We Are Shackled to a Corpse
Last night Republican Robert Turner won the special Congressional election in New York 9, the congressional seat vacated by Anthony Weiner of Weinergate infamy. Weiner was a pro-abort. Turner is pro-life and against gay marriage. How does a candidate, a 70 year old retired executive with no prior political experience, like this win in an icy blue congressional district held by Democrats since 1923?
Turner won by turning the race into a referendum on Obamanomics, and with this strategy he won resoundingly, 54-46.
This race is going to send shock waves through the Democrat establishment. Already some Democrat leaders were saying privately what most sentient Americans realize: due to his lousy stewardship of the economy Obama may well lose next year. With this election, many Democrat leaders may well change from “may well lose” to “probably will lose”.
Normally, a president with such a wretched economy would be certain to draw a serious primary challenger: think Kennedy v. Carter in 1980. The Democrats simply do not have that option with Obama. Successfully primary the first Black president, and the Democrats can kiss the Black vote goodby in 2012, their loyalest constituency. No, all the Democrats can do is sit back, watch the economy worsen, and dread the rapid approach of November 2012.
In World War I German officers would say privately, in reference to their weak Austrian allies, “We are shackled to a corpse!” No doubt many Democrat strategists are this morning having similar thoughts about their party and Obama.
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Drudge has this as its top story headlined: “Revenge of the Jews…” which give Obama a 13% approval rating in that district. Notice ‘The Jews’ terminology, which one poster has accused me of using. As a voting bloc, Jews, for all their reputation as liberals, have a solid conservative streak as evidenced by this election and their positions on social issues such as abortion and homo marriage.
Orthodox Jews do Joe, and those are the type of Jews which predominate in that district, which has not prevented them from voting for politically liberal secular Jews, up to now. Obama may not have brought the hope, but he certainly brought the change, just not the change his most ardent backers expected.
Something will “come up” and Obama will have to make the hard choice between his “whatever” and running for a second term … I think he will not be running.
I pray every day Obama loses the White House, the sooner (e.g., by impeachment) the better, but ejection after the November 2012 election would be satisfactory result.
Don’t forget the other special election GOP victory in Nevada-2 by Mark Amodei. Evidently President Obama had to rally the troops last night, and here’s some video:
Interesting thing about the district is that, though it’s solidly Democrat, it’s one of the more Republican friendly districts in the city outside of Staten Island. It’s a ridiculously gerrymandered district that snakes across the Orthodox Jewish section in Brooklyn to the middle class neighborhoods like Forest Hills in Queens. These are the areas that supported Rudy Giuliani and which will occasionally cross party lines for Republicans in local elections. Still a big shock, though I fear the seat could be swallowed up due to re-districting as NY is due to lose a Congressional seat in the city.
I looked up the district map to see if I ever lived in it. The district border looks like it’s crossing the street whenever it sees a black person. I’m generally a fan of gerrymandering (yes, a fan), but I just found the blatant racial districting amusing.
How Republican-friendly blue state districts are seems to be highly correlated to the immigrant-to-WASP/black ratio. That kind of turns the popular narrative on its head. Blue state WASPs are the most reliably Democrat. First generation immigrants are socially conservative small business owners who don’t care for handouts. They’re natural constituents for the GOP. The only reason they’re still swing voters leaning Democrat is because of the GOP’s immigration problem.
The district was intentionally gerrymandered so that the surrounding districts would be more heavily minority, which means it’s a pretty white bread district itself. In fact it snakes through my old neighborhood (Ridgewood), though the district that my mother is in is actually represented by Nydia Velazquez – and said district is itself ridiculously drawn up.
I looked up the district map to see if I ever lived in it. The district border looks like it’s crossing the street whenever it sees a black person. I’m generally a fan of gerrymandering (yes, a fan), but I just found the blatant racial districting amusing.
You’re on to something, but it’s the exact opposite motivation at work. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 has a mandate to maximize African American representation. That’s why you sometimes see truly odd districts, and have seen some intensive litigation over them. The Shaw v. Reno line of cases (involving the infamous I-95 district in North Carolina) at the Supreme Court has really made district drawing a balance beam act.
You also get to see some very funny arguments by lawyers as a result, in an attempt to evoke the bizarreness of the district shape. The Shaw case had a lawyer arguing that “if you drove down I-95 with both doors open, you’d kill half the voters in the district.” Bush v. Vera was even better: “these districts were not drawn, they were vomited on a screen door.”
Ironically enough, the Supreme Court initially punted on challenges to majority-minority cases in a case originating out of a New York district that was heavily Orthodox Jewish in population: the United Jewish Organizations v. Carey case back in 1977. While the Supreme Court ultimately rejected the challenge, the justices were so befuddled by the problem that there was only a plurality in favor of the judgment and a lot of half-concurrences which make the Oracle at Delphi look positively forthright by comparison.
My day began with a good laugh, as I saw Debbie Wasserman-Schultz say that this district has always been “difficult” for Democrats. Oh yes, what an uphill battle the donks have had in a district that hasn’t had a GOP rep since the 1920′s.
I’m becoming a big fan of Debbie, really I am. I hope she is on TV flapping her jaw as much as possible between now and Nov. 2012. She’s almost as entertaining as Biden.
Debbie does have a true talent for comedy relief. I suspect that her party will need all the comedy relief they can muster after the election results next year.
That election victory is more evidence that the public holds Republicans to a higher moral standard than Democrats.