Well, it is time for me to boldly go where angels fear to tread and make my predictions for 2013.
1. No new gun control legislation-Whenever either party wins a presidential victory for a second term, they begin feeling their oats and tend to overestimate both their popularity and their power. The Democrats are in that condition now, and I predict that the beginning of the path to what I anticipate will be a bad election year for Democrats in 2014 will be a bitter, and failed, attempt to pass new gun control legislation.
2. Recession-The Economy will slip back into a recession with the unemployment rate rising above nine percent by the end of the year.
3. Kerry seat-John Kerry will be confirmed as Secretary of State, God help us, and Scott Brown, the pinch hitter of the Senate, will win the special election for his seat in icy blue Massachusetts.
4. Virginia and New Jersey-The Republicans will retain the governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia.
5. Contraceptive Mandate-The contraceptive mandate will be ruled to be unconstituional on First Amendment religious freedom grounds. Go here to the Becket Fund, which has been waging the court fights across the country in regard to the mandate, for the decision of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals which begins setting the ground for ultimate Supreme Court review in 2014. Continue reading
Well, each year I make predictions for the coming year and the following year I eat some crow. Here beginneth the crow eating:
1. The GOP will retain the House in the 2012 elections. Both parties in the House assume that is going to happen, as nine Democrats, most of them veteran members, are retiring, to zip for the GOP.
The GOP did retain the House. Would that all my predictions had been as accurate.
2. The GOP will gain the Senate. 21 Democrats, 10 Republican and 2 Independent seats are up, and the GOP only needs to flip 4, or 3 if they win the White House. I see the GOP flipping Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska and North Dakota, with possibles in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. I see the Democrats flipping Massachusetts with a possible in Nevada.
Nope the Republicans actually managed to lose 2 seats with the Senate now 53-45 with 2 independents.
3. Despite a lacklustre group of candidates I do believe that the GOP will gain the White House. The economy is simply too dismal for this election to be anything except a referendum on Obama’s stewardship of the economy, and I do not think that all the campaign money and friendly media in the world can transform this particular pig’s ear into a silk purse. Jay Cost, one of the best political analysts extant, has a good article here detailing the odds against Obama. Heaven knows that missteps by the GOP could help Obama a great deal, but at the end I think there are just too many people who believe the country is on the wrong track for Obama to win.
Alas no. Obama ran a base election and Romney never succeeded in firing up the Republican base and just barely managed to get more votes than McCain in 2008. Obama was off several million from his vote total in 2008 and a competent Republican campaign should have defeated him.
4. A repeat from last year: either North Korea or Iran will go through a violent revolution that will topple one of the regimes in 2012.
Nope, both regimes are still hanging on, although I would not be surprised to see one or both go the way of Syria eventually. With nuclear weaponry in North Korea, and soon to come in Iran, that would make for interesting times for the entire planet.
5. A major terrorist incident will occur in the United States during the coming year as the jihadists attempt some payback for Osama, and as the factions among the terrorists jockey for power.
No, the major terrorist incident occurred in Libya instead on the anniversary of 9-11. The American people, shamefully, largely yawned. Continue reading
Real football is finally slated to begin tomorrow night with the meeting of the previous two Super Bowl champions. Instead of doing a division-by-division breakdown, I’m simply going to list the teams in order from 1-32. This is simply my list as we’re not repeating our efforts last year at TAC to do a weekly power ranking poll. I might revisit the list during the mid-season, but for now this is how I see the season playing out. As is done with fantasy rankings, I’m breaking the teams out into tiers. Continue reading
The end of the year signals that it is time for me to make predictions for next year, something I will do later this week. However, first we will have a look at my predictions for last year:
1. The Republicans will take back the House in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.
Well, that was certainly on the money!
2. The Republicans will take back the Senate in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011. I am assuming that Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans if the Republicans have 50 seats.
Nope, although the Republicans came close with 47 seats, representing a total gain for the year of seven seats for the Republicans which was a good, solid performance in a year when the contested seats up were mainly in states that had gone Democrat in 2008.
3. The economy will continue in the doldrums next year with the unemployment rate not getting lower than 9%.
Unfortunately this prediction was entirely accurate. The unemployment rate is currently 9.3% for the nation and never got below 9%. Go here to view a graph.
4. Regime change will occur in Iran with the Mullahs being toppled by a popular insurrection.
Sadly no, although the mismanagement of the economy of Iran might yet eventually topple the regime.
5. Pope Benedict’s Anglican Initiative will prove amazingly successful with ever increasing numbers of Anglicans and Episcopalians swimming the Tiber to participate.
For political junkies like me, tomorrow begins the political season for 2010 with gubernatorial elections in Virginia, New Jersey and the special congressional election in New York 23. There is also a special congressional election in California 10, but that is in the San Francisco metro area and everyone, except for the Republican running, David Harmer, believes that is going to be won by the Democrat, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, and I join in that consensus, although I suspect it might be surprisingly close.
In regard to the three competitive races, here are my predictions: