Those 'Fishy' Polls
If you’ve been watching only the network newscasts and CNN and MSNBC as well as reading only the New York Times, Washington Post, and the Boston Globe you would think that the U.S. presidency was all but a done deal for Senator Barack Obama to win the White House. Poll after poll shows Senator Obama with 10, 11, and 12 point leads over Senator John McCain. With traditional red states like Virginian and North Carolina showing Senator Obama with leads of up to eight (8) points McCain supporters should be worried.
I’m not. And I’m voting for the McCain/Palin ticket.
When I see Senator Obama with an almost nine point lead over Senator McCain in Virginia, something begins to smell. So I’ve been reading and rereading how many of these polls are conducted and I’ve come away unimpressed with their analysis.
We’ve all heard that because of the first American with an African heritage is running for the presidency on a major party ticket. Add to that that the first Republican woman is running for the vice presidency on the other major party ticket then what we are looking at is a transformational election race. The very word, tranformational that many political pundits and stars, most recently former Secretary of State Colin Powell used, says changes the dynamics of the race. These changes include how polling data is collected.
Because of the new variables in this race there is a ‘paradigm shift’ in the electorate. Senator Obama has inspired the young to vote and many that have never voted to vote for the first time. Because of Senator Obama’s transformational candidacy, and upsurge of Americans of African heritage are coming out in record numbers to register to vote.
We’ve heard all this before. And I’m calling out Baloney on all of this. Remember the Internet boom of the late 1990′s? When people were declaring the business model had undergone a transformational and paradigm shift? Well seems like the mainstream media has fallen hard for Senator Obama hook, line, and sinker and wants you to believe it as well by conveying this message through polls.
Most of the polls that show Senator Obama with five (5) or more point leads change their polling demographic group day to day. Since Senator Obama’s candidacy has ushered in a new dawn in American politics the pundits and pollsters insist that how they collect this polling data must also change. This would explain the wide variances between and among polls.
You see the polling outfits can’t figure out the correct demographic polling group and they insist that they are allowed to change until they figure out the right mix. To me it seems the only mix that matters is that of an Obama lead of ten points or more. This is unprofessional and undercuts the polling firms reputation. So the polls themselves tend to pick as their polling data more Democrats than Republicans and more favorable demographic groups towards Senator Obama.
The other reason why I’m optimistic of a McCain/Palin victory is that many liberals and moderates that voted for Hillary are politely telling their circle of friends and the polls that they’re voting for Senator Obama. Though they either remain bitter over Senator Obama’s campaign tactics or haven’t been convinced to vote for him, they actually are leaning towards Senator McCain but not telling anyone since they’ll be branded a ‘racist’. You could say this is the reversal of the Bradley Effect.
What is this ‘reversal’? If you’re surrounded by neighbors that are emotionally attached to Senator Obama you know you need to keep your secret leanings for the McCain/Palin ticket under wraps. I call these folks crypto-Cain’s. They show visible signs of being liberal, yet they themselves will vote for McCain but only they know the truth. These Obama supporters will key your car if you have a McCain bumper sticker or tear down your McCain lawn sign in the middle of the night. Nobody wants those kinds of hassles at least most people don’t. And when you live in tossup states you really need to watch out. No good liberal who is voting for McCain will put up a lawn sign for him without running the risk of being ostracized. So why bother telling pollsters the truth as well as your neighbor?
I’m not at all wild about Senator John McCain and his politics, but he is certainly a much better candidate for president than Senator Obama, especially when it comes to life issues. With that said I’m rather lukewarm myself this election so when I see the mainstream media go wild-eye for Senator Obama and as well as reading the polling data, I’m a bit emotionally detached and can see right through the hubris.
McCain’s going to win. With everything going against him I’m amazed the alleged unbiased polls show him only behind 8-12 points. Remember Senator Obama’s lead over Senator Clinton in California and West Virginia? Well you ain’t seen nothing yet.