Republicans Enjoy Largest Lead Ever in Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot

In yet another sign of looming disaster in November for the Democrats, the Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot poll this week is showing the Republicans six points ahead this week, 49%-43%.

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences shows Republicans moving back ahead of Democrats, 49% to 43%, by two points their largest lead of the campaign to date. Registered voters’ preferences had been closely divided for the last several weeks.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted May 24-30. Republicans’ largest advantage on the generic ballot prior to now was four points during the week of April 5-11. The GOP held a three-point advantage the week of April 12-18.

The shift from a more competitive race to a Republican lead occurred the same week President Barack Obama averaged a 46% job approval rating, his lowest weekly average to date.

Two structural changes in the data help explain the shift. First, while the percentage of registered voters identifying as Republicans has been consistent over the past several weeks, during the last week there was a decline in the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats and an increase in independent identifiers.

A few things to note about this:

1.  This is a poll of registered voters.  Democrats are normally stronger in polls of registered voters, while Republicans do better in polls of likely voters.

2.  The six point lead for the Republicans is the largest that Gallup has ever recorded for the Republicans since Gallup began doing this poll in 1950.

3.  The enthusiasm gap between the Republicans and the Democrats over the election is 15 points against the Democrats which is absolutely devastating for the Democrats.

4.  We are starting to get late in the year for good news for the nation to have a substantial impact on the elections and aid the Democrats, as political positions are hardening.  Additionally, I frankly find it hard, unfortunately, to discern any good news for the nation on the horizon.

5.  Confidence in Congress is at an all time low.  William F. Buckley used to joke that he would prefer to be governed by names drawn at random from a phone book than the faculty of Harvard.  In a poll last week Rasmussen found that 41% of the public believe that a Congress drawn at random from phone books could do a better job than our current Congress.

Bleak news for the party in power.

8 Responses to Republicans Enjoy Largest Lead Ever in Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot

  • I think that speaks to the fact, that’s gotten out even despite left wing media censorship, that Obama is even worse than Carter, the erstwhile worst POTUS in history.

    He is incompetent and totally unprepared for the job, as is the sum total the elitist, liberal governing class.

    Or, all is going according to the plan: destruction of the evil, racist Gulf Coast.

  • Blago’s Circus (the Rod Blagojevich corruption trial now beginning in Chicago) probably won’t help Dems’ image either. I believe Politico rated it as one of five potential or developing stories this summer that could significantly impact the November elections.

    If Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett, Roland Burris, Harry Reid and others get called upon to testify in Blago’s defense (and that’s still a VERY big if), even if they themselves did nothing wrong, the sound bites/video clips of them marching to and from the courthouse can only leave a bad impression on voters.

    Due to the embarrassment this will cause Illinois residents for the next 4 months or so, I may just pretend to be from another state for the duration :-)

  • “Due to the embarrassment this will cause Illinois residents for the next 4 months or so, I may just pretend to be from another state for the duration.”

    I agree Elaine. I will be Indiana Don for the duration! :)

  • Good one Don.

    Goes well with Indiana Jones :-)

  • And I’m not afraid of snakes Don! :)

  • Elaine and Donald, whenever I am tempted to feel even slightly superior toward my Land of Lincoln neighbors, I remember my Congresscritter – and cringe:

    http://www.rightsideoftheroad.com/2006/01/gwen-moores-criminal-family.html

    Really, though, I think that if Old Abe is in Heaven right now, he is blissfully content – and thus knows nothing of current Springfield and Chicago goings-on. If he’s in Purgatory for reasons we do not know, well, his penance is that he gets filled in on Blago and Company from time to time. ;-) Knowledge of the current political goings-on in his beloved state would, I believe, be more painful for Lincoln than any of the torments described by Dante!

  • I wonder if the maximum sentence of 415 years which Blago could (theoretically) receive if found guilty on all 24 counts, includes projected time in purgatory? ;-) That would be far preferable, of course, to the fate Dante assigned to corrupt politicians in The Inferno — spending eternity immersed in a river of boiling tar.

  • Michael Voris should name the enemies within and without the Church. What criteria does he use to determine who is and who is not the enemy of the People of God?

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