Well, each year I make predictions for the coming year and the following year I eat some crow. Here beginneth the crow eating:
1. The GOP will retain the House in the 2012 elections. Both parties in the House assume that is going to happen, as nine Democrats, most of them veteran members, are retiring, to zip for the GOP.
The GOP did retain the House. Would that all my predictions had been as accurate.
2. The GOP will gain the Senate. 21 Democrats, 10 Republican and 2 Independent seats are up, and the GOP only needs to flip 4, or 3 if they win the White House. I see the GOP flipping Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska and North Dakota, with possibles in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. I see the Democrats flipping Massachusetts with a possible in Nevada.
Nope the Republicans actually managed to lose 2 seats with the Senate now 53-45 with 2 independents.
3. Despite a lacklustre group of candidates I do believe that the GOP will gain the White House. The economy is simply too dismal for this election to be anything except a referendum on Obama’s stewardship of the economy, and I do not think that all the campaign money and friendly media in the world can transform this particular pig’s ear into a silk purse. Jay Cost, one of the best political analysts extant, has a good article here detailing the odds against Obama. Heaven knows that missteps by the GOP could help Obama a great deal, but at the end I think there are just too many people who believe the country is on the wrong track for Obama to win.
Alas no. Obama ran a base election and Romney never succeeded in firing up the Republican base and just barely managed to get more votes than McCain in 2008. Obama was off several million from his vote total in 2008 and a competent Republican campaign should have defeated him.
4. A repeat from last year: either North Korea or Iran will go through a violent revolution that will topple one of the regimes in 2012.
Nope, both regimes are still hanging on, although I would not be surprised to see one or both go the way of Syria eventually. With nuclear weaponry in North Korea, and soon to come in Iran, that would make for interesting times for the entire planet.
5. A major terrorist incident will occur in the United States during the coming year as the jihadists attempt some payback for Osama, and as the factions among the terrorists jockey for power.
No, the major terrorist incident occurred in Libya instead on the anniversary of 9-11. The American people, shamefully, largely yawned. Continue Reading