Austin Bay at Strategy Page explains why the Iranian Arms Deal increases the likelihood of nuclear war in the Middle East:
Arms controllers hailed the post-World War 1 Washington Naval Arms Treaty as the diplomatic instrument to prevent another peace-destroying naval arms race. Yet it came to pass that war erupted, with the warships of signatories Britain, France and the U.S. battling treaty partners Italy and Japan.
Counting battleships is several quanta easier than verifying Iranian compliance with the Obama administration’s dreadful deal. Russia’s Vladimir Putin claims he helped write it. Given its murk and iffiness, I believe him. Vlad’s Crimea and Ukraine crimes demonstrate how little respect he has for deals that seek to curb the desires of authoritarian killers.
Here’s the Real Deal Part 1: It begins with a broken promise. Once upon a time, President Barack Obama vowed to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons quest. Promise made, promise broken. Well, he promised Americans, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan.”
Obama warned Syria’s dictator that using chemical weapons was a “red line” — employing deadly gas incurs punitive strikes. Yet Syria killed 1,500 civilians with nerve gas, and nothing happened. Iran noticed Obama’s failure to enforce. Syria is Tehran’s client. Iran supports it financially. Iran’s Lebanese Hezbollah proxies reinforce it militarily.
Real Deal Part 2: Iran will cheat. It always does. The ayatollahs will build nuclear bombs and deploy ballistic missiles capable of targeting London. The ayatollahs need, oh, two-dozen nukes, initially. A dozen will destroy Israel and selected targets on the Arabian Peninsula side of the Persian Gulf. The other warheads will top missiles aimed at London and Paris.
Real Deal Part 3: The deal will ignite a Middle Eastern nuclear arms race. Saudi Arabia will seek nukes to deter Iran. U.S.-delivered NATO nukes ostensibly defend Turkey from Iranian attack, but in the Age of Obama Red Lines, what constitutes an ironclad promise? Obama’s words are perishable products; Ankara may acquire its own deterrent. Continue Reading