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Debate Three: State of the Race

Almost all pundits now assume that Donald Trump is beaten and his corpse of a campaign is already being picked over by media vultures.  His recent polls have been dismal, with Clinton in some having up to a 12 point lead.  Trump has been besieged with women coming forward to attest to at best boorish behavior, at worst to behavior that could have him facing sexual assault charges in some States.  He apparently had no plan about what to do in regard to this, although he should have assumed that something like this, real or fake, would be thrown against him towards the end of the election.  (Curious how none of the women came forward during the primaries.  All purely coincidental I am sure.)  His campaign has been amateurish.  His ground game is non-existent.  Some polls show him on the verge of losing such die hard Republican states as Arizona and Texas.  He seems headed to a defeat of epic proportions.  That may well happen in three weeks less a day.  However, I am not convinced that events will certainly play out that way.

1. Trump is a brawler.  He is not in this race to claim the title of good loser which seemed to be the goal of John McCain, for example, in 2008.  He will keep slugging until after the last vote is counted.  As in the duel above from Rob Roy, a skilled opponent against a brawler sometimes gets overconfident, and the brawler can seize the initiative in an instant.

2. Trump is slime.  Trump is a sleazy guy, to put it charitably, one of endless reasons why I opposed him in the primaries, and why I long refused to support him.  The King and Queen of Sleaze in American politics are of course Bill and Hillary.  However, Trump is giving them a run for their crowns.  Go here to read the Hillary expose from the Trump-supporting National Enquirer.  When it comes to throwing filth, Trump is only beginning to fight.

3. Disparate polls.  A strange dichotomy has arisen between live phone polls, and internet polls and polls that rely upon robo calls.  Trump tends to do much better in the latter polls than in the former. For example, in the Rasmussen poll from yesterday Clinton is up one point over Trump.  Go here to look at it.  Today Rasmussen has it dead even.  Go here to look at it.  People’s Pundit Tracking Poll had Trump ahead by one point.  Go here to view it.  A Cvoter international poll yesterday showed Clinton up two points, although I have not found a link to the it.  The Los Angeles Times Daily Tracker Poll has a unique methodology in that it polls the same 3000 people each day.  It was the most accurate poll in 2012.  Today it shows Trump and Clinton tied.  Go here to look at it.  In every election cycle there are outlier polls, but it is odd to have such a long lasting split as seen in this election.  Is it possible that these polls are catching a hidden Trump vote that will not reveal itself to live pollsters?  We will find out in the second Tuesday in November.  Although I hate to mention him in the same breath as Trump, I would note that Gallup had Reagan down by eight points at the end of October in 1980 just prior to his one and only debate with Carter.  Reagan went on to win by ten points.  Polls are amusing, sometimes useful, but rarely should they be accepted as Sacred Writ.

 

 

4.  Odd election.  We have never had a non-politician billionaire run for President before.  The closest to our current situation is Wendell Wilkie against FDR in 1940, but that was a far more conventional race.  Here we have two deeply unpopular candidates who most people view as lying bottom feeders.  I predict a low voter turnout and soft support.  That might be helpful to Trump who has a hard core of support that is with him no matter what.  Hillary has never been the darling of the leftist activists who are the hard core of the Democrat party.

5. Change election.  After two terms in the White House, the American people usually turn to the opposition.  The overwhelming majority of the country believes the nation is on the wrong track.  Clinton promises more of the same.  Trump may be half crazy, but no one can consider him a status quo candidate.

6. Events. This is very much an events driven campaign.  A major terrorist strike;  a large race riot;  damning Wikileaks revelations;  fed up FBI agents speaking out against the fixed non-prosecution of Clinton, these and many more events could all have a substantial impact on this election.  This is the type of year thus far in which the improbable is all too probable.  Stay tuned.  I predict a wild conclusion to a wild campaign.

Update:  The IDB/TIPP poll is starting its daily tracker today.  It shows Trump one point ahead.   Go here to look at it. It was among the amost accurate of polls in 2012.  Something is definitely screwy with polling this year when we see the types of disparities in polls that we are witnessing.

 

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Donald R. McClarey

Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three and happily married for 35 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.

9 Comments

  1. I will vote for either Evan McMullin who was a Republican but is now running as an Independent or Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party. I cannot bring myself to vote for Trump, and I will NOT vote for the baby-murdering sodomy-sanctifiers that are Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Yes, I realize that neither McMullin nor Castle has a chance on Earth or in Hades below, but I am sick of choosing between the lesser of two evils, and the four top dogs – Hillary, Trump, Johnson and Stein – are all in one way or another supporters of evil.

  2. S.Armaticus: Thank you for WEAPONIZED DESPONDENCY. I was about to write that the followers of Trump’s campaign have been bullied and obliterated into hiding as free men. Free men’s one voice is the vote, if only to respond to the treason of BenGhazi. The rest of my comment must be censored.

  3. Cam,
    .
    Both McMullin and Castle would appoint conservative justices to SCOTUS.
    .
    I realize that is NOT the answer you want. You would prefer I say I would vote for unacceptable Trump because he promised to appoint conservative justices. But I am in SC right across the border from Charlotte, NC and SC will go for Trump, so my vote won’t matter except as my protest against a corrupt system.
    .
    And besides, I am sick and tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. Livia is a murderous pathological liar and Crassus is an unprincipled foul mouthed playboy gambler. So I shall vote my Catholic conscience.
    .
    One last thing. I think all the powers that be from Wallstreet to DC have pre-decided that Livia will win, so it doesn’t really matter. I do not have Don McClarey’s optimism unfortunately.

  4. I’d consider the claims of a “shy Tory” or “hidden Trump support” voter turnout if only I saw more evidence of a visible Trump support. One million Trump fans going door-to-door to ask their neighbors to vote for Trump would be a sure sign of a Trump groundswell. So where are they? Uh huh, at home cocooning and hiding. Wow, that’s really going to motivate the reluctant voters–not! *
     
    I took a look at the Gateway Pundit article. It’s just wishful thinking. Poll samples are weighted? Of course they are, they always are. I too am acquainted with interpretive statistics. I also have some experience with running for office. Weighting polled samples is how pollsters adjust their samples to reflect the (usually) larger number of identified (by voter registration, usually) Democrat voters. There’s also turnout. The Democrat turnout machine is worth at least an extra 4 percentage point bump for Mrs. Clinton in the battleground states.
     
    * a little 1990s lingo

  5. Look, Micha, everybody we know with the exception of a govt lawyer and a trust fund baby are going to vote Trump/ Pence. That includes clergy. Does anyone have a Trump/Pence sign out on their front lawn or a bumper sticker? No. We either have businesses, or are in the military or work for the state/fed/county government or retired who don’t want to be harangued or vandalized by Clinton/Kane zealots and thugs. We see plenty signs for our Republican congressman seeking re-election. We don’t fool ourselves about the possibility of retribution (think IRS, non-selection for promotion or loss of contracts or county permits) if She wins. It’s like we are early Christians in the catacombs.

  6. Well, if the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians can make it to the World Series, I guess anything is possible 🙂

  7. Look, Micha, everybody we know with the exception of a govt lawyer and a trust fund baby are going to vote Trump/ Pence.
    –CAM

    Are you trying to play a schoolyard game of My ‘Everybody I Know’ Can Beat Up Your ‘Everybody You Know’?

    P.S. The Cubs and Indians have pretty much soaked up all the natural stray potential for improbable outcomes this fall. There’s none left over for Trump. His fans will have to make their own luck.

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