Predictions
For political junkies like me, tomorrow begins the political season for 2010 with gubernatorial elections in Virginia, New Jersey and the special congressional election in New York 23. There is also a special congressional election in California 10, but that is in the San Francisco metro area and everyone, except for the Republican running, David Harmer, believes that is going to be won by the Democrat, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, and I join in that consensus, although I suspect it might be surprisingly close.
In regard to the three competitive races, here are my predictions:
Virginia: McDonnell (R) 57%-Deeds (D) 43%
New Jersey: Christie (R) 45% -Corzine (D) 42-% Daggett (I) 13%
New York 23: Hoffman (Con.) 51% -Owens 43%-Scozzafava (R) 6% (Scozzafava has withdrawn, and endorsed the Democrat, but I give her 6% due to absentee ballots and bitter end support that doesn’t like Hoffman but will not vote for a Democrat.)
Please place your predictions in the combox. The most accurate predictions will have a verbal slap on the back, and the warm glow of victory!
A good site for political junkies to keep track of political races is The Hedgehog Report.
Update: Election results:
Virginia: McDonnell (R) 58.64%- Deeds (D) 41.23%
New Jersey: Christie (R) 48.4%-Corzine (D) 44.6%_Daggett (I) 5.7%
New York 23: Hoffman (Con.) 45%- Owens (D) 49%-Scozzafava (R) 6%
16 Responses to Predictions
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I think McDonnell will certainly win in VA, and I’ll bet Hoffman does too, but NJ I am not so sure about. They sure seem to love incompetent state government there. I wouldn’t be shocked if Corzine manages to win by a hair. But even that would be good news for conservatives. NJ is a deep blue state. The very fact that Corzine had to struggle and The One had to go there and campaign for him is a bad omen for the Dems.
I’m with Donna V., but probably more confident that Christie will pull it off. Our Dear Leader may have overstated his (manufactured) gravitas and used up whatever charismatic potion he had for a Corzine push.
As Mister Rogers would say…
It’s a wonderful in the neighborhood, it’s…
I live in New York, work in New Jersey and I sure hope you are on the money.
For what it’s worth, Intrade gives Hoffman about a 65% chance of winning, and McDonnell a 98% chance. New Jersey is split roughly 50/50, but with a slight edge to Corzine.
McDonnell is a lock, and that 57-43 split sounds about right. I think Hoffman also pulls it out, probably in a bit of a squeaker. I am not sure about NJ, but I have a sinking feeling Corzine pulls it out.
Ditto Paul Zummo’s prediction…
I’ll join the chorus, pretty solid except for NJ, that one is too close to call as far as I can tell.
Concur with the consensus. McDonnell will win easily. Hoffman will win fairly easily. Christie will win on election day, but it will be close enough that the Dem’s will Franken the results. To Franken the results means to keep counting (magically finding Dem votes) until you get the results you want.
To Franken the results means to keep counting (magically finding Dem votes) until you get the results you want.
How does Franken (v.) differ from Gore (v.)?
Edward G. Robinson explains Democrat recount strategy!
Rich:
When you Franken the vote, you win. When you Gore the vote, you lose and then spend the rest of your life saying “I wuz robbed!”
McDonnell 55%, Deeds 43%
Corzine 43%, Christie 42%, Daggett 11% (won’t be decided until at least sometime Wednesday)
Owens 48%, Hoffman 46%, Scozzafava 4% (NY-23 isn’t THAT conservative and I would think voters there would realize that)
These off-year elections are very tough to predict because turnout is usually low. It’s often less about how well you win over the independents and undecideds than how good a job you do of making sure your base gets to the polls. McDonnell will win VA in a landslide, but the other two are tossups.
Owens 48%, Hoffman 46%, Scozzafava 4% (NY-23 isn’t THAT conservative and I would think voters there would realize that)
??? I think the voters there know how conservative they are or are not. They haven’t elected a democrat since 1870, it seems the latest poll indicates they aren’t starting this year either.
Republicans will win. Not much will change.
Apparently they are not that conservative and they have elected a Democrat.
Two out of three, not bad Donald =)