Thursday, October 7, AD 2010
The above video by Ben Howe neatly encapsulates why the Democrats are going to take a historic beating next month. If a politician runs on a platform of Hope and Change he better deliver plenty of both. Obama has delivered despair and a magnification of the trends that got us into the economic and fiscal morass we are in. No one likes to be the mark of a con, and I think that a majority of voters now are firmly convinced that a massive con was played on the nation in 2008.
Josh Kraushaar at Hotline gives us a peek of the electoral storm that is in the process of being unleashed:
But when you look at the national polling metrics and the race-by-race picture in the House, there’s little evidence of any Democratic comeback. If anything, Republicans are in as strong a position to win back control of the House as they have been this entire election cycle.
Much of the newfound glimmer of hope comes from a misinterpretation of polling data released by Democratic campaigns and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Many of the polls aren’t all that encouraging for Dems, but have been spun to present a misleadingly optimistic picture.
In a House race, where many voters are unfamiliar with challengers until the very end, it’s not nearly as instructive to look at who’s winning as it is to see whether the incumbent is winning a majority of the vote. Traditionally, most of the undecided vote breaks toward the challenger — especially in a wave election. It’s not uncommon for a congressman to be up “double digits” but still be in serious trouble, given the anonymity of the opponent.
And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.
That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost — a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn’t yet been released, it’s very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.
The playing field is so large this year that it’s misleading to look at any one race to draw firm conclusions about the state of play across the country. Democrats are playing a high-stakes game of “Whack-A-Mole” — even when they successfully disqualify weak GOP challengers, another half-dozen races pop up on their radar screen.
Go here to read the rest.