allred to all that.

 

 

Friends, on the question of whether Judge Moore ever assaulted anyone this is a railroad job pure and simple.  Did Moore seek dates with legal teenagers, yeah, I believe that.  Did he ever sexually assault anyone?  Not from the evidence I have thus far seen.

24

Roy Moore: Send in the Clowns

Every good dog and pony show should have a clown interlude and that was supplied yesterday by Gloria “No ambulance should go unchased” Allred.

 

 

 

 

 

Go here to read the accusations of Beverly Nelson Young, who, coincidentally (?), was in the same high school class as Moore’s future wife, who he married in 1984.  Moore has denied everything, and go here to look at a video of his statement.

 

What I find fascinating is the alleged signing by Moore of her yearbook.  I have long regarded handwriting analysis as at best an art rather than a science, but there are people on the internet pointing out facts that might indicate a forgery.  Go here to take a look at one of the posts alleging this.

 

I am not a handwriting analyst, and I will not play one on this blog, but I do have a few questions:

 

  1. Why would Moore sign himself as DA, rather than the Deputy District Attorney, the first full time one appointed in the history of Etowah County?  Attorneys tend to be precise about the offices they hold, and Moore, a newly minted attorney, would have been unlikely to claim the title of his boss.
  2. Why was the restaurant called the Olde Hickory House rather than the Old Hickory House, its correct name?  An odd mistake for Moore to make if he was a regular there, as the alleged victim claimed.  (Scratch this one.  An ad has appeared from 1978 in which the name of the business was spelled Olde Hickory House.)
  3. Handwriting tends to change as people grow older.  (I know mine has.)  How was Moore signing his name back in 1977?
  4. Why give a precise date, 12-22-77, after the note, when the note indicates it was written at Christmas 1977?
  5. OK, I will lapse into handwriting expert just once:  the 77 in Christmas 1977 and in 12-22-77 look different to my completely untrained eyes.
  6. Assuming that Moore had nefarious intent for the young lady, would he, as an attorney, have been stupid enough to give a potential written evidence hostage for the future?  I have been an attorney for 35 years and I can attest that most attorneys tend to be a cautious breed when it comes to protecting themselves.
  7. Why would the alleged victim treat the inscription like a family heirloom all these years?  Why didn’t she rip out the page, strike it out, or have colorful commentary by her written under it noting his attempt to rape her?

I have been involved in more than a few cases where a purported haymaker piece of evidence rebounds on those who seek to use it.  If I were Moore, and if I were innocent, I would demand that the yearbook be submitted to a panel of experts to analyze the handwriting and to attempt to determine the age of the ink.  Stay tuned for future developments in this ongoing soap opera.

 

 

58

Roy Moore and Thirty-Eight Year Old Allegations

The Washington Post delivers a trade mark  eleventh hour hit piece on Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama:

 

Corfman, 53, who works as a customer service representative at a payday loan business, says she has voted for Republicans in the past three presidential elections, including for Donald Trump in 2016. She says she thought of confronting Moore personally for years, and almost came forward publicly during his first campaign for state Supreme Court in 2000, but decided against it. Her two children were still in school then and she worried about how it would affect them. She also was concerned that her background — three divorces and a messy financial history — might undermine her credibility.

“There is no one here that doesn’t know that I’m not an angel,” Corfman says, referring to her home town of Gadsden.

Corfman described her story consistently in six interviews with The Post. The Post confirmed that her mother attended a hearing at the courthouse in February 1979 through divorce records. Moore’s office was down the hall from the courtroom.

Neither Corfman nor any of the other women sought out The Post. While reporting a story in Alabama about supporters of Moore’s Senate campaign, a Post reporter heard that Moore allegedly had sought relationships with teenage girls. Over the ensuing three weeks, two Post reporters contacted and interviewed the four women. All were initially reluctant to speak publicly but chose to do so after multiple interviews, saying they thought it was important for people to know about their interactions with Moore. The women say they don’t know one another.

Go here to read the rest.  The only story that has mileage is the one with Corfman who was fourteen at the time.  I am skeptical.  I have followed Moore’s career for a very long time.  He has been controversial for his stances, and hated for them, not only by Democrats, but by the Republican establishment in Alabama for decades.  Every piece of dirt imaginable has been thrown at him, but never a hint of sexual scandal, until yesterday.  If there were even rumors that he was chasing underage girls, this would have been front page news long ago.  For my sins, I have been an attorney for 35 years and I have learned that the older an allegation is, the more skepticism is warranted.  The burden of proof is on the accuser, and that burden isn’t close to being met.  Just one example is the undisclosed fact of who put the Washington Post in contact with Corfman and the other women.  If this allegation were brought in court it wouldn’t survive a motion to dismiss drafted by a new attorney who graduated last in her class.  In politics however, evidence and allegations are often not on speaking terms.

 

Update 1: 

One of Moore’s accusers is a far left partisan, now trying to conceal that fact.  Go here to read about it.  You can toss on the ash heap the myth that all the accusers are apolitical people, reluctant to come forward.  I am shocked, shocked I tell you!

 

11

Roy Moore Wins

West Point grad, Vietnam Vet, and former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, Roy Moore, decisively beat incumbent Luther Strange in the Republican primary and will now go to the general election in Alabama on December 12 against Democrat Doug Jones.  The Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Alabama since 1992.

Trump endorsed Strange and campaigned for him, but Moore, an unconventional politician to say the least, seems more in the Trumpian mode of being outside of conventional politics.  Moore was heavily supported by Breitbart chief Steve Bannon, in a slap against his former boss.   As a trial judge in Alabama Moore successfully defended his right to keep a copy of the Ten Commandments on the wall of his courtroom.

He was elected Alabama Chief Justice in 2000 in an upset election.  Removed from office in 2003 due to clashes with Federal Judges, he was re-elected in 2012.  (In each of his elections Moore has been heavily outspent by his adversaries, usually five to six to one.  In the current election he just won he was outspent fifteen to one.)  In 2016 Moore defied the Supreme Court’s gay marriage ruling, and for his was suspended from office.  He resigned to run for  the Senate.

Moore has been a building political force in Alabama for decades, and I expect him to crush the Democrat in December.  The Senate will be a livelier place with him.