Thursday, June 3, AD 2010
In yet another sign of looming disaster in November for the Democrats, the Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot poll this week is showing the Republicans six points ahead this week, 49%-43%.
PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences shows Republicans moving back ahead of Democrats, 49% to 43%, by two points their largest lead of the campaign to date. Registered voters’ preferences had been closely divided for the last several weeks.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted May 24-30. Republicans’ largest advantage on the generic ballot prior to now was four points during the week of April 5-11. The GOP held a three-point advantage the week of April 12-18.
The shift from a more competitive race to a Republican lead occurred the same week President Barack Obama averaged a 46% job approval rating, his lowest weekly average to date.
Two structural changes in the data help explain the shift. First, while the percentage of registered voters identifying as Republicans has been consistent over the past several weeks, during the last week there was a decline in the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats and an increase in independent identifiers.
A few things to note about this:
1. This is a poll of registered voters. Democrats are normally stronger in polls of registered voters, while Republicans do better in polls of likely voters.
2. The six point lead for the Republicans is the largest that Gallup has ever recorded for the Republicans since Gallup began doing this poll in 1950.
3. The enthusiasm gap between the Republicans and the Democrats over the election is 15 points against the Democrats which is absolutely devastating for the Democrats.
4. We are starting to get late in the year for good news for the nation to have a substantial impact on the elections and aid the Democrats, as political positions are hardening. Additionally, I frankly find it hard, unfortunately, to discern any good news for the nation on the horizon.
5. Confidence in Congress is at an all time low. William F. Buckley used to joke that he would prefer to be governed by names drawn at random from a phone book than the faculty of Harvard. In a poll last week Rasmussen found that 41% of the public believe that a Congress drawn at random from phone books could do a better job than our current Congress.
Bleak news for the party in power.