Going into the Labor Day weekend, Clinton is slightly ahead with Trump gaining ground. The Los Angeles Times daily tracker shows Trump with a lead today of three points. Go here to view it. The topline result in August presidential polls isn’t important but the direction can be, and the direction for Trump is good news. Almost all polls now show that he has at least halved the bounce that Clinton got from her convention. As a candidate Trump seems to be learning his new trade of politician. Clinton is bedeviled by her ongoing e-mail scandals that demonstrate that as Secretary of State she was selling access. The New York Times published an editorial yesterday urging Clinton to cut all ties with the Clinton Foundation. Clinton is a candidate under constant ethical fire who seems to be attempting to sit upon a shrinking lead with few public appearances for a candidate for President, while Trump ceaselessly barnstorms up and down the country. This is political malpractice on the part of the Clinton campaign.
I cannot emphasize enough how unusual a candidate Trump is. To underline this, today he is having a summit with the President of Mexico. This is an unusual year and Trump is a candidate who is sui generis in American presidential politics. Looking at all this, I stand by my prediction that Trump will win and it will not be close. Hang on politics fans, it is going to be a wild two month ride to election day.
I pray to God Almighty that Trump wins not because I like Trump or think he is capable of being a great President, but because I want to hear the liberal progressive Democrats howl, weep, wail and gnash their teeth in defeat. I want to say to them, “Now get out of this country as you threatened to do if Trump won. Get out! You are NOT welcome!”
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I also have hope (not much but some) that if Trump wins, then appointments to SCOTUS may be conservative.
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And yes, there is one blogmeister (who doesn’t and wouldn’t participate here) to whom I want to say, “You lost. You freaking lost! Now get out, you traitor to the US Naval Officer Uniform! Get the frack out, you anti-American effeminate emasculated excrementum putre!” Oh, if Trump wins, then I am going to have so much fun. It may be short lived as Trump acts like a canon ball amid international politics, but he cannot possibly do worse than that murderous pathologically lying scoundrel.
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Sorry, folks. I just cannot help myself.
Most polls don’t matter, including the one cited above, since they measure popular voting trends. The Electoral College determines the President, not the popular vote. In this, Trump’s path is very narrow, as was Romney’s last cycle. Romney had skill, money and a fine political machine and he couldn’t navigate the path. I really doubt this oaf can pull it off.
270 votes are needed. Hillary already has 234 locked up. A select few swing States are all that matter. States like FL, PA, MI, CO, GA, VA, OH. THAT is where the outcome will be determined: internal polling in key swing States.
A fine review and of the Electoral College path to Office is here:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439466/donald-trump-electoral-map-paths-270-impossibly-narrow
Agree with Dr. McClarey. I believe there is a deep rooted dissatisfaction and anger out here amongst the folks, many of whom will not admit they will vote for Trump and the polls do not see them.
Meeting with the president of Mexico is not unusual. It’s debate prep. He is preparing for a slam on Hillary. It goes something like…
“A president should have leadership qualities, to be on top of the issues. Hillary does not have these qualities. She has been absent at every turn.
Riots in Wisconsin? Absent.
Floods in Louisiana? Absent.
Benghazi? Absent.
Immigration issue? Absent.
I met with the president of Mexico to discuss the problems of illegal immigration.”
The Bear is for Trump. By Bear standards, there is certainly nothing objectionable about him. But Trump will not win. A Trump win would unhinge American politics. The Bear is not a conspiracy theorist, usually, but goth the GOP and Dems are united on this one issue: Trump must be stopped. No candidate has ever won the presidency without the support of one of the two major parties. Even the Bear’s friend Teddy Roosevelt couldn’t make the Bull Moose Party work. I hear you say, “Yes, but that was a third party.” For all intents and purposes, Trump is running as on a third party “Trump Ticket” even though he is technically in the GOP. The powers will be will make a Trump win impossible. A Trump win would hurt the dems, obviously, but the establishment Romney, McCain, Dole, Bush+ party would also suffer, having been proved to be largely irrelevant. As soon as the Bear’s lawyers figure out a way around the “natural born citizen” business, the Bear will run, and everybody loves Bears. And that will be the last election you humans will ever need.
Agree with the Bear that Trump win is slim. The powers that be are the powers that be for a reason, and they will not go quietly into the night. Like the Pope’s much ballyhooed Synod, the outcome of this election has been predetermined. There is simply no way to verify the integrity of electronic “voting” machines. Maybe Russia and China will send election observers.
If they are smart, they will at least have programmed the machines to make the race look reasonably close. If Texas goes Hildebeast, that might raise suspicions.
Liberals suffer from severe allergies to facts. If you must provide facts to a liberal, be charitable and have on-hand an extra large, say a gallon, jar of Claritin.
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Whoever wins will face a number of ticking time bombs. Clinton will make them worse. Even more dangerous to Americans than making the SCOTUS one which Saul Alinsky would love is Hillary’s destructive (superstition-based) economics policy.
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Dan Mitchell, “This is the bitter fruit of creationist economics, the erroneous belief that government activity can somehow conjure new wealth and value.” Economic policies based on emotions never solve anything.
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“When did Americans decide that 1% or 2% economic growth is acceptable, that puny wage increases are inevitable, and that we should all merely shrug and get used to the country’s diminished expectations? …the first quarter is further evidence of what has been the weakest economic expansion in the postwar era. …All of this continues the slow-or-slower pace of this entire expansion that began nearly seven years ago. Each year has had a similar GDP dip, and growth has never exceeded 2.5% (2010). The American economy hasn’t grown by more than 3% since 2005 (3.3%), the longest such stretch of malaise that we can find in the Bureau of Economic analysis tables going back to 1930. …Faster growth is possible, but it will take better policies.”
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“This would place his (Obama) presidency fourth from the bottom of the list of 39*, above only those of Herbert Hoover (-5.65%), Andrew Johnson (-0.70%) and Theodore Roosevelt (1.41%).”
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30 Aug 2016, Steven Moore, “Hillary Clinton is apparently one of Mrs. Pelosi’s A students. The entire Clinton recovery agenda is to spend $1 trillion more on government public works programs, free day care and college education, and expanded entitlements. She would raise investment and personal income tax rates (paid by many small businesses) to finance all of this.
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“Hillary has been parading around a study by economist Mark Zandi of Moodys, which claims that this fairy dust will mean happy days are here again. He claims millions of new jobs and billions in added output. But Mr. Zandi has been one of the wrongest economists in America for the past decade.”
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28 Aug 2016: Instapundit quoted Powerlline, John Hinderaker: Why it isn’t “the economy, stupid,” this time:
“In 1992, Bill Clinton announced that “It’s the economy, stupid.” That was pretty much the sole theme of his campaign. He ludicrously claimed that the country was then experiencing “the worst economy since the Great Depression,” a lie that the press, to its everlasting shame, not just allowed but often endorsed. So what was the level of GDP growth that Clinton relentlessly denigrated?
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“According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the quarterly growth numbers for 1992, in chained 2009 dollars, were 4.8%, 4.5%, 3.9% and 4.1%. That’s right–the growth that Bill Clinton derided as the “worst economy since the Great Depression” was around four times what we are now seeing under Barack Obama. And Hillary Clinton promises to continue Obama’s anti-growth policies.”
Seen at “Zero Hedge.” The little people pay! “A look into the time that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and family chartered a Gulfstream Jet, at taxpayer expense (a bargain at $90,000), to attend a retirement ceremony for their chef in . . . La Jolla, California.”
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As a taxpayer, I prefer that the Foundation pay for her first-class transport and five-star hotels. Hey, she gave Russia only 20% of our uranium – soon to be given back at no charge by Iran. BANG
Then why did the powers that be allow the Republicans to win such smashing victories in 2010 and 2014? For that matter, why didn’t the powers that be merely stop Trump from gaining the Republican nomination? I am always cynical about conspiracy theories that require ungodly amounts of people to be involved to make them work, with all of them keeping their mouths fully shut.
A poll of world leaders would be neat – if they could vote secretly- as to who they think will win in November – as well as who they hope will win…
I know you’re not the “average bear”, Bear, but disagree. This is the most unusual presidential election year in our lifetimes. Trump being the nominee is testament to that. The Republican establishment have nothing to say about this. They weren’t able to wield their influence in the primaries and certainly not now. I really believe he has a decent chance largely due to the morass created by obama.
Trump is trashing the K Street GOP establishment. National Review is part of that establishment and, like Glenn Beck, they can’t let go of their Trump hatred.
Not for one second have I considered Donald Trump to be a champion of social conservative causes. Rick Santorum was, and look where that got him. Social conservatism has been trashed by the media and Hollywood. The typically spineless USCCB, still smarting over the homosexual priest scandal, has nothing to say about anything except allowing more immigrants into the country.
We need economic growth and we need to be rid of the Clintons. Who knows if it will happen?
“Romney had skill, money and a fine political machine and he couldn’t navigate the path. I really doubt this oaf can pull it off.”
Uh. Were you even alive during Romney’s presidential campaign? It was an absolute joke. There was no get out the vote effort. There was no serious social media component. He would not attack his opponent with the truth. He was a weak candidate in more than one way. He was a purely establishment moderate, and no establishment moderate has beat a liberal Democrat for President in my adult lifetime. Get real!
Trump is showing that the dynamics of our basically one party system (Insider Party) can be changed. Even if he doesn’t win there will be over 50 million Americans who have a significant and hopefully favorable influence on politics going forward. Conclusion: The Trump phenomenon is positive for democracy.
Plus he is inserting some facts into the public conversation that others have been reluctant to say.