Predictions for 2012

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Time for my annual predictions for the coming year, once again boldly going where angels, although not fools, fear to tread:

1.  The GOP will retain the House in the 2012 elections.  Both parties in the House assume that is going to happen, as nine Democrats, most of them  veteran members, are retiring, to zip for the GOP.

2.  The GOP will gain the Senate.   21 Democrats, 10 Republican and 2 Independent seats are up, and the GOP only needs to flip 4, or 3 if they win the White House.  I see the GOP flipping Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska and North Dakota, with possibles in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia.  I see the Democrats flipping Massachusetts with a possible in Nevada.

3.  Despite a lacklustre group of candidates I do believe that the GOP will gain the White House.  The economy is simply too dismal for this election to be anything except a referendum on Obama’s stewardship of the economy, and I do not think that all the campaign money and friendly media in the world can transform this particular pig’s ear into a silk purse.  Jay Cost, one of the best political analysts extant, has a good article here detailing the odds against Obama.  Heaven knows that missteps by the GOP could help Obama a great deal, but at the end I think there are just too many people who believe the country is on the wrong track for Obama to win.

4.  A repeat from last year:  either North Korea or Iran will go through a violent revolution that will topple one of the regimes in 2012.

5.  A major terrorist incident will occur in the United States during the coming year as the jihadists attempt some payback for Osama, and as the factions among the terrorists jockey for power.

6.  The Euro will be put out of its misery and cease to exist as a currency.

7.   Eric Holder will resign as Attorney General prior to November.  The heat on the Fast and Furious scandal is building too high for him to survive.

8.  The World will not end and purveyors of the Mayan doomsday prophecy will have to find a new sting to milk money out of yokels.

9.   Ron Paul (R.Pluto) will run third party and get between 3-5% of the vote, drawing equally from GOP and Democrat leaning voters.

10. McClarey will be wrong on some of his predictions.

8 Responses to Predictions for 2012

  • I agree with most of these, Don, except #3. I unfortunately believe Obama will pull off a win based mainly on independent voters, even though they do believe the country is on the wrong track, ultimately deciding to go with the devil they know in preference to the devil they don’t know, particularly if the devil they don’t know is one of those awful, looney right wingers (as portrayed by the media).

    I would add the following:

    11. A persistent La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific will mean yet another year of wild weather including tornado outbreaks, flooding and continued drought in the southern Plains. This means more billion-dollar weather disasters (though hopefully, not nearly as many deaths), more frantic scrambling for FEMA funding, and also….

    12. Even more hysterical insistence by AGW advocates that global warming/climate change is to blame, never mind the continued real scientific evidence against it.

  • This one is getting my nerves because it has been a persistent prediction of Obama-haters since 2008:

    “A major terrorist incident will occur in the United States during the coming year …”

    Partisans insisted that they knew for a fact that major terrorist incident would occur the moment Obama stepped into the office, so we all had better vote Republican or we’re dead. Obviously, the threat is real, but I don’t see that is more real with a Democratic president or less real with a Republican president, or that Obama somehow doesn’t care one way or another about terrorism on US soil. And it irks me that none of these partisans is stepping up to the plate to admit the bogusness of their prediction.

  • Well Spambot we have had a major terrorist incident in the US under Obama already, the Fort Hood massacre. The Obama Defense Department has characterized this act of terrorism as being an example of workplace violence:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/06/military-growing-terrorist-target-lawmakers-warn/

    In any case my prediction has nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with how I think the jihadists will react eventually to the taking out of Bin Laden and the power vacuum that has created.

  • #1 & #2, yes, it’s highly unhighly Republicans won’t control both houses.

    3. I think Romney will be president but I acknowledge that’s wishful thinking. Objectively, Obama has a slight edge. Economy has improved somewhat, the Republican brand is hurting, and I think a third party would hurt Romney more than Obama.

    4. No, Iran or North Korea will not fall.

    5. No major Islamist terrorist attack in the US. It’s been 10 years already. No reason to believe this will be the year.

    6. The Euro will survive, without a doubt.

    7. Eric Holder will not resign.

    9. Ron Paul will not run third party but Gary Johnson will and get a sizable chunk of the vote which would hurt Romney more than Obama.

    11. Ron Paul will win Iowa, followed by Romney and Santorum.

    12. Marco Rubio will be Romney’s running mate.

    13. Assad will no longer be president of Syria.

    14. There will be minor market liberalization in North Korea.

    15. South Korea will elect its first female president, Park Geun-hye, a conservative.

    16. Another congressman will be caught in a sex scandal.

    17. Dark Knight Rises will be the highest grossing movie of the year.

  • “12. Marco Rubio will be Romney’s running mate.”

    Either he or Bob McConnell of Virginia will be the running mate of the eventual Republican nominee. If Obama loses either state he is in deep kimchi.

    “14. There will be minor market liberalization in North Korea.”
    I doubt it. When Stalinist regimes start letting up there is a danger that the regime could start unraveling. I think instead Fearless Leader III will follow a Rehoboam strategy and I hope he gets a Rehoboam result.

    “16. Another congressman will be caught in a sex scandal.”
    And in other predictions the sun will rise in the east all next year!

  • 18. Romney will be the GOP presidential nominee.

    19. The Occupy Wall Street crowd will attempt to stage protests at both political conventions, to the delight of the GOP and the chagrin of the Democrats.

    20. Unemployment will still be over 8% on election day.

    21. The Euro will continue to teeter throughout the year, with France and Germany putting forward further proposals for fiscal union in an attempt to shore up the structure. This will fuel nationalist movements in France in particular, and resentment in Germany. Unrest over austerity measures will grow in Greece, Italy and Spain, and those who envision a United States of Europe will begin to remember that it a took a civil war to cement the United States of America into a union — and this with states with a common language and much less history of division.

  • #17 – Don’t forget the trilogy rule: the first one is good, the director outdoes himself with the sequel, and the studio ruins the third one. The Dark Knight Rises will do well, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets beaten by The Hobbit.

    #12 – Another thing that wouldn’t surprise me is some talk about General Petraeus for VP (not that I’m advocating one way or the other).

  • –States of the Euro-periphery will impose exchange controls, a bank holiday, and quantitative limits on withdrawals subsequent to the holiday. All the Euro notes produced by their local printing plants will have distinguishing red stamps placed on them during the bank holiday and all other Euro notes will but treated as foreign currency from then on. Greece and Ireland will suspend payments on their public debt.

    – There will be a catastrophic banking crisis in the Eurozone states. Their banks are too big to bail and have generally failed to make use of the last three years to improve their capital cushions. Re-pricing of sovereign debt issues will render ~30% of the banking sector insolvent.

    –An economic contraction in output of 13% or so will ensue in Eurozone countries

    –The Chinese financial sector will be systemically distressed by an implosion of real-estate prices. There will be knock-on effects in China’s real economy.

    –Euro trouble and China trouble will cause knock-on effects of uncertain severity in Britain, the United States, &c., but the conduit of transmission will not be the domestic financial sector.

    –The Senate rules providing for the practice of the filibuster will remain in effect during the 113th Congress.

    –B.O. will fall to any Republican with a claim to being presentable (i.e. someone other than Dr. Paul, Dr. Gingrich, or Mrs. Bachmann).

    –Harry Reid will continue to be godawful.

    –Republican presidential candidates and congressional leadership will continue to pretend that our fiscal deficits can and must be addressed without tax increases.

    —-

    –We’d best hope that the first six suppositions are wrong. The last two are a near certainty.

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