Remembrance of Predictions Past 2011

Tuesday, December 27, AD 2011

 

Well, as the end of the year looms, it is time for me to review the predictions for the year 2011 that I made at the end of 2010.  Predictions for 2012 will be forthcoming after I eat some crow here:

 

1.  The global warming scam/sham will continue to unravel.  I only hope we recall this episode the next time elites around the globe use junk science as an excuse in order to attempt to remake civilization.

True.  We had the second release of e-mails on climate gate.  Canada withdrew from the Kyoto accords and almost all other nations appear to be ignoring them.  The UN Climate Conference which recently concluded put off doing anything to reduce carbon levels until 2020.

2.  The Republicans in the House will put a halt to Obama’s legislative agenda, and Obama will veto most bills originating in the House that make it to his desk.

Yes and No.  The House Republicans have put a stop to Obama’s legislative agenda, but they have not been able to get any of their own agenda through the Senate.

3.  There will be considerable friction between the GOP in the House and the Republican Rinos in the Senate.

Yes, and you can triple underline that prediction!

4.  The economy will begin to improve with unemployment ending the year around 7.5%.

Perhaps a very slight improvement, but unemployment is still at a ghastly 8.6%.

5.  Either the North Korean or the Iranian government will be toppled in a violent overthrow.

Not yet, but the signs are not good for either regime.  In the spring Iraq weathered a bout of huge protest marches and riots.  Now, Iran is undergoing constant huge explosions and sabotage.  Who is behind this?  Israel, the US, internal opposition, all of the above?  No one knows, but the inability of the Iranian regime to put a stop to it is a hot topic of conversation throughout Iran.

In regard to North Korea the latest Fearless Leader has bitten the dust, and his son, Fearless Leader III, is apparently not completely in control yet.  North Korea could blow at any time, or it could remain a Stalin museum peace for decades.  One safe prediction is that when it falls, it will be swift and bloody:  think Ceaucescu in Romania in 1989.  The problem for us with that analogy is that Ceaucescu, unlike the Stalinists in charge in North Korea, did not have nuclear weapons at his beck and call.  I hope the South Koreans have been attempting to bribe the relevant North Korean generals to act to keep the powers that be in North Korea from taking Seoul with them when they go.

6.  Republican controlled legislative chambers around the country will pass pro-life bills, continuing the process of chipping away at Roe.

True.  Go here for a rundown on some of the legislation.

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5 Responses to Remembrance of Predictions Past 2011

  • 1. When you’re looking to validate your own predictions, you’re more conscious of confirming data than contradictory data. One of the biggest climate change stories of the year was Richard Muller’s attempt to correct for pro-CC bias and subsequent discovery that the advertised conclusions were still fairly close.

    5. Highly doubtful that Seoul has any contact with high level DPRK officials. North Korea should never have been allowed to obtain nukes. Now there’s no going back. The best case scenario is China-style market liberalization of a totalitarian nuclear state.

    6. The biggest abortion law story of the year was the defeat of the personhood amendment in Mississippi.

    11. I think this year proved that Europe will hang on to the Euro at all costs. You’ll get quantitative easing before any talk of the Euro’s demise.

  • 4. Real unemployment, restore innumerable victims of Obama policies to the denominator, is north of 12%. The underemployment rate is about 20%.

    10. If there were justice, Holder would be in prison. “Without justice, government is mass brigandage.” St. Augustine.

    11. The euro will exist. But, it’ll take 100 of ’em for a litre of bier. That is economic tragedy!

    FYI: The US taxpayer is indirectly (the Fed) “on the hook”, i.e., at risk for at least $81 billion in euro/dollar swaps paid by the Fed. It could easily run to hundreds of billions if Bernanke and Obama are not stopped.

    Two weeks ago they pulled off the “Long-Term Refinancing Operation” wherein 523 broke banks borrowed (low cost, three years) $640 billion from the European Central Bank to cover deposit runs. The 523 banks posted collateral basically worthless PIIGS sovereign debt securities as collateral. Kicked that can three years down the road. It does nothng to solve the problems.

    1. There will never again be a significant snowfall in the NYC Metro area. That has nothing to do with climate change. It’s because our sons combined their money and bought us a snow blower – six forward, two reverse gears- fancier than my ride. I said they could have saved hundreds of dollars and bought Mother a new snow shovel.

    Also, the ideologues’ research is aimed at supporting the chimera that CC is man-affected so man can be controlled and forced to live like slaves. Their research supports what they believe will achieve their ideology: saddle man with (high fuel and food prices) so they can take away his liberty and property.

    College profs and scientists have been taught what to believe: ideology, not how to think. Their research is aimed at supporting the cause not finding the truth.

  • RR-
    Richard Muller’s shtick isn’t exactly conflict-free– his co-author is calling shenanigans, and seems rather…peeved that he pushed misleading information into the papers before the study was even peer reviewed. Seems the press releases just happened to come out while anyone who would nay-say was under confidentiality agreements.

  • Seems to me that the more legitimate doubts are raised about global warming/climate change, the more hysterically pushy the pro-climate change crowd gets:

    http://www.grist.org/climate-skeptics/2011-12-16-new-approach-to-climate-deniers-launch-them-into-space

Predictions for 2011

Thursday, December 30, AD 2010

Once again I boldly charge in where angels wisely fear to tread, and make predictions for 2011:

1.  The global warming scam/sham will continue to unravel.  I only hope we recall this episode the next time elites around the globe use junk science as an excuse in order to attempt to remake civilization.

2.  The Republicans in the House will put a halt to Obama’s legislative agenda, and Obama will veto most bills originating in the House that make it to his desk. 

3.  There will be considerable friction between the GOP in the House and the Republican Rinos in the Senate.

4.  The economy will begin to improve with unemployment ending the year around 7.5%.

5.  Either the North Korean or the Iranian government will be toppled in a violent overthrow.

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14 Responses to Predictions for 2011

  • I think interest in the Civil War will only increase in the South. Unfortunately, our nations most tragic war seems to be little more than a footnote to everyone else.

  • “At least three cabinet members of the Obama administration will resign”

    And THIS time one of them had better be Janet Napolitano!

  • Here are my (somewhat) safe predictions for 2011:

    · Middle East peace talks will resume for the 987th time since Esau and Jacob had a spat 3,000 years ago.

    · The U.S. will borrow another trillion dollars from China to pay for pork projects.

    · Brett Favre will announce his retirement but leave the window open for another comeback by uttering the words, “never say never.”

    · President Obama will go on at least four more vacations and will be photographed eating an ice cream cone while First Lady Michelle Obama will be shown teaching kids about the importance of good nutrition.

    · Sarah Palin won’t go away and will be photographed killing something and smiling while skinning it.

    · Neither will Lindsay Lohan, Charlie Sheen, Angelina Jolie/Brad Pitt and lots of other celebrities, some of whom will have unflattering mug shots taken at police stations.

    · Newly installed House Speak John Boehner will cry at least once in public, probably because he can’t get any bills passed.

    · Nancy Pelosi will get more botox.

    · Harry Reid will continue to stumble over every sentence in press conferences.

    · Vladimir Putin will take up hang gliding.

    · Gas prices will go up, along with everything else except paychecks (unless you work on Wall Street).

    · Someone famous will be embarrassed by a sex scandal.

    · Speaking of which, Tiger Woods will continue to struggle with his golf game and swear on TV.

    · At least one more big newspaper will fold (hopefully The New York Times).

    · WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will be convicted of something, but still make several million dollars selling books and making speeches.

    · There will be more earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc., and dire predictions of more global warming or a new ice age. Al Gore will appear at least once on “Meet The Press.”

    · New discoveries of animal life will include a lime colored creature with six legs and three eyes living in jungles of New Guinea who only comes out of his underground home between 2 and 3 every Friday morning.

    · Multi-billionaire Facebook founder and Time magazine 2010 Person of the Year Mark Zuckerberg will buy California.

    · New York City will ban pork rinds and Twinkies.

    · Manny Ramirez, who will make $20 million playing baseball, will refuse to run to first base, but someone will say “that’s just Manny being Manny.”

    · LeBron James will take an hour on TV to explain why he didn’t win an NBA championship.

    · Great Britain will be on the verge of bankruptcy, but somehow manage to come up with $60 million to spend on Prince William and Kate Middleton’s royal wedding.

    · CBS News anchor Katie Couric, who makes $15 million a year reading a TelePrompTer, will agree to cut out fancy lunches in an effort to save her network money.

    · At least one of the following will appear on “Dancing with the Stars”: Arnold Schwartzenegger, Rod Blagojevich, Brett Favre, Jim Doyle.

  • I believe that the Holy Father had some words to say about the future that have been very much overlooked by the culture at large:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/RealCatholicTV?feature=mhum#p/a/u/0/ndWBbrLc4rM

  • 13. Jimmeh Carter will praise Obama for succeeding him as THE worst POTUS in American History.

  • 1. See also: the fat/cholesterol/statin scam and the globalism/free-trade scam. Maybe it’s just the circles I run in, but I saw a marked increase in 2010 in people wanting to buy local and/or grow their own food and make their own goods, and in general be more self-sufficient and take charge of their own lives again. That’ll continue.

    2. I’d like to think Republicans will cause gridlock, but I’m wary of them “growing in office” as too many of the 1994 inductees did. If they couldn’t stay strong against a scandal-plagued Clinton, will they against Obama? We’ll see.

    4. Depends on how much money they print. A couple trillion dumped on the streets could create enough consumer spending to bring down unemployment. It’s only temporary, borrowing from the future to ‘create’ jobs now, but it’s worked more-or-less for 50 years; they might be able to put off the reckoning another year. The question is whether it’s even possible to borrow/print enough at this point without bringing down the house of cards.

    Personally, my prediction would be that they’ll roll out a couple more sub-trillion stimulus deals, which will be just enough to generate some supposed positive signs of recovery, but most of it will still go to pay off debt, so unemployment will stick around 10% (with real U6 unemployment nearer 20%).

    7. I think it’s very unlikely that liberals could ever openly oppose our first black president, whatever he does overseas. That’s just hard-wired. Sure, there might be a few “stalwarts,” as you say. I remember a handful of Hollywood liberals protesting Clinton’s bombings in Serbia by dressing up in body bags, but “the Left” as a group was fine with it and the mainstream press ignored them. There’s a small minority that’s consistently peacenik, but most liberals are only anti-war when it’s not their guy calling the shots.

    11. That’d be a big one, almost the equivalent of solvent US states (if there are any) deciding their citizens don’t want to bail out bankrupt states like California and Illinois. China has been moving some reserves from dollars to Euros over the last decade, and if it weren’t for the uncertainty in the EU, they might have already stopped buying dollars. We Americans are fortunate that, as deep a hole as we’ve dug ourselves with our debt-based economy, most others in the West are as bad or worse.

  • My bet – neither Iran nor North Korea will experience a violent overthrow.

    Iran will be increasingly well-off. Europe will figure out that they really like heating oil, and don’t particularly mind anti-Semitism. The sanctions will fall by the wayside, maybe after an insincere act of contrition by Iran. The society will liberalize (at a snail’s pace) as the religious leaders lose influence, but the religious leaders will still control the government, and they’re not going anywhere.

    North Korea, on the other hand, will get a *lot* worse. The last of the food will run out, there will be mass desertions, and the country will fall into chaos. China will continue to prop up the regime and pretend that everything is fine, but they’ll be flooded with refugees and universally condemned. It’ll be their first excoriation as a superpower, and they won’t like it.

    Here’s hoping I’m wrong.

  • “13. Jimmeh Carter will praise Obama for succeeding him as THE worst POTUS in U.S. history”

    14. James Buchanan will send a message from the beyond thanking Obama for replacing HIM as a serious contender for the title of Worst POTUS Ever 🙂

  • A good Irishman makes predictions only after the event.

  • “At least one of the following will appear on “Dancing with the Stars”: Arnold Schwartzenegger, Rod Blagojevich, Brett Favre, Jim Doyle.”

    At least one of the above will also host Saturday Night Live or appear as himself during Weekend Update or another sketch. However, given that Blago’s retrial starts in April he better move fast.

  • You left out:

    The Catholic Church will formally be acquired by the Republican Party as a junior partner and will agree to repeat as revealed divineky revealed truth any utterances from Palin and Beck (two ex-Catholics) and Ailes and Gingrinch (coverts to Catholicism). These people are clearly the voice of Jesus.

  • Why do you say that Germany is propping up Ireland. That’s the media view. In fact the Irish government, for secret reasons they refuse to reveal, agreed to pay the debts of Ireland’s privately owned baks to European banks (mainly German). Should the Irish government not pay these debts the German banks would be in danger of collapse and the Euro plunge,, perhaps into oblivion.

    In fact the taxpayers of Ireland are propping up Germany, and are even willing to plunge their country into long term economic decline to do so. Is that generosity, subservience or naivete?

  • Ireland can never repay the debts racked up by the Irish banks, and the Irish government knows that. The empty guarantee was given in order to gain EU aid and to forestall the complete collapse of the Irish banking system. Ireland is effectively bankrupt, but the Irish government, and the Irish people, are unwilling to face that bleak reality yet.

  • “The economy will begin to improve with unemployment ending the year around 7.5%.”

    On the contrary, inflation will rise and be apparent by the first quarter of this year and become blatantly obvious by the end of summer. As inflation starts to rise they will spin it as “positive” for they will logic that demand is driving prices up. By early fall the spin will have dissipated as the reality of continuing unemployment increases. States will be late on their budgets and will be looking for a federal handout to close HUGE deficits but sorry daddy is broke too.

    At this point mass layoffs at the state levels will probably happen. When this happens “IT” is going to hit the fan.

    sorry folks I do not have an optimistic view of our future. I do hope that I am wrong, I truly do. My biggest fear is the USD falling or being replaced as the worlds currency. Look at the direction all the commodities are going…. up, up, up…. The only reason we are doing as well as we have been is because all commodities including oil trad in USD. If that changes we are finished….