Predictions 2017

Thursday, December 29, AD 2016

 

 

Well, here I stroll once again in where angels fear to tread and make my predictions for 2017:

1. President Trump will issue a pardon to Hillary Clinton.

2. Isis will be eliminated from Iraq.

3. There will be more than one assassination attempt against President Trump, each unsuccessful.

4. Pope Francis will attempt to excommunicate one or more of the Cardinals who oppose him.

5. There will be a major confrontation between Trump and Putin, and Putin will back down.

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30 Responses to Predictions 2017

  • I’ll go along with you on number ten….
    I’ll have to give you credit for the clearly specific and difficult predictions. Timidity is not your calling card with this stuff.
    I would be more inclined to predict;
    1.At least one celebrity will criticize Trump.
    2. There will be lots of shootings in Chicago
    3.Hillary will announce something.
    4. John McCain and Lindsey Graham will agree on something.
    5.The Dow will reach 20,000
    6. A new study will prove an old study wrong.
    7. A hip hop singer will sing something I can’t understand.
    8 The Media will actually do their job and finally criticize the president.
    9. There will be a large controversy in the Vatican.
    10. Inner-city poverty and crime will continue.

  • As we all know, 2017 marks the 100th anniversary of Fatima. “Something(s)” will happen I’m sure. Whether it’s something(s) I would like to see remains to be seen. What would I like to see ? Vindication for the good in a constructive and positive sense. — For example a universal return to public morals without it being occasioned by some horrible tragedy or suffering.

  • “Two Democrat US Senators will switch to the Republican party.”
    .
    Do you have an idea of which two?

  • Probably Manchin of West Virginia and either Heitkamp of North Dakota or Joe Donnelly of Indiana.

  • 4. Pope Francis will attempt to excommunicate one or more of the Cardinals who oppose him.

    Nah, if he really is the progressive every makes him out to be, then direct excommunication is simply too on the nose and confrontational. Instead, you will see lots of passive-aggressive death-by-a-thousand-cuts.

  • 1) The truth will remain the truth.

    I’ve got no others. I don’t think I’ve ever been this unsure of the future on the world stage. So many of the big players are opportunists, and they can sense change. I wouldn’t want to be a Yemeni or bet against the Cowboys this year. Otherwise, we’ll see what happens.

  • Well Don, so far you can already claim 1 out of 10 correct, and the year hasn’t even started.
    😉

  • 1. The idiots that screamed they’d flee (I thought about typing “flea”) America when Trump won will one, stay in the USA and two, continue to give evidence that they are vociferous imbeciles.

  • The trend for 2017 – compass-neutral directions, to avoid giving offense:
    .
    “Drive Sorth until Exit 5 – Turn Ut – Continue 1.5 miles Est”

  • Don

    I’m all for number NINE

    I. Obama may do it first. In any case I hope it comes with an obligation for her to testify against all her accomplices.

    4. I don’t think it will be an excomation but his holiness will try to force the issue somehow, it will probably back fire to no short term benefit for the Church.

    8 in the next three four years. Also the chance of a China Philippines clash is just as likley

  • I see you have potentially created the Liar’s Paradox with your last prediction! If all of your other predictions are correct, then your last one is wrong. But if it’s wrong, it’s correct. But if it’s correct, it’s wrong…. Let’s hope Trump doesn’t pardon Clinton, both because she doesn’t deserve a pardon, and to monkey wrench the paradox created by prediction 10.

  • Very good and very reasonable Don. My expectation is for something much more dramatic than you have outlined. My guess is some kind of divine intervention tied in with the 100th anniversary of Our Lady of Fatima, e.g., Pope Francis repents or dies and we get a conservative Pope, Vatican is demolished by earthquake or meteor, a dozen Cardinals join SSPX, etc.

  • My fear, and God forbid, is that an attempt on Trump will be successful.

  • And an unsuccessful attempt at his life could bring Trump into being more dictatorial than Obama already is.

  • I’m joining the disagreement with #4. It’s just too…formal. It takes strict actions that seem out of character.
    ******
    LQC- thankfully, we’re protected from that by Trump not having the “whatcha gonna do, STOP me?” power that Obama has from being a Democrat and good at playing the grievance games.

  • Are the two democrats Graham and McCain ?
    Timothy R.

  • Are the two democrats Graham and McCain ?

    The American Conservative Union reports that Mr. McCain has voted their way 82% of the time over the 34 years he’s been in Congress and that Mr. Graham has voted their way 86% of the time over the 20 years he’s been in Congress. McCain’s voting record had a phase-change around 1997 and his means have been around 77% of all votes logged since that time. There’s no secular trend in his voting record. Mr. Graham’s record does appear to have growb less starboard over the last 8 years. (There was no trend prior to 2009, when he voted to the right about 90% of the time). His median score post-2008 is still 75%.

  • I’d have to know what the ACU supports before I’d be sure that someone voting with them means they’re actually conservative– sort of like when I hear some “pro-life group” announcing that so-and-so has an awesome score with them, while someone else does not…and when you dig in, it’s because so-and-so is “pro life” in the welfare, ban guns, remove the death penalty and nanny state way, rather than the “don’t kill babies” way.
    ****************
    Now, according to the ACU’s website, their ratings are on secretly chosen legislation where they don’t tell anybody ahead of time that they’re going to record it for comparison. I would guess that they’d protect their brand by choosing uncontroversial conservative issues where there isn’t broad agreement between the parties.
    Here’s McCain’s chart:
    http://acuratings.conservative.org/acu-ratings-chart/?UID=1373
    You’ll note the 67% for last year, and that before ’98, it bounced all around above 70; since the, it just bounces all around. This is a pattern you’d expect of, say, a Zell Miller.
    Here’s Graham’s:
    http://acuratings.conservative.org/acu-ratings-chart/?UID=759
    that “trend” would be better described as “dropping like a rock.”
    ******
    Lifetime ratings are rather misleading when we’re talking about career guys.

  • #11. A Naval Ship to be named after you…The Deplorables. The petition is circulating. 🙂

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/12/13/white-house-petition-suggests-naming-next-navy-ship-uss-deplorables.html

    What a great way to remember the failure of the beast.

  • I was thinking of the remarks I’ve heard, and the attitudes coming from, the Book Ends.
    Where’s Captain Katzenjammer with his belt when we need him ?
    Timothy R.

  • Jesus appeared to a bishop, proffered a sword (the rosary) and said repeatedly “Boko Haram is gone”. Now there are reports that the military leaders in Nigeria are talking about having defeated Boko Haram.
    I think there have been dire predictions for 2017, and probably true, but- where sin abounds, Grace does more so. So I think 2017 will be a great occasion for grace and many surprising good things will happen.
    Nigeria Boko Haram: Militants ‘technically defeated …
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35173618

  • Ok. I’ll explain. The “Book Ends” ARE the Katzenjammer Twins. The “Captain” might turn out to be Trump. As Arnold liked to say, “Vee shall see”.
    Timothy R.

  • I’d have to know what the ACU supports before I’d be sure that someone voting

    The specific votes they make use of to produce their indices are indicated on the annual ratings. In contrast to the situation 40 years ago, the Democratic and Republican caucuses separate into distinct piles. This has been so since about 1995. There’s only one Democrat in Congress who has a lifetime rating over 30, and only about 10 with a score higher than 20. No Republicans have scores lower than 30. Among the Republican caucus, McCain’s scores are around the 35th percentile and Graham’s scores are around the 48th percentile.

    The Democratic caucus was more variegated when Zell Miller was in Congress and about 14% of the caucus at that time had lifetime scores above 30% (of whom about 2/3 were Southerners). Zell Miller was only in Congress for about 4 years and he had the highest score logged by any Democratic legislator in that time, so I’m not sure how he’s supposed to be indicative of much of anything.

    I think those trading in the RINO discourse would be more concise if they’d just say Ted Cruz is the only authentic Republican in the Senate. Does seem a tad sectarian, though…

  • Strawmen do frequently seem a bit “off,” especially when you’re trying to defend what amounts to C students in classes that should be an easy A.

  • Strawmen do frequently seem a bit “off,” especially when you’re trying to defend what amounts to C students in classes that should be an easy A.

    I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean. If you fancy that 35% of the Congressional Republican caucus or 48% of the Congressional Republican caucus are crypto-Democrats, you are welcome to try to make that case.

    Again, 86% of the ballots in the 2008 Republican presidential donnybrook were won by John McCain, Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 52% of the ballots. In 2016, Donald Trump and John Kasich won 58% of the ballots between them. In 2000, George W Bush and John McCain won over 90% of the ballots. In 1996, Robert Dole won 57% of the ballots. In 1988, George Bush and Robert Dole won over 80% of the ballots. The people pushing the RINO blather might ask themselves why so many of the bearers of authentic Republicanism seem to assiduously avoid voting.

  • I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean. If you fancy that 35% of the Congressional Republican caucus or 48% of the Congressional Republican caucus are crypto-Democrats, you are welcome to try to make that case.
    Why on earth would I defend yet another of your strawmen, especially when you choose to ignore a really simple and flat statement in favor of building a new one and then charging off after a new windmill?

  • Why on earth would I defend yet another of your strawmen, especially when you choose to ignore a really simple and flat statement in favor of building a new one and then charging off after a new windmill?

    The term ‘strawman’ does not mean what you fancy it means.

  • You vigorously attack arguments that only you’ve advanced, while ignoring the arguments that are being made.
    Pretty much textbook.

  • In his opening remarks on an episode of his long-running TV show Wall Street Week Louis Rukeyser said that people who make their living by crystal-ball predictions have to eat a lot of crushed glass.

  • I see you have potentially created the Liar’s Paradox with your last prediction! If all of your other predictions are correct, then your last one is wrong.
    –Alphatron Shinyskullus

    Mr. McClarey’s Chicago Cubs will keep the universe intact by preventing such a paradox.

Predictions of Times Past

Wednesday, December 28, AD 2016

 

Time for me to look at my predictions for this year and to dine on a bit of crow:

1. The GOP national ticket will consist of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, but I am uncertain as to which of them will be the nominee for President.

The correct answer of course was neither.

2. By the time of the conventions Donald Trump will be a spent force.  He will run third party in the fall with a Democrat in the second slot.  He will draw about seven percent of the vote, and his votes will come from both parties.

That is certainly a large piece of crow to consume!

3. Clinton will win the Democrat nomination, unless health problems force her to retire from the race.  Bernie Sanders will bolt the convention and run third party, drawing about two percent of the vote.

Not too shabby, especially concerning the health issue.  Bernie Sanders was a good soldier for the Democrats, but the Green candidate did take about 1% of the vote right out of Clinton’s hide.

4. The Republicans will win the presidential race.

Bingo!

5. The Republicans will retain control of both Houses of Congress.

On target.

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16 Responses to Predictions of Times Past

  • Half the time your right.
    One could say that your glass of Jameson’s is half full.
    Not bad.
    Slainte. 🙂

  • Mr. McClarey, I cannot imagine anyone could have predicted how this year’s
    presidential race unfolded. There is no shame in not seeing this one coming.

  • Partial credit on #2, since P-E Trump certainly did earn votes from both sides.
    As far as Trump making the ticket, only 2 people seemed to think that possible in early days—Ann Coulter, and Donald Trump.
    Excellent job overall. Criswell would be envious! I can’t wait for your 2017 predictions—wild times in store?

  • 8. There will be a naval clash between Japan and China.
    ———-

    Why do you think this is so? Because China will be the aggressor?

  • Don, I told you The Don would win after Cruz got eliminated.

  • “8. There will be a naval clash between Japan and China.”

    China has been flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and making belligerent noises against Japan. This is being done largely as a distraction from domestic problems that the Chinese regime is ill-advised to deal with. China’s leaders face a nightmare of civil war and rebellions if the situation gets much worse, and traditionally playing up a foreign threat is the main way Chinese governments in trouble have traditionally reacted to such challenges. Vietnam sees war coming and is allying itself with the West.

  • You did indeed Don, and ultimately I agreed with you!

  • I hope the future will reveal a President Rubio in store for us.
    Timothy R.

  • Like suz I give partial credit on # 2. As she said, T. drew votes from both parties. Also, he didn’t quite create or run a third party, but he is certainly an unconventional Republican to say the least. He won the GOP nomination as much in spite of some of its members as because of them. He could qualify as quasi-third party.

    As far as predicting a Cruz/Rubio ticket — two hispanics (Cuban Americans) on the same Pres. /VP ballot ? And neither one a good Catholic. Cruz is more like an evangelical preacher. My impression of Rubio is that he is an on-again-off-gain lukewarm Catholic. I think he has called himself an evangelical Catholic, which I believe is how now protestant ex-Catholic Pence refers to himself. I don’t think they would have gotten a big uptick in the hispanic vote — older generation Cuban immigrants already vote Republican and I don’t think it would have appealed to the Mexicans unless they offered a good amnesty package. Of course a lot of people in Texas were behind Cruz, and Rubio probably would’ve won Florida. So — was it the electoral college votes of those two states that would have made them a “hot ticket” ? I voted Trump in the primary.

  • I just looked back on my predictions on this site, and I didn’t get much right at all. I saw Cruz winning. I did predict that Clinton would complain about “he’s bullying a girl” and it’d backfire, so I’ll count that as an insight, and I predicted that the inner-city murder rate would become a campaign issue. Otherwise, no gold in the pan.

  • China’s leaders face a nightmare of civil war and rebellions if the situation gets much worse, and traditionally playing up a foreign threat is the main way Chinese governments in trouble have traditionally reacted to such challenges. Vietnam sees war coming and is allying itself with the West.

    ——————–

    I know that ever once in a while, a group of Chinese folks go nuts because they simply cannot take it any more and promptly get slaughtered. What groups in China would have the ability to start an actual civil war & under what cause?

  • Elements of the army. A return to the warlordism of the twenties and the thirties of the last century is the nightmare of the current Chinese government. China really isn’t a country as we understand the term. China has a coastal crust that is rapidly modernizing and a huge interior where there is ever growing anger about living conditions.

  • I enjoy trying to predict just as much as anyone else. However, the Christian side of me encourages me to shed some of the logic, or, at least try to keep it in it’s place.
    Because of this, I am going to postulate that the Lord does not endow us with the ability to always see into the future, because He wants us to experience Hope.
    If a loved one is sick, we Hope that they will pull through. And Hope can be a form of prayer.
    Timothy R.

  • playing up a foreign threat is the main way Chinese governments in trouble have traditionally reacted to such challenges.

    To be fair, it seems to be the way most governments deflect attention from domestic problems.

  • China’s leaders face a nightmare of civil war and rebellions if the situation gets much worse, and traditionally playing up a foreign threat is the main way Chinese governments in trouble have traditionally reacted to such challenges.

    The “it belongs to China because it says ‘China Sea’ right there in the name” shtick is also a really good resource grab, and a chance to insult the “international community”– triple advantage.

Predictions 2013

Sunday, December 30, AD 2012

cracked crystal ball

 

Well, it is time for me to boldly go where angels fear to tread and make my predictions for 2013.

1.  No new gun control legislation-Whenever either party wins a presidential victory for a second term, they begin feeling their oats and tend to overestimate both their popularity and their power.  The Democrats are in that condition now, and I predict that the beginning of the path to what I anticipate will be a bad election year for Democrats in 2014 will be a bitter, and failed, attempt to pass new gun control legislation.

2.  Recession-The Economy will slip back into a recession with the unemployment rate rising above nine percent by the end of the year.

3.  Kerry seat-John Kerry will be confirmed as Secretary of State, God help us, and Scott Brown, the pinch hitter of the Senate, will win the special election for his seat in icy blue Massachusetts.

4.  Virginia and New Jersey-The Republicans will retain the governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia.

5.  Contraceptive Mandate-The contraceptive mandate will be ruled to be unconstituional on First Amendment religious freedom grounds.  Go here to the Becket Fund, which has been waging the court fights across the country in regard to the mandate, for the decision of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals which begins  setting the ground for ultimate Supreme Court review in 2014.

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14 Responses to Predictions 2013

  • What about Europe?
    I think that Greece will leave the euro. And Spain?

    South America?
    Everything is suspicious, but I think that Chavez will die. Argentina will continue in financial trouble and Brazil will be worse.

    Japan? Recession as usual, and tensions with China, as usual also.

    China? Who knows.

    And, of course, Pedro will be wrong.

  • China could be quite interesting Pedro. The Chinese have been risking war with Japan and the US over the Japanese Senkaku islands. I suspect this is largely for domestic purposes as the Chinese Communist party is confronted with an ailing economy and has zip ideas how to deal with it.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2012/10/16/china-cant-hide-the-recession-any-longer/

    A Sino-American clash, something else to worry about in 2013, although I view it as unlikely.

  • I have hope that SSPX will accept B16’s compromise and reunite with the Church in 2013.

    I foresee a half-hearted and ham-fisted immigration reform bill becoming law.

    I expect a Supreme Court Justice to retire. God help us!

  • I predict 365 days of “Friday the Thirteenth.”

    I just finished reading WSJ Weekend edition “Review” regular Joe Queenan’s puff piece on “idiocy” in 2012. He missed the biggest idiocy of 2012: re-electing the worst president in history.

  • 8. Syria-The Syrian regime will be unseated and that will send shock waves throughout the Middle East. The Syrian state was the classic Arab one party dictatorship kept in power through a completely loyal military with no compunction about drowning any revolt in a sea of blood. When it falls look for uprisings throughout the Middle East. The prime prop of the Syrian regime, Iran, might well have a violent revolt that will make Syria look tame by comparison.

    Dunno. The closest analogues to the ‘classic Arab one party dictatorship’ in the Near East and adjacent areas would be the Muslim post-Soviet republics (bar Kyrgyzstan); however, the political life in these states appears to be influenced by a different set of currents than those in the rest of the Near East. Syria is quite atypical of the Near East nowadays. Nearly every other state the region is much more pluralistic (the Saudi monarchy being an exception) and only the military regime in the Sudan is sanguinary enough to be in the same category as the Assad crew. The Assad regime is not only a praetorian party-state but also the manifestation of the political subjection of the Syrian majority by the Alawite minority. Only the Tikriti/Ba’ath regime in Iraq (among all post-war regimes) had this characteristic.

    My wager about Iran would be that the duration and level of violence would resemble more the fall of Mubarak in Egypt. Just my $0.02.

  • Really, Donald?

    The Cubs not winning the World Series? That’s not a prediction, that’s fate. It’s like my newborn waking up at 2 am and 4 am…like clockwork.

    –Jonathan

  • That is completely accurate Jonathan!

  • My prediction: one of the many many Obama scandals will begin to stick.

  • “My prediction: one of the many many Obama scandals will begin to stick.”

    Probably. After a President is re-elected people begin to understand, even his partisans, that he is basically in the rear view mirror as far as future elections go, and there tends to be much less of a “protecting the quarterback” attitude, one of several reasons why most Presidential second terms tend to be a mess.

  • Predictions:
    Something else will go wrong with my house.
    I will feel extremely sad when my first child starts kindergarten.
    Work will annoy me.

  • Argentina will continue in financial trouble

    That’s not so much a prediction as an observation.

  • My bets –

    The fall of Assad is inevitable. I think that most of the region expects it, though. The shock waves will be minimal outside Lebanon and Turkey. Turkey could get really ugly. They’re experiencing their own demographic nightmare, as the secular, slightly-more-European population is getting outpaced by the crazies. If Syria falls, the Kurds will push hard for their own state, and Turkey may well respond with that special hospitality that they roll out for ethnic minorities.

    Obama tell-all books? Interesting. I hadn’t thought about that. One thing that’s surprised me is the level of control that the Clintons have over the press. I thought they’d lost it 1998, but they’ve done amazing work rehabilitating Bill’s image, and criticism of Hillary is still unallowed. So I don’t see an anti-Obama backlash being permitted until those two give it the go-ahead.

    I’m not sure if Mrs. Clinton will run in 2016. But the Democratic Party is going to have to be very careful over the next four years. I’m hoping that they trip up badly and have their party break out into the race war that they’ve been encouraging the rest of us to have for the past 4 / 50 / 150 / 224 years.

  • The problem with Obama Donald is not that he overestimates his popularity. Obamcare is proof that he is willing to ram a major piece of crap (I mean legislation) down the throats of the American people regardless of how unpopular it is.

    Here’s another presdiction, Obama will continue to bully the repulican leadership and the republicans will continue to not fight back.

  • Glad to see you could be right in ALL your predictions including number 11 (because if you’re right about the first ten, you’ll be wrong on 11, which is what you successfully predicted).

Predictions of Times Past

Friday, December 28, AD 2012

 

 

Well, each year I make predictions for the coming year and the following year I eat some crow.  Here beginneth the crow eating:

 

1.  The GOP will retain the House in the 2012 elections.  Both parties in the House assume that is going to happen, as nine Democrats, most of them  veteran members, are retiring, to zip for the GOP.

The GOP did retain the House.  Would that all my predictions had been as accurate.

2.  The GOP will gain the Senate.   21 Democrats, 10 Republican and 2 Independent seats are up, and the GOP only needs to flip 4, or 3 if they win the White House.  I see the GOP flipping Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska and North Dakota, with possibles in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia.  I see the Democrats flipping Massachusetts with a possible in Nevada.

Nope the Republicans actually managed to lose 2 seats with the Senate now 53-45 with 2 independents.

3.  Despite a lacklustre group of candidates I do believe that the GOP will gain the White House.  The economy is simply too dismal for this election to be anything except a referendum on Obama’s stewardship of the economy, and I do not think that all the campaign money and friendly media in the world can transform this particular pig’s ear into a silk purse.  Jay Cost, one of the best political analysts extant, has a good article here detailing the odds against Obama.  Heaven knows that missteps by the GOP could help Obama a great deal, but at the end I think there are just too many people who believe the country is on the wrong track for Obama to win.

Alas no.  Obama ran a base election and Romney never succeeded in firing up the Republican base and just barely managed to get more votes than McCain in 2008.  Obama was off several million from his vote total in 2008 and a competent Republican campaign should have defeated him.

4.  A repeat from last year:  either North Korea or Iran will go through a violent revolution that will topple one of the regimes in 2012.

Nope, both regimes are still hanging on, although I would not be surprised to see one or both go the way of Syria eventually.  With nuclear weaponry in North Korea, and soon to come in Iran, that would make for interesting times for the entire planet.

5.  A major terrorist incident will occur in the United States during the coming year as the jihadists attempt some payback for Osama, and as the factions among the terrorists jockey for power.

No, the major terrorist incident occurred in Libya instead on the anniversary of 9-11.  The American people, shamefully, largely yawned.

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6 Responses to Predictions of Times Past

  • Mac,

    You did a lot better than I.

  • “Alas no. Obama ran a base election and Romney never succeeded in firing up the Republican base and just barely managed to get more votes than McCain in 2008. Obama was off several million from his vote total in 2008 and a competent Republican campaign should have defeated him.”

    I have never bought into the opinion that prevails amongst the GOP consultant commentariat that we need to pander to the blessed undecideds to win. I believe turning out the base is what wins elections. To be sure, independents are essentail, but what independent undecided voter is gonna be convinced by a candidate that can’t fire up his own base?

  • “8. The World will not end and purveyors of the Mayan doomsday prophecy will have to find a new sting to milk money out of yokels.

    Right! That one took an awesome amount of prophetic insight!”

    Although I remain hopeful, I do worry sometimes that man will screw things up so badly we might wished the world did end. As far as milking money out of yokels, that won’t be too hard. It never is.

  • “I will take that crow rolled in flour and egg wash and deep-fried please!”

    Try roasted instead. Otherwise I predict you will make a visit to a cardiologist next year. 🙂

  • My failed prediction was on this site. I said a head or two will roll for Benghazi and that’s it. That fire will out with less of a whimper than I thought. No one loses their job. As I thought, dear leader and assistant to the dear leader are safe. All the hand wringing for nothing.
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/12/26/No-One-Loses-Job-Over-Benghazi-Security-Lapses

    Would be interested in seeing predictions on Hobby Lobby’s battle. Freedom fighters and risk takers.
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/12/28/Hobby-Lobby-Defies-Obama-Administration-with-Civil-Disobedience-for-Religious-Liberty

  • “I agree with all these predictions except #3. I unfortunately believe Obama will pull off a win based mainly on independent voters, even though they do believe the country is on the wrong track, ultimately deciding to go with the devil they know in preference to the devil they don’t know, particularly if the devil they don’t know is one of those awful, looney right wingers (as portrayed by the media).”

    Sounds like I was right, though maybe not for this precise reason.

    “11. A persistent La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific will mean yet another year of wild weather including tornado outbreaks, flooding and continued drought in the southern Plains. This means more billion-dollar weather disasters (though hopefully, not nearly as many deaths), more frantic scrambling for FEMA funding, and also….

    “12. Even more hysterical insistence by AGW advocates that global warming/climate change is to blame, never mind the continued real scientific evidence against it.”

    I was off somewhat on #11 — this was not the year for tornadoes (outside of two early spring outbreaks and a Christmas Day (!) outbreak in the Deep South) or floods, but for drought and for Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone/Superstorm Sandy. Even so, #12 was pretty much a no-brainer.

NFL Power Rankings

Wednesday, September 7, AD 2011

Real football is finally slated to begin tomorrow night with the meeting of the previous two Super Bowl champions.  Instead of doing a division-by-division breakdown, I’m simply going to list the teams in order from 1-32.  This is simply my list as we’re not repeating our efforts last year at TAC to do a weekly power ranking poll.  I might revisit the list during the mid-season, but for now this is how I see the season playing out.  As is done with fantasy rankings, I’m breaking the teams out into tiers.

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15 Responses to NFL Power Rankings

  • You may well be right about my #16 Bears, but I’m not so sure. After splitting the regular season (including a very close season ending loss in a game that was key for the Pack and meaningless for the Bears), the Bears lost to your #1 Packers by a touchdown in the NFC Championship last year — an outcome more comparable to your #2 Steelers in the Super Bowl than your #10 Falcons. And Cutler played great last year behind an offensive line that was the consensus worst, by far, in the NFL. God knows what he might be able to do if he had Rodgers line. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not convinced the Bears belong in Tier One, but Tier Three — I don’t think so. If the Bears do not fix their O-Line they will likely perform no better than last year, but if the O-Line improves there is no reason to believe that they can’t be in the thick of things.

  • What is this futbol of which you speak? 🙂

  • Longtime Steelers fan here…..they have an old defense and a mediocre at best secondary that Aaron Rodgers shredded in the Super Bowl. Rodgers was throwing deep passes over the middle, his receivers were getting open…and dropping the ball. 31-26 was a fluke. It could have been worse.

    Pittsburgh has not gotten any younger on defense.

    As for the Pack, great team, the coach is a good Catholic from the Greenfield neighborhood in Pittsburgh, but nobody repeats as Super Bowl champs any more. There will be a hangover of sorts, sometime during the season, and they will slip.

  • Good points about the Steelers, but I still think they’re still a notch above the rest of the AFC. I don’t think the Jets have enough firepower to knock them off, the Chargers will choke, and the Pats are not as impressive as people think. I hope I’m wrong – well, only about the Jets not having enough firepower to overtake them.

    As for Da Bears, I see what Mike is saying, but if we’re going by single games they are a team that lost at home . . . to the Redskins.

    But this is all speculation. That’s why they play the games. And as my less than stellar MLB predictions show, I probably will get most of these wrong.

  • Chargers ranked too high; always slow out of the gate. Great fantasy team, but with Norv Turner at the helm they’ll never get the the SB.

    Jets overvalued once again. Rex Ryan talks big but with an inconsistent and still green Sanchez taking snaps, look for 9-7 at best and maybe out of the playoffs.

    Pats and Steelers each will win divisions as usual and go deep. Of course, the Pack are solid faves to repeat and, as a WIsconsinite, they’re my pick to go all the way.

    As for the rest: YAWN.

  • As to my Lions, I’m in Fox Mulder mode now: I want to believe.

    While the point about Matthew Stafford and his Magical Mystery Shoulders is a good one, the offense percolated reasonably well under Shaun Hill. In fact, the Lions won two of the four games in their season-ending winning streak under the field leadership of the legendary Drew Stanton. Why? Because their running game finally came to life.

    The guys to watch on the Lions offense are RBs Jahvid Best and Maurice Morris/Jerome Harrison (they also picked up an RB on the waiver wire from the ‘Skins, but I know bupkis about him). If they can rack up, say, sixteen hundred yards between them, the Lions can contend for the wild card.

    They can, but it’s about 40-60 that they will. Best is a Reggie Bush-style runner, not a load carrier. Morris and Harrison are the high-carry backs, and the best one can say about their respective careers is that each has a good work ethic and isn’t afraid to try to move the pile.

    If rookie Mikel Leshoure hadn’t blown his achilles during the second practice, I’d flip the odds.

    Sooo…I’d probably have them at 18 or 19. The national consensus tabbing them as a “Surprise Pick/Team of the Future” makes me queasy.

  • Dale, sorry to rain on your parade but the fragile Stafford will go down by game 3. Calvin Johnson and not much else. 3rd place would be a step up.

  • Joe:

    No, no, no. I won’t deny a strong likelihood of a Stafford injury (which is inexplicable given his clean bill of health prior to the pros). The offense is much, much better than that. Johnson is obviously a god among men, but he’d be that on any team. Pettigrew is a top-flight tight end, Burleson is a genuine NFL No. 2, and their O-line is good if not great with (finally!) some capable depth players.

    Also, you’re ignoring the defense, which will be better yet with a much-improved linebacker corps. The front seven will be formidable. Overall, the D will keep them in more games.

  • The key thing about the 2010 season was that the NFC West was historically bad. So the teams I think you overate are the ones who played a lot of games against that division: Saints, Chargers and Rams. Though you are rightfully skeptical of the bucs and falcons.

    Other than that is the usual anti-Philly Zummo bias with regard to the Eagles. (For the record I’m a Bears fan.)

  • Other than that is the usual anti-Philly Zummo bias with regard to the Eagles.

    Guilty as charged.

    Of course, just because I’m biased doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

  • With game 1 in the books, it looks like you’re on target with the Packers. The offense looked … unbeatable.

    Of course, the Saints defense picked right where it left off last season. And it that continues, I don’t care how many points Brees and Co. put up, New Orleans won’t smell the playoffs. 🙁

    P.S. – “In a league that so often touts parody …”. Actually, with Chad Ochocinco in the league, that’s probably true.

  • The Packers won a shootout, and their run defense was solid. Intimidated the Saints into passing on 4th and 1 in the red zone, which is something. But Brees picked their secondary to pieces–410 yards and three touchdowns. Sure, it’s Brees–he’s hard to stop. Still, they’re going to have to find a way to stop a good passing game at some point.

  • And it you’re not biased against the Eagles this year, you either live in their blackout zone, aren’t paying attention or happen to be as nutty as Al Davis. I’m a bit tired of their hype machine myself.

  • Green Bay’s offense sorta sputtered in the second half though. One of their two TD’s was a 108 yd KO return (featuring an incredible acrobatic barrel roll). After rolling up 28 first half points, I expected more of a blow-out.

    Despite their 2nd half lack of production, Green Bay is still formidable. Having a healthy Ryan Grant will make Rodgers even better.

    New Orleans blew it with the 4th and 1 – I would’ve taken the 3 points, if it were me. Go for the sure points on the road. And the extra play at the end? What in the world made them think they would be able to run it up the gut? I would’ve called a play-action with a pass into the flat to Sproles (who would outrun anyone on GB’s defense to the corner) or their tight end. For a minute there, I thought I was watching the Lions’ offense.

    Speaking of which – good call, Dale, on the Fox Mulder reference. I’m closer to investing time in watching them this season, but with the Tigers closing in on a division title, I’ll be paying closer attention to them seeing that they’ll have at least one playoff series.

    And then there’s the Red Wings…

  • Larry:

    Yeah, the Tigers are absorbing my attention, too, but there isn’t much overlap between the NFL schedule and the MLB. While I’m not exactly recommending a three hour investment in the Lions every Sunday (got too burned by that during the Millen-ium), I’m closer than I have been in years. They longer constitute child abuse for my eldest son to watch.

Predictions of Things Past

Wednesday, December 29, AD 2010

The end of the year signals that it is time for me to make predictions for next year, something I will do later this week.  However, first we will have a look at my predictions for last year:

1.   The Republicans will take back the House in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.

Well, that was certainly on the money!

2.   The Republicans will take back the Senate in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.  I am assuming that Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans if the Republicans have 50 seats.

Nope, although the Republicans came close with 47 seats, representing a total gain for the year of seven seats for the Republicans which was a good, solid performance in a year when the contested seats up were mainly in states that had gone Democrat in 2008.

3.   The economy will continue in the doldrums next year with the unemployment rate not getting lower than 9%.

Unfortunately this prediction was entirely accurate.  The unemployment rate is currently 9.3% for the nation and never got below 9%.  Go here to view a graph.

4.    Regime change will occur in Iran with the Mullahs being toppled by a popular insurrection.

Sadly no, although the mismanagement of the economy of Iran might yet eventually topple the regime.

5.    Pope Benedict’s Anglican Initiative will prove amazingly successful  with ever increasing numbers of Anglicans and Episcopalians swimming the Tiber to participate.

True!  The mass announcement of Five Anglican bishops in November that they were converting to Rome merely being the tip of a large movement.

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One Response to Predictions of Things Past

  • It’s always interesting to look back on past predictions, isn’t it?

    I was convinced that Janet Napolitano would fulfill prediction #6 by resigning after the Detroit airplane bombing fiasco LAST Christmas. She didn’t, instead going on to prevent future underwear bombings by making EVERYONE undergo virtual or actual strip searches at airports. How on earth she manages to hang on to her job is beyond me.

    Two other predictions I added were: another successful or attempted terrorist attack within the U.S. (the attempted Times Square car bombing would count as an attempt; there were other attempts that were actually part of FBI sting operations, which I wouldn’t count) and at least one Catholic pro-abort politician being banned from Communion by his or her bishop (hasn’t happened yet, but I suspect some bishops may be getting close to pulling the trigger).

Predictions

Monday, November 2, AD 2009

fishing for votes

For political junkies like me, tomorrow begins the political season for 2010 with gubernatorial elections in Virginia, New Jersey and the special congressional election in New York 23.    There is also a special congressional election in California 10, but that is in the San Francisco metro area and everyone, except for the Republican running, David Harmer,  believes that is going to be won by the Democrat, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, and I join in that consensus, although I suspect it might be surprisingly close.

In regard to the three competitive races, here are my predictions:

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16 Responses to Predictions

  • I think McDonnell will certainly win in VA, and I’ll bet Hoffman does too, but NJ I am not so sure about. They sure seem to love incompetent state government there. I wouldn’t be shocked if Corzine manages to win by a hair. But even that would be good news for conservatives. NJ is a deep blue state. The very fact that Corzine had to struggle and The One had to go there and campaign for him is a bad omen for the Dems.

  • I’m with Donna V., but probably more confident that Christie will pull it off. Our Dear Leader may have overstated his (manufactured) gravitas and used up whatever charismatic potion he had for a Corzine push.

    As Mister Rogers would say…

    It’s a wonderful in the neighborhood, it’s…

  • I live in New York, work in New Jersey and I sure hope you are on the money.

  • For what it’s worth, Intrade gives Hoffman about a 65% chance of winning, and McDonnell a 98% chance. New Jersey is split roughly 50/50, but with a slight edge to Corzine.

  • McDonnell is a lock, and that 57-43 split sounds about right. I think Hoffman also pulls it out, probably in a bit of a squeaker. I am not sure about NJ, but I have a sinking feeling Corzine pulls it out.

  • Ditto Paul Zummo’s prediction…

  • I’ll join the chorus, pretty solid except for NJ, that one is too close to call as far as I can tell.

  • Concur with the consensus. McDonnell will win easily. Hoffman will win fairly easily. Christie will win on election day, but it will be close enough that the Dem’s will Franken the results. To Franken the results means to keep counting (magically finding Dem votes) until you get the results you want.

  • To Franken the results means to keep counting (magically finding Dem votes) until you get the results you want.

    How does Franken (v.) differ from Gore (v.)?

  • Edward G. Robinson explains Democrat recount strategy!

  • Rich:

    When you Franken the vote, you win. When you Gore the vote, you lose and then spend the rest of your life saying “I wuz robbed!”

  • McDonnell 55%, Deeds 43%

    Corzine 43%, Christie 42%, Daggett 11% (won’t be decided until at least sometime Wednesday)

    Owens 48%, Hoffman 46%, Scozzafava 4% (NY-23 isn’t THAT conservative and I would think voters there would realize that)

    These off-year elections are very tough to predict because turnout is usually low. It’s often less about how well you win over the independents and undecideds than how good a job you do of making sure your base gets to the polls. McDonnell will win VA in a landslide, but the other two are tossups.

  • Owens 48%, Hoffman 46%, Scozzafava 4% (NY-23 isn’t THAT conservative and I would think voters there would realize that)

    ??? I think the voters there know how conservative they are or are not. They haven’t elected a democrat since 1870, it seems the latest poll indicates they aren’t starting this year either.

  • Republicans will win. Not much will change.

  • Apparently they are not that conservative and they have elected a Democrat.

  • Two out of three, not bad Donald =)