Political Miscellania 10\14\10

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A roundup of recent political news.

1.  O’Donnell-Coons race- Christine O’Donnell takes aim in the above video at the major weakness of Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race:  he does have a history of being in favor of tax increases.  Saturday Night Live mocks O’Donnell’s “I am not a witch” ad here.  Polls show O’Donnell some 16-20 points behind Coons.  In a normal election year I would assume that she had no chance, but this is far from a normal election year.  Additionally Mike Castle had a substantial lead over O’Donnell in the polls until a few days before she beat him in the Delaware primary.

A debate was held between O’Donnell and Coons last night, and I thought she did quite well against Coons who came across to me as answering questions in a rote and highly programmed manner.  It was O’Donnell against not only Coons but also against Wolf Blitzer and a local reporter, both of whom should have been wearing “Coons for Senate’ buttons so palpable was their bias, and  she more than held her own against this 3-1 tagteam.

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Unfortunately since it was broadcast only on C-Span and CNN, it was probably watched only by political junkies and people who hadn’t changed the batteries in their remotes.

Jackie Mason weighs in on criticism of O’Donnell in his own unique kvetching style:

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2.  GOP Will Gain 60-70 seats in the House-Now what right wing rag made that prediction?  Oh, the Huffington Post!

  • President Obama’s approval rating is hurting Democrats across the country. According to Real Clear Politics’ average of public polls, Obama’s approval rating now stands at approximately 45%. Our analysis of national surveys suggests that Obama’s approval rating is closer to 42-43% with likely voters. More importantly, the President’s approval rating in key swing states that Obama and fellow Democrats won in 2008 is faltering. In Colorado, for example, Obama won 54% of the vote but no recent poll shows his approval rating higher than 45% with likely voters. That is one of the reasons that incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is in serious trouble. Or take Pennsylvania, where an average of the last five polls has Obama’s approval rating at 40%: Republican Pat Toomey leads Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak by six points. The pattern is consistent: almost every state where Obama’s approval rating is at or below 45% the GOP candidate is leading by 3-10 points.
  • The GOP lead on the generic Congressional ballot is unprecedented. Republicans now lead on the generic Congressional ballot by seven points (48% to 41%) according to RCP. Our analysis of likely voter surveys taken over the last 30 days has the GOP lead at +9. As we have said before, Republicans rarely–if ever–lead on the GCB. According to Gallup, in 1994 the two parties were tied on the GCB the week before the election. Republicans picked up 54 seats that year.
  • Congressional approval is catastrophically low and Democrats–not Republicans–will pay the price. Congressional approval is at 20% (according to the last Pew Poll). The last WSJ/NBC poll also had it at 20% (with 75% disapproval).
  • In terms of election “engagement,” Republicans far outpace Democrats this year. According to last month’s Pew study, 79% of Republican candidate supporters say they definitely will vote for their preferred candidate, while only 66 percent of Democratic candidate supporters say the same. Just as importantly, the same poll tells us that 64% of Republicans are “giving a lot of thought” to this election, compared with only 40% of Democrats. This gives the GOP a +24 margin. To give you some perspective, in 1994 the GOP had a +9 lead on this measure (51% to 49%).
  • Anger about the economy and the lack of jobs remains this election’s defining element. The LCG Anger Index is increasing as we move closer to election day. The current index stands at 261. It was 246 in May of this year, and in 1994 it was 245.

Go here to read the entire article.

3.  Veteran Democrats in trouble. A number of Democrat veterans who have been in Congress for decades now find themselves in tight races:

Nervous Democrats are cognizant that many long-term incumbents up for re-election in ’94 ultimately fell, including 42-year Democratic Rep. Jack Brooks of Texas, who chaired the Judiciary Committee and outspent his GOP opponent four to one. Everyone knows House Armed Services Chair Ike Skelton (MO-04) and House Budget Chair John SprattM (SC-05) have topped the NRCC’s target lists all year, but now new GOP polls show House Transportation Chair Jim Oberstar (MN-08) and Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in danger.

John Dingle who has been in Congress for an astounding 55 years, is trailing his Republican opponent by four points in a recent poll.

4.  George Soros and the Republican avalanche. The paymaster for various Leftist organizations, billionaire George Soros, is sitting this one out.

“I made an exception getting involved in 2004,” Mr. Soros, 80, said in a brief interview Friday at a forum sponsored by the Bretton Woods Committee, which promotes understanding of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

“And since I didn’t succeed in 2004, I remained engaged in 2006 and 2008. But I’m basically not a party man. I’d just been forced into that situation by what I considered the excesses of the Bush administration.”

Mr. Soros, a champion of liberal causes, has been directing his money to groups that work on health care and the environment, rather than electoral politics. Asked if the prospect of Republican control of one or both houses of Congress concerned him, he said: “It does, because I think they are pushing the wrong policies, but I’m not in a position to stop it. I don’t believe in standing in the way of an avalanche.”

5.  Well if Joes says it-Veep and beloved national clown Biden has guaranteed that the Democrats will retain majorities in the House and the Senate. Ok Joe, I believe you, but maybe we’ll go through the motions anyway.

31 Responses to Political Miscellania 10\14\10

  • From Gateway Pundit:

    Ms. O’Donnell said, “I would argue that more people would support my Catholic beliefs than his Marxist beliefs.”

    Gateway: “No wonder the state-run media hates her. She keeps bringing up the facts that they do not want disclosed.

    “Wow!

    “Coons then lied about his “Bearded Marxist” essay. He said it was satire when clearly it was not.”

    “The Caucus reported:

    “‘A feisty, aggressive Ms. O’Donnell called Mr. Coons a Marxist whose beliefs came from a socialist professor and said he would “rubber stamp” the policies of the Democrats in Washington. Mr. Coons raised questions about whether Ms. O’Donnell’s faith would drive her positions on social issues like abortion, prayer and evolution.’”

    In other words he said, Faithful Catholics shouldn’t be elected. Like: “Irish need not apply.”

    I’d vote for her in a heartbeat.

    PS: Keep moderating my comments. Every so often I feel the need to let you know what I really think.

  • I hope the GOP is gunning for 100 seats in the House and 13 in the Senate. Nov. 2/3 are going to be fun!!

  • Raising taxes is Marxist!

    LOL.

  • What are your thoughts on the GOP getting the Senate? What I read at the NYT’s blog (the only one I’ve been following) says GOP a little short at 47-48, with 50 in a best case scenario, but I don’t know if you’ve seen info to make you think differently.

  • based on everything I’ve seen, here’s how it looks for the Senate pickups-

    Mortal locks: North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas
    Close to mortal lock: Pennsylvania
    Very likely: Wisconsin, West Virginia

    So that’s six that are just about sure things. Real Clear Politics also have Buck in CO and Angle in NV in the pickup category, but those are closer. But I think both will win.

    That basically means the GOP has to pick up two of the following: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New York (Gillebrand), and Washington. DE and NY are probably going to be held, and I’m starting to thing Fiorina is a longshot in CA. That one, though, might hinge to some degree on the governor’s race. I think Rossi pulls it out in WA, leaving CT and IL as the key races. Don and Elaine might have some better idea about the IL race, but I have no idea. Blumenthal probably wins in CT, but that is going to come down the wire.

    So I see a minimum 9 seat pickup, leaving it at 50/50, with technical control by the Dems because of Biden. (I should note that no GOP seat is really in any danger. The closest is Paul in Kentucky, and he’s up 6). Right now I lean towards the GOp picking up that 51st seat.

    As for the House, I don’t even think anyone remotely believes the Dems will retain control The question is really just a matter of how large the GOP majority will be. The way things are going it looks like the only safe Dem seat is going to be the one in my district with Van Hollen, naturally.

  • Paul:

    Thanks, that helps a lot.

  • Of course “GOP” control in the Senate does not necessarily translate into legislation you may want to see (or see reversed), as long as RINOs remain.

  • As a registered Republican, I wish I could say that I would be happy if the GOP re-took the legislature. But on what could I base such hopefulness?

    Oh joy, the top marginal tax rate will drop by 3%. Yay.

    Meanwhile, poor and working people of faith will be expected to stay on the GOP plantation like good little house crackers while homosexual marriage and federally-funded abortion are rammed down our throats and we’re forced to send our kids to be educated in the secular cesspool that is modern Fox Media culture. I’m so excited.

  • One addendum: I should probably put West Virginia in the same category as Nevada and Colorado. It’s a little tighter than I thought.

  • Unexpectedly, new unemployment insurance claims were reported at 462,000 (above the 455,000 dem propaganda media expectation).

    Added Obamonomics bonus: the inflation rate (including food and fuel you must have to live) is 4.8% annualized.

    Misey Index: 14.4 (9.6 + 4.8).

    I would argue that more people support economic opportunity and prosperity than dem/socialist myths.

  • But, at least the GOP will hopefully stop Obama’s assault on America. If the GOP can stop another huge bill from being passed like Obamacare was, then I’ll be happy for now.

  • I predict the GOP will take the Senate by flipping the following seats: Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Washington, Illinois and Colorado. That will give them 51. I also predict that Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans and that Ben Nelson will switch parties. There may be more Democrat switchers. This election is going to be a cataclysm for the Democrats, especially after they achieved what many of them perceived as political dominance for the foreseeable future in 2008, and some Democrat office holders are going to decide that it is better to switch than fight in 2012.

  • Re IL Senate race: I think it will go to the GOP but not by much, due to the fact that Mark Kirk is about as RINO as they come, plus he has run a rather lousy campaign marked by repeated gaffes and misstatements/lies about his voting record and even his military record. He is about as inspiring as a wet noodle IMHO, but if the alternative is “mob banker” and lib Dem/Obama buddy Alexi Giannoulias, some (not all) GOP voters may be able to hold their noses long enough to vote for him.

  • As usual I agree with my colleague from the Land of Lincoln. The pro-abort Rino Kirk has been running an atrocious campaign, but running against a mobbed up banker, Kirk will win it, barely. I will not vote for Kirk however. I will leave that space blank on my ballot.

  • Ach. There are three competitive U.S. House races in the broadcast zone of my local television stations. These characters + my local state Senator + Andrew Cuomo and all the ads are repulsive. The only one making an attempt to present herself as something resembling a human being is Tracy Flick Kirsten Gillibrand. I think I have found a solution.

  • Will she tell us Glenn and Bill are commies?

  • I don’t know Karlson, did they ever call themselves Bearded Marxists? O’Donnell’s point, which obviously sailed right by you, is that what is laughingly referred to as the mainstream media keeps harping on witchcraft with her, while giving her opponent a complete pass on his self-description of becoming a Bearded Marxist while in college. She is of course correct on this. Note Wolfe Blitzer “helpfully”, when she brings up the subject, asking Coons about it and saying that it was “a long time ago”, being completely unconscious that O’Donnell’s reference to witchcraft was in 1999 and referred to her teen years, also a very long time ago, and after attempting to body slam O’Donnell for a comment she made on evolution 12 years before.

  • Well, Karlson, maybe the deficit would be down if the “poor” who aren’t so poor here in America in comparison to third world countries paid there “fair” share of taxes instead of being funded by the taxpayers so they can buy fancy jewelry and other luxury items? I think everyone in America should pay there fair share of taxes ( including the poor) and just maybe we’ll get the deficit under control.

  • But, at least the GOP will hopefully stop Obama’s assault on America. If the GOP can stop another huge bill from being passed like Obamacare was, then I’ll be happy for now.

    Well, we might have some harmony and concord here. For me, if we have to go the next two years with no substantial social progress, it is worth it given we now have health care reform.

    Add to that the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection bill, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the bill controlling Credit Card companies cheating consumers, student loan reform, and DC Budget Automony — none, including health care reform, whch will be repealed — I’m not too worried about a two year rest.

  • “There are three competitive U.S. House races in the broadcast zone of my local television stations”

    This is one time of year when I am eternally grateful that I no longer have a TV and just watch everything online — I am spared the constant barrage of political ads that tube watchers suffer through. Yes, there are political ads online and I do see them quite often but they aren’t nearly as annoying or obtrusive. (FWIW, the political ad I see most frequently online is for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady. Whether that’s due to his targeting the online audience, the fact that I gravitate to more news-oriented and conservative blogs, or both, I can’t say.)

    Normally I only watch TV when I am somewhere like a doctor’s office, oil change place, etc. where there happens to be a TV on. The day before the Illinois primary in February I happened to be in one of those places for about 2 hours. The incessant pummelling of political ads just about drove me nuts.

  • “Well, we might have some harmony and concord here. For me, if we have to go the next two years with no substantial social progress, it is worth it given we now have health care reform.”

    Apparently someone still believes in the tooth fairy. :)

    That aside, it would be interesting to know how Kurt believes those things mentioned are necessarily “social progress.”

  • We need to keep this fresh in everybody’s mind until Nov. The justice and peace cadre thinks we peasants will forget about it by Nov.

    Let’s prove them wrong.

    THE SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION IS FUNDING TWENTY FOUR MILLION DOLLARS–LET ME REPEAT THAT AMOUNT…*

    24,000,000 DOLLARS

    SO YOU UNDERSTAND IT $24,000,000.00 DOLLARS FOR NEW ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS PROCESSING FOR YOUR CONGRESSMEN** AND SENATORS !!**

    THEY ARE OBTAINING THESE FUNDS . . .

    QUOTE DIRECTLY FROM THE SOCIAL SECURITY WEBSITE… “THIS MONEY WILL BE COMING FROM THE SAVINGS TO BE GENERATED FROM WITHHOLDING “COST OF LIVING INCREASES FOR 2010 & 2011 IN SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS FOR THE ELDERLY AND A $2.00 INCREASE ON ALL MEDICARE RX BENEFIT CO-PAY”

  • I guess the one good thing about living in the People’s Republic of Maryland and the absence of competitive elections is that I am not inundated with ads as is Art. The only thing getting any play is the Ehrlich-O’Malley race.

  • Donald

    When she explains what communism is, it’s “raising taxes.” Seriously. Glenn Beck is a commie! Who knew?

  • No Karlson what she was doing was mentioning that one of the “Marxist beliefs” of Mr. Coons is his affinity for raising taxes which elides into her theme that he is a tax raiser. Once again, however, her main point was the rank hypocrisy of attacking her for the witchcraft remark and giving Coons a complete pass on his Bearded Marxist self-description.

  • Add to that the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection bill, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the bill controlling Credit Card companies cheating consumers, student loan reform, and DC Budget Automony — none, including health care reform, whch will be repealed — I’m not too worried about a two year rest.

    Of which component of the Democratic Party are you on the payroll?

  • I would not mind the ads, Paul. But most of them are of the ‘my opponent tortures puppies’ variety. The Republican ads do tend to focus more on legislative votes than personal history, so the unpleasantness is not uniform.

  • Yeah, the few ads I have seen are by O’Malley, and they’re all just pretty much of the “Bob Ehrlich wants you to suffer and die” variety. In fact, between this election and the 2006 election I don’t think I have seen one positive ad for either Governor O’Malley or Senator Cardin. Unfortunately I also get the Virginia ads as well, and least year I got to hear all about how Bob McDonnell was going to enlist the Taliban to aid his administration. As you say, the unpleasantness has not been uniform as both McDonnell and Ehrlich are able to actually say what they want to do.

  • As usual (is this thing on?) I look forward to not voting for a single candidate from my own party, a lot of write-ins and perhaps checking the box for a few Constitution Party candidates.

    The Consumer Protection and Financial blah blah blah Act…heh, that was a good one. I hear Helicopter Ben plans on dropping another stadium full of greenbacks onto the peasants pretty soon, to make sure inflation goes up as quickly as possible.

    Cahn’t have food and energy prices going too low now, cahn we?

  • The Social Security administration is funding $24,000,000 dollars”

    Before you get all panicked about that, check out this link:

    http://www.snopes.com/politics/socialsecurity/cola.asp

    Long story short: the $24 million in question is NOT — repeat, IS NOT — coming from withholding Social Security COLAs. It’s coming from stimulus funds. The “withholding” of the Social Security COLA is due to the fact that it is tied to the rate of inflation and other factors and those factors did not compute an increase being necessary for this year.

  • Elaine, et al,

    I know! The situation is more tragic, and our politician/ostriches have their collective heads in the sand.

    The $24MM is an infinitessimal part of the $1.4 trillion ($1.2 trillion last year) 2011 federal deficit.

    Robert’s Rule, Point of information: the fed gov has spent almost all the surplus $$$$ that we the people paid into the SS Trust Fund; and replaced it with IOU’s (non-public US Treasury debt instruments). All taxpayers will need to poney up general fund taxes to repay to the SS Trust Fund so it can pay benefits when (in a precious few years) the SS tax receipts are less than the current benefits obligation payables due to the rapidly expanding 65-plus portion of the population.

    Or else, Ben Bernanke will have to print $50 trillion in crisp $1 million bills (Michelle’s face on the front) to pay poor, old pensioners. Our Chinese financiers will NOT like that. They may foreclose . . .

    Linus, help me out here!

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