Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 8:40am

Sarah Palin: Two Predictions

Based upon the above ad, and other signs, I think it is clear that Sarah Palin is going to run for President.  I have two modest predictions to make if she does get in:

1.  She will win the Republican nomination.

2.  She will beat Obama decisively in the general election, gaining over 300 electoral votes.

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Thos. Collins
Thos. Collins
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 6:07am

1.) I doubt she will even seek the nomination.

2.) If she IS the GOP candidate Obama will win in a landslide.

3.) Why are we even talking about this? The election is 1.5 years away. My proposal: no primaries until after 4th of July, then conventions after Labor Day.

Better yet, no primaries at all. I don’t see we’re better off with the pee-pul choosing candidates than when party hacks were in charge.

Chris
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 6:16am

She’s become too polarizing. I don’t think she’ll get very far if she runs for office.
Maybe she can hope to become the Secretary of State…

Big Tex
Big Tex
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 6:17am

Wow. Nice.

Phillip
Phillip
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 6:31am

I think she is “too polarizing” because the media has made her appear so. She is far less polarizing in reality that, say, Obama.

Paul Primavera
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 6:48am

The news media will do everything in its power to ensure Sarah Palin is defetaed. They cannot stand a conservative Christian woman, especially one who is beautiful and shows by that beauty how godlessly ugly their liberal feminist sexual perversion is.

I wish Don’s predictions would come to pass, but that’s more hope than reality.

bellez
bellez
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:07am

It won’t happen as long as the negativity of “I don’t think she can win” talk keeps up..You think ANYONE is just gonna walk in & take it? Your gonna have to have faith pray then work like a dog to make it happen..She is gonna run,,she will beat Obama as long as WE DO OUR PART! She was ONLY ONE fighting against Obama the last three yrs..men put your ego’s aside-women put your jealousy aside..remember Moses led the people to freedom and he was mocked because he studdered..She is good decent hardworking woman that is not owned. This may be our last shot of saving our country..She has NO ties to oil,pharma,wall street,banks,muslim brotherhood…They fear her cause she WILL bring down entire foundation they spent 100yr sbuilding

Max
Max
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:25am

3 Years of Attacks:

attempt to burn her church down, accuse her of murder, 1,000s death threats, 40+ reporters sent to AK for e-mail dig, Dozens of CNN, CBS, NBC, NY Times “polls” saying negs are high / not liked etc., Obama “media” repeating Can’t win a general, to divisive, obama landslide win & promote bachmann & perry to keep her out!!

ALL THIS TELLS ME SHE WILL EASILY BET OBAMA!!! twitter: @MaxCUA

Paul Primavera
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:37am

Well, maybe Donald, Bellez and Max are right. I will say this: the dripping putrid hatred that liberal blog meisters demonstrate for Sarah Palin on their message boards is almost palpable. I even know some who are otherwise very intelligent and well-balanced when it comes to science and engineering. In fact, I can’t believe that the pro-nuclear energy forums I “attend” are all so in love with Obama (who himself appointed an anti-nuke as NRC chairman, thereby stifling the nuclear rennaissance) and in hatred against Sarah Palin (who is very pro-nuclear). I just don’t get it. That’s the reason for my pessimism – the liberals control what’s said in the media.

BTW, the actual people who work in nuclear energy – those without time to administer blog sites – are for Sarah Palin and against Barack HUSSEIN Obama.

RR
RR
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:42am

Delusional.
Obama has a better chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Paul Primavera
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:52am

Donald,

I thus thank God for TAC, Real Catholic TV and similar outlets. I mean that sincerely.

RR
RR
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 7:59am

Don, a wager? If Palin enters and wins the nomination, I’ll upload a pic of me with literal egg on my face. If Palin enters and fails to win the nomination, you do it.

Joe Green
Joe Green
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:08am

In this age of “gotcha” journalism dominated by leftist media, the sharks will be out en masse picking up on every alleged Palin”gaffe.”

Bachmann’s pretty much finished after her Elvis blooper (despite the triviality of it). When you become the constant butt of late night comics and political cartoonists and the jokes go viral, you’re done in the eyes of many.

In an age when appearances rather than substance matter most, Chris Christie also wouldn’t last long given his corpulence. Imagine him, for example, counseling Americans to “tighten our belts” and the reaction.

Palin has hard core support on the right, especially the Tea Party, but there are millions of haters out there who would still stick with Obama rather than see her win. She ran a small state, which as governor would be comparable to being mayor of Columbus, Ohio, and while charismatic she lacks intellectual depth and gravitas to be president. However, if she were on the ballot against Obama, I’d hold my nose and vote for her.

Right now, I’d say it’s a two-man race between Romney (well financed and a good campaigner) and Perry (the best resume by far), and while neither is ideal in my view (although a Perry-Ryan ticket would be attractive), both are superior to the hapless McCain and likely have the best chance to beat Barack.

Speaking of which, while the economy is in the crapper, don’t discount Obama’s ability to turn things around by fudging the numbers and pushing his theme that the Repubs have been the obstructionists to everything he’s trying to do. He’ll play the blame card for all its worth.

Penultimately, there’s a Hollywood movie about the Seals raid on Osama in the works, planned to be released in October 2012 (note the timing) that will portray the CinC as a rock-solid patriot totally in command evoking images of Ike, Patton and MacArthur.

And, as one poster mentioned, it’s early yet and there’s always the unexpected. Another 9/11-scenario, in which Americans would become united again, could be enough to get Obama over the hump.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:10am

Don, I wish I shared your optimism on this, but I just don’t. Lord knows, I love Sarah Palin – she was the ONLY reason I voted for McCain in ’08, and I’d happily vote for her again. But I know too many people to whom she should be an appealing candidate who can’t stand her. I just don’t see her winning enough support from waivering independents, and her presence at the top of a GOP ticket would inspire Obama’s currently uninspired base to turn out in droves. And that’s assuming she won the GOP nomination.

With a viable conservative alternative like Perry in the GOP race, Palin’s winning the nomination becomes even more difficult than it already would have been. More likely, Perry and Palin and Bachmann and Paul will so splinter the conservative vote that Romney will win the nomination by default.

That’s the scenario Obama would love to see play out. If that happens, what should be a fairly easy win for a Republican will turn into either a narrow Obama victory, or, worse-case scenario, a very narrow Romney victory that will result in Romney governing like the Rockefeller Republican that he truly is (I honestly see an Obama victory as preferable to that).

At this point, I hope she doesn’t run.

G-Veg
G-Veg
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:13am

Max reminds me that the e-mail dig was supposed to find dirt. Didn’t the MSM enlist the aid of volunteers to dig and analyze.

Did they complete the review and find nothing or are they still digging?

Art Deco
Art Deco
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:45am

Thomas Collins, RR.

Three of the President’s more recent predecessors have had at modest recovery in public esteem at some point or another during the fifteen months or so antedated a stand for re-election, so it is not unusual at all. These recoveries occurred over a period of months in 1948, 1975-76, and 1992. The quarter-to-quarter changes in gross domestic product (expressed at annualized rates) were as follows:

1947 q2: -0.3
1947 q3: +6.2
1947 q4: +6.5
1948 q1: +7.5
1948 q2: +2.2
1948 q3: +0.6
1949 q1: -5.5
1949 q2: -1.4

1975 q2: +3.1
1975 q3: +6.9
1975 q4: +5.3
1976 q1: +9.4
1976 q2: +3.0
1976 q3: +2.0
1976 q4: +2.9
1977 q1: +4.7

1991 q2: +2.7
1991 q3: +1.7
1991 q4: +1.6
1992 q1: +4.5
1992 q2: +4.3
1992 q3: +4.2
1992 q4: +4.3
1992 q1: +0.7

I do not think we will see economic performance this good in the coming year and a half, sad to say. You may have noticed that two of the three individuals in question were voted out of office anyway. If I were employed on the President’s campaign crew, I would not be particularly confident unless the GOP nominated Darth Vader.

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:47am

Polarizing! Obama is the most divisive, class/race-hate generating cad in American History.

Polarizing? Is “polarizing” the obazombie vocabulary word for this week?

Art Deco
Art Deco
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 8:54am

Obama will win in a landslide.

The following have been returned to office in landslides:

Franklin Roosevelt (rapid economic growth, tarnished opposition)
Dwight Eisenhower (broad and durable public esteem, modest economic growth)
Lyndon Johnson (general if brittle public esteem, prosperity)
Richard Nixon (mixed public opinion, prosperity with problems)
Ronald Reagan (improving public esteem & liked by all but partisan Democrats, rapid economic growth)

Which precedent is analogous?

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 9:01am

RR:

If Governor Palin wins, meds wouldn’t be sufficient. You will be in a padded room wearing a straitjacket.

I will be singing “Non Nobis Domine . . .”

Dante alighieri
Admin
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 9:01am

If she enters she has to be considered a front-runner for the nomination. It basically become a three-way bloodbath between Perry, Romney, and Palin. Bachmman’s candidacy would effectively be over. My fear is that Perry and Palin would split enough votes to swing the nomination to Romney.

As for a general, the idea that Obama would win in a landslide is laughable. Yes, Palin’s negatives would make it a close election, and it might turn a few swing states towards Obama. That said, at a minimum Palin or any GOP candidate will win every state McCain won, and at this point Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina would almost certainly return to the red column regardless the GOP nominee.

All that said, I’m more or less with Jay in my preferred outcome at this moment, but there’s a long way to go.

roger a. webb
roger a. webb
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 9:06am

Destiny is an unmovable force. So we will see whose side She is on.

roger a. webb
roger a. webb
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 9:12am

If Palin gets in she will win the nomination by acclimation. By the time Iowa, NH, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida are done it will be so clear what Republicans want the GOP will have no choice.

If the Establishment Good Ole Boys continue to try and manipulate the outcome the Republican Party will be finished.

RR
RR
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 9:55am

Don, okay.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 10:09am

Rove and the rest of the GOP establishment will play divide and conquer like nobody’s business. They will play Perry and Palin (and Bachmann – she still has a significant following) off of one another, planting stories here and there to make it look like they’re backbiting one another. When all is said and done, they WANT Romney and they will have Romney, unless there is a single viable alternative to Romney. As much as I love Sarah, I’m not sure she represents the viable alternative.

By the way, what will be the “theme” of her campaign? Perry has shown us what his theme will be and has shown some discipline in sticking to it, even in the face of all the sharp knives that have been out since his announcement. He is campaigning on jobs and the economy and pointing to his own 10-year record as governor of the 2nd-largest state as an alternative to what Obama has to offer. If the economy and jobs is the focus of the next election, the Republican nominee will win. What will Sarah’s theme be? What record will she run on to point to as an alternative to Obama. At this point, she has less executive experience than he has, which was not the case in’08, when she had more experience than he. If Sarah’s campaign becomes about her (and the Dem and the media will pull out all the stops to make it about her), she will lose. We already had one election in ’08 that was all about the candidate and the precedents that electing him would set – he won and the current state of affairs is the consequence of that. Sarah will need a compelling reason to vote for her over Obama. Perry offers that. Heck, even Romney (as pathetic as he is) offers that. Even Ron Paul, believe it or not, offers that.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure Sarah does. Next year’s election has to be about the economy and jobs and restoring America’s confidence and good name. What does Sarah point to as being her qualifications to do this?

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 10:27am

JA Has it 100%.

The campaign will be about “compare and contrast” four more years robbing Peter to pay Paul to prosperity for all: economic growth and job creation.

The MSM can’t broadcast Obama’s utter failure so it will character assassinate Governor Palin or Governor Perry, or whomever.

DarwinCatholic
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 10:29am

To be honest, I’m hoping that Palin stays out.

She’s an attractive political personality, and I had a lot of hopes for her when got the VP nomination last year, but it seems to me she showed a lot of weakness in quitting the governorship without finishing her first term, and she did honestly fall down badly in unscripted interviews.

I hate saying anything against her, since the Left (and the elitist Right) managed to show some of the most despicable behavior in our political arena in the last 30 years towards here — behavior which shows how truly loathsome a lot of them really are.

But overall I’m just not sure she’d be that good a president. (Better than Obama, but then would would be some yard gnomes.) And I’m concerned she wouldn’t do well in the election.

That said, the GOP field is staggeringly weak. I’m slightly leaning towards Perry but no one has my enthusiasm.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 10:40am

Being a Texan myself, I can’t comprehend what “too Texan” might mean. Is that like having “too much money”? Or “too much love”? Or “car too fast”?

Or “economy too good”? “Too much job creation”?

In ’08, the “rest of the country” chose for President an infantile amateur with no governing experience who likes to make everything all about himself. At this point, even one of them there Texans might look good to the “rest of the country”.

(And, by the way, MOST Texans, including expat Texans like myself, adopt the interpretation of the 1845 treaty of annexation that Gov. Perry put forward. In fact, I adopt the position that the treaty of annexation is completely irrelevant to the question of secession, and that Texas could just tell the “rest of the country” to go to hell and do whatever it wants.)

😉

RL
RL
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:00am

Ditto Darwin. I will add however, that I actually feel some despair about the situation in our country and the world as a whole. The only hope I have for any type turn toward sustainability is for the Republican Party to put forward a candidate with a solid vision, strong convictions that are good. I just don’t see it happening though. I would likely vote for just about anybody the Pubs put it up because the odds of that person being worse than Obama or any other Dem are slim, but holding your nose while you pull the lever does not bring relief to the soul. It’s so cliche to say it, but what need a Reagan type of candidate. Not a clone, not someone who pays lip service to him, not someone who tries to be like him, but just a sharp, decent human being who is unafraid to work for the right thing in spite of all the opposing forces.

Art Deco
Art Deco
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:23am

the GOP field is staggeringly weak

Most of them would be passable in a different set of circumstances (say, 1996). The trouble is the culture in the Republican Party. They are no longer able to talk turkey in any setting.

Art Deco
Art Deco
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:28am

Maybe the Chileans could lend us this fellow:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hernan_Buchi

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:45am

I and almost every other Texan knows what the treaty says. The fact that the notoriously independece-minded Texans didn’t feel the need to explicitly reserve the “right” to secede tells me that it wasn’t even questionable. Of course they could do with regard to the U.S. what they had just done with regard to Mexico.

Apart from Sam Houston, who was a late interloper into the Texas Revolution acting as Andrew Jackson’s stalking horse with the interests of the U.S., as opposed to those of Texas, closest to his heart, I doubt most Texans believed entering into the Union foreclosed future options. And it wasn’t 15 years later that they decided to exercise those options.

As for Texas being a “whole other country”, is it REALLY that different that frickin’ Alaska?

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:47am

And let’s not forget that the Palins have a secession advocacy problem of their own in their past.

sally
sally
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:52am

Wow. For people opposed to the hate shown by the media toward your devout Sarah, there certainly is a lot of hateful speech here toward anyone who doesn’t worship at her stilettos.

Fact: she left Wasilla in debt by building a sports arena on land the city did not own.
Fact: her mansion was built by the same contractors as the arena, with many of the same materials, supposedly by Todd’s ‘buddies.” Mayor Sarah suspended the need for building permits, so no one can find out facts about who, what, or how much.
Fact: Sarah is afraid to be interviewed anywhere but Fox, which feeds her softball questions in advance so she can have her answers in front of her (you can often see the prompter reflected in her glasses.)
Fact: Sarah Palin has nary a good word to say, ever, about the other side. President Obama has done all he can to work with the GOP, to the extent of hurting his initiatives and making himself look bad.
Fact: the people here who support her will dismiss everything I have written, because you have bought her picked upon genius meme. So be it. But Sarah has so many skeletons in her personal and financial closets that I don’t think she wants scrutinized. For example, why is a PAC paying for ‘family vacations’ in a vehicle that costs millions to drive, and then they pay for her hotel rooms as well? Her PAC, which was set up to help candidates of her choice, has spent a teeny amount doing that, and much more on speechwriters (surprise, she never writes what she says, or writes) and personal things for multimillionaure Sarah.
Keep thinking she is your savior: she is not.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 11:59am

I just mention it as evidence of what Texans might have been thinking in 1845. Clearly, slavery played a role (although a much more minor role than left-wing historians would have us believe) in the Texas Revolution. And it was one of the sticking points blocking an earlier agreement on annexation with the U.S. And it was clearly the reason behind secession 15 years later.

There is no way Texas agreed to statehood thinking that they wouldn’t have a future option to secede over the issue of slavery. As ashamed of Texas’ slavery past as I am, that is just the plain intent of the parties based on the facts.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 12:07pm

As for the hero of San Jacinto, you will find that I am a big fan of Sam Houston. “The Raven” is one of my favorite books of all time, albeit fairly poor in the way of objective biography. More recent biographies and histories of the Texas Revolution offer a much more balanced assessment of Sam’s role in the Runaway Scrape and eventual victory at San Jacinto. It appears that Houston’s intent had been to retreat all the way across the Sabine and enlist the aid of U.S. troops to defeat the Mexican army. Much of the credit for the victory goes to Houston’s subordinates who forced Houston’s hand on meeting Santa Ana at Buffalo Bayou.

Jay Anderson
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 12:10pm

Again, Texas would never have entered the Union believing itself barred from acting in what it believed were its interests with respect to slavery. And all I’m saying is that what happened just 15 years later is evidence of that.

ruby
ruby
Sunday, August 21, AD 2011 12:19pm

I hope she runs. She mentioned the blessings of liberty. I connect with that, so do others. To early to predict anything about anyone. I want Obama defeated and sent home.

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