The Truth About China

No point – they are about to enter terminal demographic decline. Why learn what will one day be a dead language?

Oh Yay! It will be the 1930s all over again. I wonder which world powers will get dragged into it this time?

Chinese culture is very similar to ancient Roman culture.

People called themselves Roman in Anatolia, but they were a mixture of Greek and Persian.

Same with the Chinese.

There may be a “Han” majority, but within the Han are various cultural and linguistic groups that do not share the same views as other “Chinese”.

Don’t forget “China” is a very diverse country.

They are made up of not only the Han, but Mongols, Manchurians, Turks, Cantonese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Tibetans, so on and so forth.

You think they have demographic problems now, wait until the minority groups start getting agitated.

Only the Red Army is keeping it under wraps, not capitalism.

The Tiananmen Square masaquere is only a prelude of what is to come.

As for Taiwan, the U.S. will ensure they remain and independent and free state before China thinks twice of invading.

Chinese ambition doesn’t stop at Taiwan.

They want the remainder of Mongolia, parts of India and Vietnam and the great Russian Far East.

Not to mention a “Warsaw Pact” type of subservitude of Vietnam, South Korea (North Korea is a few breaths away of being absorbed by China before South Korea will), Bhutan, Nepal, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

By the end of the 21st century I wouldn’t be surprised that those “Warsaw Pact” nations would eventually form a customs and cultural union similar to the European Union, but with China as “First Among Equals”.

Then look out India, Australia, and Russia, it’ll be like the 1930s European powers Great Game, but with China as an imperial power and the three mentioned being carved up into sphere’s of influence.

Cathy,

I am sure David wasn’t endorsing Communist China.

But his comments are confusing, especially for a government that has suppressed the Catholic Church, committed genocide against their own people, and many, many more human rights abuses that would make even Adolph Hitler cringe (for only a brief moment).

Tito,

Han Chinese make up 92% of the population of China. Much of the rest is Tibetan and Uighur. There is linguistic variation, but not much ethnic variation bar in (sparsely populated) Tibet and Turkesatan.

Other than their intervention in Korea in 1952-53, the Chinese military has limited its warfare to border skirmishes with VietNam and India.

Parts of India have been undergoing rapid economic development and agencies which produce demographic projections forecast that it will reach a static population higher than China’s, without the attendant unbalanced age structure or sex ratio. I do not think India is going to be easy meat for China’s military.

They have left Taiwan alone for fifty years, so I tend to think it will be a while before they develop the naval force and ambition to conquer Australia.

As for Taiwan, the U.S. will ensure they remain and independent and free state before China thinks twice of invading.

It’s nice to think that, but I can’t say I see that desire in our government. We’ll pay lip service to it, but if push comes to shove we’ll roll over. We let the free Chinese down once in the last century and we know from our conflicts in Asia that there never was much interest in confronting China. I can’t see the US getting pulled into a war with a huge trading partner that has been accorded MFN status over a distant island nation (that has been becoming less important by the year).

I second Tito and Cathy. Forced abortion and oppression of the Church doesn’t sound like the sort of place for a Catholic to be.

RL, it’s not likely. There’s no shortage of unapproved Masses celebrated with Rome’s blessing. And how many foreigners outside of Chinese prisons have had forced abortions? Have any commenters actually visited Shanghai or Hong Kong?

China’s growth over the past few decades has been impressive. On the other hand, it started at such a low point that achieving high levels of growth is less an achievement than a condemnation of prior policies. China is still a poor country (poorer than El Salvador) and because of the one child policy it is going to face the demographic transition problem before it has gotten anywhere as rich as the other developed nations.

In terms of learning another language, whether or not China continues to do well I don’t think it will be necessary for people here to learn Chinese, as the Chinese will speak English. In fact, I suspect that at some point in the future everyone on earth will speak the same language, and that language will be English with an Asian accent.

and that language will be English with an Asian accent.

Or perhaps an Indian accent? Like tech support?

Or perhaps an Indian accent?

India *is* part of Asia.

BA,

True, though that’s not normally what people mean by “English with an Asian accent”…

Paul,

Given that Kurt works for Big Labor…

ATLANTIC – Open Letter in China Calls for Free Speech
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Open-Letter-in-China-Calls-for-Free-Speech-5370

David,

Much can be learned by studying Lenin, too…but not much of any worth.

China is an immensely backward nation where most of the population lives in grinding poverty…they’ve put up a few bright lights in Shanghai and Peking to bamboozle the world, but that isn’t what China is really like for the broad mass of the Chinese population. Their economy is a hot-house forced in to existence by government fiat – they are building empty cities and blowing up new buildings so they can replace them with ever larger white elephants. They are honeycombed with bad debt and sunk in to a morass of corruption. It looks good if you only pay attention to Chinese government statistics and the propaganda of Western businesses who have bet the farm on China, but the reality is pretty bad. It will come crashing down – probably fairly soon; withing the next couple years, at the outside.

The larger problem with China is that the Ruling Class there thinks itself successful and is now preparing a bid for dominance – at least of east Asia, if not of the world. The best way to think of China in 2010 is to think of Germany in 1910…both nations of apparent prosperity actually staggering under an unsustainable economic model; both with burgeoning military power; both confronted with primary rivals looked upon as weak and in decline. It is almost a certainty that China will attack – probably right as things start to fall apart in the economic sphere and the government needs an excuse to maintain control.

Such an attack will be an impertinence only slightly less staggering than the Japanese attack on us in 1941 – but that won’t stop it from being a long and bloody war. And the pity of it is that we could still, even now, prevent it…if we had a government which wasn’t addicted to Chinese bond purchases; if we had a government which also understood how to use diplomacy.

But even with all that, China is a doomed nation – I don’t see how they recover from their coming demographic disaster unless they are quite rapidly converted to Christianity. Absent such a sea-change in Chinese attitudes, they are doomed.

The Case for America’s Future by Gary North
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north893.html

“It is easy to make a case for east Asia’s economic success, but only over the next two decades. East Asia’s economies are growing because their economies are being freed by decisions by politicians to reduce government regulations. But they all have two major problems: (1) the extreme boy/girl birth ratio of at least 120 to 100; (2) the threat of a rapidly aging population after 2025 or 2030. Economist Nick Eberstadt has been writing about this for a decade.

Japan will hit the demographic brick wall first. It probably has already hit it. South Korea faces the threat, but it has a developed economy. The largest Asian nations – China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan – are not yet first world nations. Even at high economic growth rates, they will have trouble becoming first world nations by the time their ageing populations force a social crisis: the care and feeding of oldsters, especially old men who never married and who have no sons to support them…”

Paul and DC,

Well, to deny the Chamber of Commerce is using foreign corporate money is to deny te legitimacy of the Mexico City Policy.

Well, to deny the Chamber of Commerce is using foreign corporate money is to deny te legitimacy of the Mexico City Policy.

Ummm, what?

Even if the story were true, and so far it appears you are the only person in America that has actually bought the story, it is: a) irrelevant and b) kind of hypocritical considering some of the, ummm, interesting fund-raising sources of Obama’s in the 2008 election.

There are many reasons for the Church to be in China. I’ve blogged about them here (search “China”)and have much hope for the people of China. Come and see.