Political Miscellania 10\6\10

Wednesday, October 6, AD 2010

A roundup of recent political news.

1.  I am not a witch!  Christine O’Donnell’s “I am not a witch” opening salvo in her ad campaign.  Normally an ad from a candidate denying she is a witch would be the last thing heard from a campaign doomed to defeat and oblivion.  However, these are far from normal times.  O’Donnell does two things with this ad.  First, she shows the public that she is a real person and not the cartoon character created by the mainstream media and the denizens of the Left, and she begins to position herself as what she is:  the ultimate outsider.  Not a bad strategy in a political year that will be kind to outsiders and cruel to insiders.

2.  Gallup Poll-Gallup for some reason has been late this year applying a likely voter screen in their polls.   The closer you get to an election the more reliable likely voter polls get, and the less reliable registered voter polls are.  In a high turnout election, Gallup predicts a 13 point Republican advantage among likely voters and in a low voter turnout election Gallup predicts an 18 point Republican advantage among likely voters.  Go here to read the results of the poll.  For comparison’s sake, in the 1994 election when the Republicans took both the House and the Senate, in the Congressional elections the GOP had a six point advantage on election day.

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11 Responses to Political Miscellania 10\6\10

  • Couldn’t the alleged “Democrat comeback” simply be what is known among pollsters as a “dead cat bounce” — a blip upward in the polls that takes place because the disfavored party has hit bottom and has nowhere to go but up, albeit briefly? The phenomenon has occurred often enough that it has a name (borrowed from stock market parlance referring to a brief rally in the price of a stock sliding toward oblivion).

  • It could be Elaine. A party that is on the receiving end of a “taking to the woodshed by the voters” usually does have a mild improvement in the polls close in to the election as some of their disaffected core voters rally to them out of party loyalty and fear of what the opposing party will do in power.

  • A genuine dead cat bounce wouldn’t have to be “invented” by the MSM, but it could easily be misinterpreted by them.

  • Willful misinterpretation would be my guess Elaine, since this is a well-known aspect of politics among those who follow elections, but I certainly do not underestimate the amount of ignorance possessed by some members of the mainstream media.

  • Donald nailed it! The mainstream media is going to try and “paint a picture”. More then any poll, I can’t believe how the Obama’s appointee’s/czars are jumping ship. This is a sure sign that they believe he’s a 1 term president and they need to stay employed. I for one believe both the House and Senate will go RED!!!

  • Don,

    Let me take a wild guess that you’re dyslectic?

    I only say this because the title of your post has the “slash” pointing in the wrong direction.

    If not, then I’m dyslectic.

  • Not dyslectic Tito. I simply usually do date slashes in that manner.

  • The Washington Post front-page, above-the-fold headline for the poll story was pretty funny. A paraphrase:

    Big letters: “DEMOCRATS GAIN IN POLL”
    Little letters: “GOP still leads”

    As for the “I am not a witch” opening salvo, Hillary must be kicking herself. (I kid! I kid!)

  • Translation: “I am way too young to be a witch.”

  • the MSM is a part of the Democrat party. period.

  • The situation with the GOP in Delaware reminds me of this:

    O’Donnell’s part is obvious. The rest of them are the GOP establishment in DE. Burn her! 😉

Gracious Loserman

Tuesday, October 5, AD 2010

Here’s an update to my post from last week.  Doug Hoffman has just announced that he is dropping out of the NY-23 House race and has endorsed the Republican nominee Matt Doheny.  His full statement is here.

“It was never my intention to split the Republican vote in the 23rd District.  So today, I withdraw as a candidate from this race.  Under New York State Election Law my name cannot be removed from the Conservative Party line on the ballot. However, I strongly urge and request that my supporters not vote for me and certainly not vote for the Democrat or Working Families Party candidate.

“Matt Doheny and I may have differed on some issues during the course of our primary race. Now, we must put those differences aside and do what is best for our nation. So today, I am asking all my supporters to cast their vote for Matt Doheny on Election Day, November 2nd.

Classy move, and I think the right one.

And yes, I need to work on my headline writing.

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One Response to Gracious Loserman

  • While certainly the gracious thing to do and, ultimately, probably the smart thing to do, as well, the fact that Hoffman’s name was already on the ballot, and will remain on the ballot, as the Conservative Party candidate reinforces my view that this situation is completely distinguishable from the Charlie Crist/Princess Lisa exercises in self-indulgence.

Sore Losermen

Thursday, September 30, AD 2010

One of the big stories of the year is the growth in prominence of the tea party movement.  Whether or not you are in accord with them politically, they have had an undeniable impact on the political landscape, bringing a new energy to the political scene.  Though tea party- backed  candidates have not been 100 percent successful, they have defeated a fairly substantial number of GOP incumbents and other Republican establishment candidates.  Even relatively conservative Republican incumbents like Senator Bob Bennett of Utah have been sent to an early retirement thanks largely to a grassroots revolt against his like.

One of the most recent successes of the tea party rebellion occurred in Alaska where Joe Miller defeated Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary.  Murkowski was appointed to the Senate to replace her father.  The governor who appointed her also happened to be her father, and it seems that she was led to believe that she is entitled to said seat.  So in the face of electoral defeat in the primary, Senator Murkowski – or Daddy’s Little Princess as she’s being dubbed in some circles – has launched a write-in campaign.  Evidently many voters in the state of Alaska crave royalty as she is actually running neck and neck with Miller in the general election campaign.

Murkowski is not the only moderate Republican who has demonstrated his or her contempt for the unwashed masses who dared to remove them from office.  Governor Charlie Crist, faced with a humiliating primary defeat in Florida against Marco Rubio, decided to jump ship and run as an Independent.  Alas Charlie now faces a humiliating thumping in the general election instead.  Mike Castle, who lost to Christine O’Donnell in the Republican primary for a Delaware Senate seat, toyed with a write-in campaign.  He decided against it, but has ostentatiously declined to endorse O’Donnell.  Other defeated incumbents, like Bennett above as well as Representative Bob Inglis have thrown temper tantrums because the voters dared remove them from office.

Alas it is not just so-called RINOs who have rejected the will of the primary voter.

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12 Responses to Sore Losermen

  • Wasn’t Hoffman the Conservative Party nominee PRIOR TO also seeking the GOP nomination? If so, I don’t see how failing to secure the GOP nomination affects whatsoever his status as the nominee of the Conservative Party. It’s not the same thing as the sour-grapes candidates who run for the GOP nomination and THEN decide to go 3rd party (such as, for example, Charlie Crist and Princess Lisa have done, and, indeed, as Christine O’Donnell did the last time she ran for the Senate).

    Why should a 3rd-party candidate bow out just to clear the field for the GOP?

    One could argue that, as a prudential matter, Hoffman is wasting his time because the right-of-center voters of the district have already spoken (and especially if the Tea Party folks are beginning to embrace the GOP nominee). But I don’t think Hoffman quite qualifies as a “sore loser” for continuing with his run as the Conservative Party candidate.

    By the way, if I’m mistaken in my understanding that Hoffman was already the Conservative Party nominee PRIOR TO also seeking the GOP nomination, then I withdraw my defense of him.

  • Jay,

    You are correct that Hoffman had the conservative party nomination, but the same is true of Ric Lazio, and the latter dropped out once he lost the primary election. Hoffman was attempting to “unify” the Republicans and the conservatives, but he failed in that bid. It seems to me that once you have decided to enter the fray, you should respect the wishes of the primary voters.

    I’ll grant that his situation isn’t exactly the same as Murkowski’s for the reasons you cite. And Hoffman certainly isn’t obliged to drop out simply because he lost the primary. But it seems as a practical matter that Hoffman should drop his conservative candidacy in the light of the primary election.

  • The term “moderate” is a misnomer for Republocrats like Murkowski…folks such as her are political elites who aspire to be the worst, most profligate aristocracy in human history. At least prior, historical oligarchies of other nations were restrained by the simple fact of technological paucity, requiring them to at least pay lip service to a higher auhority and transcendetal values…the scumbag “legislators” currently holding American government hostage make no such pretense. They are extremely dangerous and should not under any circumstances be referred to as “moderate” simply because they collude with each other under two different political brand names.

  • And then in Illinois we have the really strange case of a “sore winner” — Scott Lee Cohen, who won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, dropped out after all sorts of damaging revelations about his past came to light (involving lawsuits, accusations of domestic violence, knifing an alleged hooker, unpaid child support, etc.), then decided to run for GOVERNOR as an independent… and is now polling at or above 10 percent in some polls.

    Of course Cohen’s case is not quite the same as those listed above because he actually WON his primary, albeit for a lower office. However, he does have the potential to be a “spoiler” in the general election and most likely, it will be GOP candidate Bill Brady’s chances that he ends up spoiling!

  • I am vastly amused Elaine by the “I’m voting for Scott Lee Cohen” ads, with people repeating that statement. Who knew that there was such sympathy for the plight of a candidate who held a knife to the neck of his prostitute “fiancee”? I don’t really think Cohen will be a factor, and that Brady will double digit wallop Quinn, notwithstanding the Trib’s bizarre recent poll showing Quinn one point ahead, which contradicts every other poll I have seen.

  • Elaine and Donald,

    What is in the water in your state? Seriously, I think Latin American countries shake their head in disbelief at your politics.

  • I knew it was somewhat bad, but not this bad!

  • “What is in the water in your state? Seriously, I think Latin American countries shake their head in disbelief at your politics.”

    Concisely Paul what Sean Connery said in the Untouchables: “This town stinks like a whorehouse at low tide.” Chicago has an unbelievably corrupt political culture which has infected the entire state. For far too long the people of this state have tolerated it, and Illinois is facing bankruptcy because of it.

  • Illinois within its current boundaries is indicative of a problem with provincial government in this country in that you have an assemblage of small cities (50,000-270,000 in population), small towns, and countryside as a tributary zone to a megalopolitan area. New York, New Jersey, Arizona, and Nevada all have the same problem; Maryland has a variant of it. You need to reconstitute Illinois into a confederation of two components with parallel governments, cede some territory to Missouri and Iowa, &c.

  • Art, Downstate Illinois would happily readjust our boundaries so that Chicago would be Wisconsin’s problem, as was originally intended I believe back in territorial days. Alas, I am certain that those who live behind the Cheddar Curtain would object.

  • NO, Donald, NO, NO, NO!!! Just the thought of Chicago joining the Badger State makes me break out in a cold sweat. I think even the most left-wing Wisconsinites would be firmly opposed to any readjustment of borders. The libs might not be bothered by additional crime, voter fraud, and scores of sleazy politicians, but, goodness, bringing a bunch of Bear fans within the borders of our fair state, now, that really is a heinous thought 🙂

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